On Abdullah’s promise of Statehood

Almost two years ago, National Conference (NC) Vice-President Omar Abdullah, then 54 years old, was beaming over his massive electoral victory over the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) by winning 42 seats in the 90-member J&K Assembly. The BJP won 29 seats while the PDP won just three. As Mr. Abdullah completes two years in power, the once wary to-be-Chief-Minister of a young and powerless Union Territory (UT), comes across as visibly dejected and enervated.

Mr. Abdullah’s victory in the 2024 elections was an inflection point not only for J&K but also for the NC, which has ruled the region for more than four decades. The mass electoral participation, with a 63.8% voter turnout, in a region that has been marred with violence and has seen election boycotts since the 1990s, was perplexing but also a high note for the party. The faith shown by the people demanded that immediate attention be given to the work which needed to be done across different regions of J&K. In Kashmir, people expected him to end the sense of siege; both bureaucratic and with respect to security.

State of anticipation: on Jammu and Kashmir and Statehood

Even since J&K was downgraded and split into the two Union Territories of J&K and Ladakh, both regions remained restive to certain degrees. While in the face of growing agitation in Ladakh, the Centre has agreed to discuss provisions under Article 371, to grant it special status once again, Statehood for J&K remains a distant dream. 

Statehood, which may not help in addressing the political aspiration in J&K, remains key for Mr. Abdullah to retain the party’s grip over its voters. The first Cabinet meeting in October 2024 passed a resolution which called for the “restoration of Statehood in its original form”. After its passage, Mr. Abdullah had met Prime Minister Narendra Modi and presented the Cabinet resolution, which also underscored the J&K government’s “dedication to safeguarding the identity and constitutional rights of the region’s residents”.

However, the cold shoulder shown by the Centre towards the demand for Statehood has visibly depleted the political capital of Mr. Abdullah, whose party lost the bye-elections in Budgam in 2025; the seat was won by Mr. Abdullah in 2024.

Attempt at reinvention

Failing to impress upon the Centre the necessity to engage with the NC on the question of Statehood, the party seems to have resolved to harden its stance. The recent resolution by the party in the J&K Assembly on September 28 on Statehood, with reference to the 1953 special position and the 2000 resolution for greater autonomy, was aimed at hardening the party’s position in the face of waning popularity among the masses.

Mr. Abdullah, who consciously chose not to have a confrontational but a working relationship with the Centre, seems to be set on a new path. Moreover, holding a protest at Jantar Mantar on July 20 this year and its growing presence in the INDIA bloc are indicators that Mr. Abdullah is reinventing itself. This has come after his attempts at praising Mr. Modi at public functions as well as on social media yielded little for him in a governance model wherein he does not have a greater say.

Mr. Abdullah’s hard posturing, evident in the Assembly where he named the top officials going against him, comes in the backdrop of his balancing act yielding no results. The J&K Lieutenant-Governor Manoj Sinha’s complete grip over the police, bureaucracy and universities has marginalised and enervated the Abdullah government as well as his persona. The affront Mr. Abdullah faced at the hands of Chief Secretary Atal Dulloo and Law Secretary Achal Sethi has further dwarfed the Chief Minister’s stature. Both the officials, without taking the Chief Minister into confidence, wrote to the Speaker of the J&K Assembly and opposed the government’s bid to bring a resolution on Statehood, terming it “sub judice”.

Two years on, the Transaction of Business rules, essential to determine the powers and limits of the Chief Minister, Council of Ministers and the L-G in the Union Territory remains undecided, with the proposal shuttling between the offices of the Lok Bhavan and the Chief Minister’s office.

It seems that Mr. Abdullah’s choices remain limited and fraught with repercussions. Batting for Delhi in J&K will result in losing his voter base. On the other hand, attempts at doing what the voters want will result in antagonising the Centre.