Tanker earnings defy all historical comparisons

The tanker market has entered such extraordinary territory that independent owners could be making an additional $400m a day above their original earnings expectations, a windfall that, if sustained for a year, would almost match the entire container shipping industry’s profits during its pandemic-era boom.

In its latest weekly report, broker Hartland estimates that independent owners of VLCCs, suezmaxes and aframaxes/LR2s are collectively generating around $400m in daily profits above what they budgeted at the start of 2026.

The shipbroker calculates that a month of such earnings represents approximately $12bn in additional profits. A quarter would generate $36bn, while a full year would produce an astonishing $146bn.

For context, the world’s containerlines made an estimated $150bn in 2022, their most profitable year on record.

Hartland’s calculations assume just under half the combined tanker fleet is earning today’s extraordinary rates for independent owners, excluding sanctioned vessels and tonnage controlled by state shipping companies, oil majors and commodity traders.

The consultancy estimates average daily earnings over the past month at $643,000 for VLCCs, $457,000 for suezmaxes and $256,000 for aframaxes.

Meanwhile, VLCC earnings on the Middle East Gulf-China route have breached $1.3m a day, according to Veson Nautical.

The astonishing freight market is producing equally remarkable asset valuations.

Veson reports that a 15-year-old VLCC was valued above a newbuilding for the first time at the end of September, while its latest data shows values for vessels of this age surging 196% year-on-year to $163.2m.

Five-year-old VLCCs are now valued at $218m, a record 55% premium over a newbuilding.

Poten & Partners puts the premium for prompt resale tonnage even higher, assessing an immediately available VLCC at $235m against $130m for a newbuilding delivering in 2029.

Middle Eastern buyers are increasingly paying whatever it takes to secure tonnage. Veson recorded 34 tanker purchases by regional interests between July 1 and October 5, up from 21 a year earlier, including 19 VLCCs compared with just one previously.

Poten observed that at current earnings, the extraordinary premiums paid for secondhand ships can be recovered remarkably quickly.

“The market shows eye-popping numbers for secondhand tonnage, but based on current rates, it does not take long to earn back the premium that you have to pay (if somebody is willing to sell you a ship),” Poten stated in its latest weekly report. 

And while much has been written about the giant tanker orderbook casting a shadow over the markets, that is not an immediate threat, especially for VLCCs. Hartland noted that despite 319 VLCCs being on order, just 20 are scheduled for delivery over the six months covering the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2027.

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