The start of the heating season this autumn is accompanied by a new geopolitical upheaval in the energy markets, which is already taking its toll ... on the most strained household budgets.
According to Roams' calculations based on data from the IDAE (institute for energy diversification and saving), households using natural gas will face an average cost of 741.61 euros between mid-October and the end of March, with costs potentially rising to 1,300 euros.
Although the 2024 reform of the regulated electricity tariff (PVP) cushions these price spikes, tariffs indexed to the free market remain exposed to these fluctuations, meaning that those who use electric heating systems will pay an average of 511.83 euros.
The price of gas in Europe has risen by around 14 euros/MWh since 5 October, which translates into an increase of more than 20 euros in the bill, according to estimates by Tempos Energía. Three out of every four euros of this rise are due to a campaign by Iran to drive down oil prices, which Tempos Energía links to the US mid-term elections on 3 November.
Its experts project that, at the current rate, gas prices will reach between 95 and 105 euros/MWh by the time of the election and drive up electricity prices in early 2027. Specifically, it will account for one in every six euros of the bill in January and more than one in every four in February.
However, the electricity bill varies depending on the property's floor area and the climate of the place of residence. An analysis by Roams reveals a difference of more than 1,000 euros between heating a flat on the Mediterranean coast and a detached house in the interior plateau. Heating a flat with gas costs an average of 421 euros, compared with 779 euros for a detached house.
For electric heating, the cost is 252 euros in flats compared with 552 euros in detached houses. By region, the interior areas of Spain record the highest costs (697 euros for gas and 488 for electricity). The national range varies from 245 euros for a flat on the Mediterranean coast with regulated electricity to 1,283 euros for a detached house in the interior with unregulated gas.
"Today, when it comes to gas, the regulated market is between 31% and 35% cheaper than the liberalised market. The same applies to electricity: the regulated tariff works out cheaper in five out of six cases," Roams energy expert Sergio Soto states.
Homeowners' associations are paying up to 16,000 euros more
The extra costs hit collective properties just as hard. The Ocu consumers' organisation warns that most owners' associations are paying too much due to uncompetitive tariffs and excessive power capacity. For communal electricity, the Ocu estimates the extra cost at up to 1,500 euros a year for a standard supply (6.94 kW and 5,500 kWh), plus a further 314 euros for contracting excessive peak power, which was found in 84 per cent of the bills reviewed.
In blocks with gas-fired central heating, residents pay on average 54% more than under the regulated TUR tariff: an extra cost of 3,515 euros a year for a reference consumption of 133,000 kWh (RL4 tariff). In large developments with usage of 630,000 kWh, the savings from switching to the TUR tariff exceed 16,000 euros a year.
The financial burden of paying these bills goes hand in hand with structural deficiencies in homes. The 4th UCI observatory on housing and sustainability reveals that 46.4% of Spaniards are unable to maintain a comfortable temperature at home on a regular basis, either during the cold or hot months. Only 9.5% manage to do so all the time and 44.1% most of the time, compared with 27.6% occasionally, 14% rarely and 4.8% never.
The problem hits low-income households and the south of mainland Spain particularly hard: Murcia (57%), Extremadura (55.2%) and Andalucía (55%) face the greatest heating difficulties, in contrast to Castilla y León, Cantabria and Aragon, where two in three households do manage to stay comfortable.
Although 92.5% are aware that energy efficiency affects their bills, the housing stock remains vulnerable. Faced with price volatility, experts identify the energy-efficient refurbishment of roofs, facades and boilers as the only structural solution.
As director of renovation at UCI Laura Visier points out, "the challenge is not just how much energy costs, but how much each home needs to achieve comfortable conditions. Energy-efficient refurbishment makes it possible to reduce that dependence, keep costs down and improve households' quality of life".