I understand that this is not just about a collective philosophy, because it depends on what weapons you have to define how you want your offense to attack.
But if you build a team that often cannot figure out its production without home runs, then what we saw throughout the 2026 season with the Houston Astros happens.
They had a good core of hitters, but they were very dependent on how the health and offensive rhythm of Yordan Alvarez, Isaac Paredes, and Jeremy Pena were going.
The Astros led the league with 226 home runs, which placed them in first place in slugging at .417. Shouldn’t that be enough for them to have managed to be among the best teams at scoring runs? Probably yes, but the problem here is that this Houston team did not manage to take advantage of that power.
To start, 77 of their 226 home runs came with the bases empty, leaving them in 16th place in the Majors in that statistic. Obviously, to produce runs you don’t just need home runs, but also for the key hits to come at the necessary moment, in addition to having players who can reach base consistently and put pressure on opposing pitchers.
What is still not working in the offense?
As I started by saying, it is more about the mentality behind what you build, and if you don’t have enough players capable of changing the game, then the problems that were common for the 2026 Astros will appear.
In the regular season, Houston finished fifth in the league with 4.53 runs scored per game, despite leading in home runs.
What accounts for part of that contrast? Two key points: they were 10th in on-base percentage at .315, and finished 19th in slugging (.409) with runners on base.
The two teams that reached the World Series this year, the Milwaukee Brewers (.433, fifth place) and the Tampa Bay Rays (.411, 17th place), surpassed the Astros’ production, even though they could not be among the elite in home runs hit.
That said, let’s move to the next part that explains the inability to produce runs without depending so much on home runs. Both Milwaukee and Tampa Bay, throughout the year, have produced enough runs to be able to survive and win baseball games with their mix of elite pitching and defense.
They have taken advantage of their ability to make contact and baserunning without depending on home runs, but when they have needed them, the impact of both teams was more timely than that of the Astros.
The Brewers hit 83 of their 154 home runs with runners on base, generating an impressive 53.8%, while the Rays recorded 64 of their 169, a percentage of 37.8 that was also better than Houston’s 34.1. Then we can see all the other notable differences, as the Astros finished in last place in the league in stolen bases for the first time since the 2001 season.
Look at a couple of details in this graphic. We have the two Houston teams that have finished in last place in the league in stolen bases, and three others that finished in 14th place.
If we compare the 2026 team against the 2001 and 2021 teams, there are differences that are easy to see. Something they have had in common is that each of them led the league, but the 2026 version could not play above .500.
The 2021 and 2001 teams were in first and second place in batting average and on-base percentage, respectively. So I think that, in a certain way, that small difference in numbers helped create a margin in the average number of runs scored per game, which in both cases exceeded the 2026 mark.
Therefore, I think it is quite clear what the added value should be for an offense that still needs more speed and efficiency to find success without having to depend only on hard-hit balls.
Speed was not a high added value in the Astros’ major successes over the last decade, but there were many contact hitters with whom the offense could expand more. We often enjoyed some hit-and-run plays, with players who could steal bases and also become a threat because of their ability to take an extra base.
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