BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Sunday, 25 October, 12:16 p.m. ET · Source: TV Senado (Federal Senate TV), NSC Total (Santa Catarina news site), O Liberal (Pará daily)
Key Facts
- What happened Kassio Nunes Marques, president of Brazil’s electoral court (TSE), said voting in the runoff is going “within what was expected.”
- When He expects the result between 8:30 and 9 p.m. in Brasília, the capital, which is 7:30 to 8 p.m. ET.
- The vote Brazilians pick their next president in a runoff, a second round between the top two candidates, on Sunday 25 October.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 81% chance and Lula 20% (Sunday 25 October, 12:17 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 80% and Kalshi at 81% (Lula: 19% and 21%), as of 25 October, 12:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Brazil’s electoral court expects to announce the winner of Sunday’s presidential runoff between 7:30 and 8 p.m. ET. Court president Kassio Nunes Marques said voting is going “within what was expected,” according to TV Senado, the Brazilian Senate’s TV channel and NSC Total, a news site in Santa Catarina state.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0%, Lula 49.0%
45 national polls from 21 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
The result decides the Brazil election 2026 runoff between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, and Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The race matters for Brazilian stocks and the real, the national currency; see our Brazil runoff date page for how to follow it.
What the Court President Said
Nunes Marques spoke to reporters on election day. “Historically we set a fictional benchmark of 8:30 p.m. Brasília time, but it falls around 8:30 and 9,” he said, as quoted by O Liberal, a daily newspaper in Pará state (translated from Portuguese).
He added that “everything” is running “within what was expected,” according to O Liberal. The TSE is the court that organises Brazil’s elections, runs the electronic voting machines and announces official results.
Why the Timing Matters for Markets
Brazil counts its votes electronically, so the winner is usually known within hours of the polls closing. The court’s estimate of 7:30 to 8 p.m. ET gives investors and campaigns a window to watch.
If the race is close, the announcement could slip past that window. Nunes Marques called 8:30 p.m. Brasília time a historical benchmark.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 81% chance of winning the runoff and Lula 20% (Sunday 25 October, 12:17 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$198 million in bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 80.4% · Lula 18.5% (US$198 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 81% · Lula 21%
As of 25 October, 12:20 pm ET (16:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, watch for price moves when the court announces the result tonight. Our Brazil election 2026 guide explains the stakes, and the Brazil election polls lists every survey before the vote.
If you follow US trade or politics, the winner will lead Brazil’s government in its dealings with Washington. Market odds are bets and are not official results.
What Is Not Known
The court has not said whether any part of the count could delay the announcement. Official results come only from the TSE, and until it confirms them, neither candidate has won.
This article will be updated if the court changes its estimate. It does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will Brazil’s runoff result be announced?
Court president Kassio Nunes Marques expects it between 8:30 and 9 p.m. in Brasília, or 7:30 to 8 p.m. ET, on Sunday 25 October.
Who is Kassio Nunes Marques?
He is the president of Brazil’s electoral court, the TSE, which runs the election and announces official results.
How is Brazil’s runoff voting going?
Nunes Marques said everything is running within what was expected. He gave that assessment on election day, Sunday 25 October.
Who is running in Brazil’s runoff?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, faces Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro. The winner becomes Brazil’s next president.
What do prediction markets say about the runoff?
On Polymarket, Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 81% and Lula at 20% (12:17 p.m. ET, 25 October). These are bets, not polls or official results.
Sources: TV Senado (Federal Senate TV), 25 October 2026; NSC Total, 25 October 2026; O Liberal, 25 October 2026; Polymarket, 25 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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