BRAZIL · POLITICS
Key Facts
- —What happened Justice Alexandre de Moraes let Flávio Bolsonaro visit his jailed father again.
- —When Monday, 12 October, after a 90-day ban ended on Sunday.
- —The condition No electoral purpose and no messages released, even through third parties.
- —The prisoner Jair Bolsonaro serves 27 years and three months under house arrest.
- —Next visit Flávio says he will see his father on Tuesday, 13 October.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro 87% to win the 25 October runoff (12 October, 1:14 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 87% and Kalshi at 88% (Lula: 13% and 13%), as of 12 October, 2:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Brazil’s Supreme Court has lifted a 90-day ban on the conservative frontrunner’s visits to his jailed father. The ruling comes 13 days before the 25 October presidential runoff.
Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes on Monday, 12 October, authorised Flávio Bolsonaro to visit his father again. Former president Jair Bolsonaro, an ally of US President Donald Trump, is serving a coup sentence under house arrest in Brasília.
Flávio, the conservative Liberal Party (PL) candidate, faces President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the runoff on Sunday, 25 October. The decision restores his regular access to his father, but it bars any campaign use of the meetings.
What Moraes Decided
Moraes allowed the visits to resume “at the same times, conditions and security measures previously set.” The decision, quoted by the news portal g1, keeps a ban on any “political-electoral purpose.”
It also bars spreading “any manifestos or statements, including by third parties, regardless of the medium used.” Moraes ordered that the Federal District’s public security office and the police custody unit guarding Bolsonaro be notified.
Jair Bolsonaro’s defence filed the request on Monday, 5 October, the Brasília daily Correio Braziliense reported. The Prosecutor-General’s Office, which brings federal cases before the Supreme Court, did not object because it saw no new breaches.
Why the Visits Were Suspended
Moraes suspended the visits on 13 July after finding that Flávio had used one to collect a letter from his father. The letter, which backed Flávio’s candidacy, was then published on social media, g1 reported.
Correio Braziliense said Moraes treated this as a misuse of the visits that breached the house-arrest rules. Those rules bar Jair Bolsonaro from using social media, directly or through third parties.
The 90-day sanction ended on Sunday, 11 October, and Moraes found no new facts to justify extending it. Neither report names any other visitor affected by Monday’s decision.
The Supreme Court sentenced Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years and three months for crimes including a coup attempt. He has served the term at home since Moraes granted humanitarian house arrest after a bout of pneumonia in March.
Flávio Says He Will Visit on Tuesday
Flávio welcomed the ruling after a Mass for Our Lady of Aparecida, Brazil’s patron saint, at Brasília Cathedral on Monday. He said court rules prevent a visit on the public holiday, so he will see his father on Tuesday.
“I am anxious, it has been more than three months without being able to see him,” he told reporters, according to g1. He called the earlier ban a decision “without any criteria” or legal basis and called his father “a victim of an injustice.”
Jair Bolsonaro lives in the Jardim Botânico district of Brasília, where the visits take place under police custody. His running mate, Alfredo Gaspar, and his wife, Fernanda, were with him at the Mass, g1 reported.
What It Means for You
For US investors, the ruling keeps the Bolsonaro family at the centre of a runoff that bettors expect Flávio to win. New York-listed Brazilian shares such as Petrobras and Vale are exposed to the outcome and the policies that follow.
The case also touches US-Brazil relations, which soured in 2025 over Jair Bolsonaro’s prosecution. The US Treasury sanctioned Moraes on 30 July 2025 over the Bolsonaro case, then lifted the sanctions on 12 December 2025.
Any new message from Jair Bolsonaro to voters would now breach a court order and could trigger another sanction. That makes the content of Tuesday’s visit, and anything said afterwards, a test of the order.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket’s US$180 million market, Flávio Bolsonaro stood at 87% and Lula at 12.5% (12 October, 1:14 p.m. ET). Kalshi, regulated in the US by the CFTC, showed Flávio at 88% and Lula at 13% (11:07 a.m. ET).
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 87.1% · Lula 12.5% (US$180 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 88% · Lula 13%
As of 12 October, 2:20 pm ET (19:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The full text of the decision was not available on the Supreme Court’s public portal on Monday evening. The fixed visiting days and hours, set in an earlier order, were not restated in the reports.
It is not known whether Jair Bolsonaro will try to address voters before 25 October. The reports do not say what sanction would follow a new breach.
What Comes Next
Flávio plans to visit his father on Tuesday, 13 October, under the existing security rules. The runoff against Lula takes place on Sunday, 25 October.
The ruling does not change Jair Bolsonaro’s sentence, his house arrest or his ban on public statements. It also has no bearing on the separate electoral court cases in the campaign.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Flávio Bolsonaro?
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the presidential candidate of the conservative Liberal Party (PL). He is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and faces Lula in the 25 October runoff.
Why is Jair Bolsonaro under house arrest?
The Supreme Court of Brazil sentenced him to 27 years and three months for crimes including a coup attempt. He serves the term at his home in Brasília under rules that bar him from social media.
Why were the visits stopped?
Moraes suspended them for 90 days on 13 July after Flávio published a letter from his father on social media. The court saw this as a breach of the house-arrest conditions.
Can Flávio campaign with his father now?
No, Moraes barred any political or electoral purpose for the visits. Any manifesto or statement from Jair Bolsonaro, even through third parties, remains prohibited.
Who is Alexandre de Moraes?
Moraes is the Supreme Court justice who oversees the coup case against Jair Bolsonaro and the enforcement of his sentence. The US Treasury sanctioned him in July 2025 over cases including the Bolsonaro trial, then lifted the sanctions in December 2025.
Sources: Supreme Federal Court (STF), house arrest decision, 3 July 2026; US Treasury, Moraes sanctions, 30 July 2025; OFAC, sanctions removal, 12 December 2025; g1, Moraes decision; g1, Flávio Bolsonaro remarks; Correio Braziliense (all accessed 12 October 2026).