It looks like the gloves are off from Zelensky against Trump, calling POTUS out for going all in with Putin by lifting the diesel ban, pulling Starlink and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, and suggesting that $100 billion in immobilized CBR assets will be freed for use by Russia as part of any ceasefire deal.
Let’s get this right: this means Ukrainian lives will likely be lost because of Trump’s actions.
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Zelensky is here, opting to go above Trump’s head and appeal to the American people and calling Trump out for his treachery.
It’s a high-stakes game for Zelensky, as it could mean Trump literally goes all in behind Putin. That could mean pulling all military support, lifting sanctions, and pressuring European allies to do the same.
Zelensky seems to have made up his mind that whatever Trump does now, Ukraine has no choice but to fight on, and he assumes European states will stand by him.
I think the latter is the case; as for Europe, the survival of Ukraine against Russian aggression is now more important than US support. Europe has no option but to continue to back Ukraine, as the longer Ukraine survives, the more time it has to build its own autonomous defense capability to counter the long-term and existential threat from Russia, and the winding down of the US security backstop for Europe.
Zelensky is gambling that by calling out Trump he will TACO and European allies will stay by his side.
But make no bones about this, the NATO alliance is at the point of breaking here – that is how far Trump has taken this. Trump has pushed NATO to the point of fracture over Ukraine – and that’s a huge win for Putin and China.
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Zelensky will be hoping that ultimately Trump does not want to go down in history as the US president that broke NATO, the most successful defensive alliance in history.
The news that Witkoff and Kushner offered Russia the unfreezing of $100bn in immobilized CBR assets as an incentive to abide by a ceasefire is another incredible unilateral action by the Trump administration against the wishes and interests of allies. And it is further rewarding the aggressor – Russia.
But I would also add that it’s a sad indictment of Europe and its foot-dragging over the past four-plus years, doing very little to move from immobilization to freezing, seizing, and allocating these assets to Ukraine. Because of European inaction on the immobilized CBR asset issue, Europe has now been left hostage to this rogue action by the Trump administration. Well done, Belgium!
And on the immobilized CBR asset issue, it was never really about legal or economic aspects – the risks there were always overblown and could easily have been resolved. But it was about the politics and leadership in Europe, which have been sadly lacking.
See the original in the author’s @tashecon blog here.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
Timothy Ash is a London-based senior emerging markets sovereign strategist for Bluebay Asset Management Company.