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Tornadoes in Southern California? Apparently, that’s a real possibility this week after weather experts warned of the first significant storm this season amid a strong El Niño.
A heavy storm system is expected to bump into the SoCal region, the National Weather Service warned, lasting from Wednesday through Thursday.
There will be heavy rain along the Central and Southern California coast, from Monterey and Big Sur to Santa Barbara, Malibu, Long Beach and Newport Beach, at a slight risk of flash flooding.
Most areas are forecast to get 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, with upwards of 3 inches possible. Downtown Los Angeles could pick up 1 to 1.5 inches of rain, potentially making it the city’s wettest October since 2009.
“We are seeing rain totals trending upward,” said Bryan Lewis, a meteorologist, told the San Francisco Chronicle. “Late Wednesday morning through late Thursday morning will probably be the peak of it.”
There is cause for concern of debris flow as the rain hits burn scars where a mix of rock, mud and other substances could crash into Highway 1, the U.S. Geological Survey said.
The wetter-than-normal season may also even produce tornadoes for Southern California, though that risk is much higher far in Arizona, meteorologists said.
There’s the potential for strong and damaging wind gusts up to 60 miles per hour from small, intense thunderstorms that could form along the coast. Those winds can form a tornado, though the tornado is likely short-lived.
The El Niño season has warmed ocean temperatures up to 10 degrees above normal, which adds heat and moisture to the storm system as it heads to the coast.
A very strong El Niño in 1983 helped form a tornado that damaged more than 100 homes in Los Angeles.
The weather service placed the coast from Monterey to Orange County at a marginal risk of severe weather Wednesday, with a low chance of tornadoes. Flood watches are also in effect for the next two days, the weather service said.
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