Is Bayern Munich’s Manuel Neuer okay?

Sometimes, Manuel Neuer just needs to feel alive.

Bayern Munich’s swashbuckling goalkeeper will dare to venture upfield, taking the kinds of touches nobody in their right mind expects—baiting opposing attackers almost for sport—before taking the ball away and passing it safely to a teammate to ignite Bayern’s possession.

It dazzles when it works… and then sometimes, it doesn’t work.

At 40, Neuer is a touch slower than he’s been. Or maybe opposing forwards just have more energy in their legs these days. Whatever the case, Bayern kicked off with a back pass to their keeper, and Neuer chose entirely the wrong time to rodeo on Saturday against Augsburg. The result? A 1-0 deficit less than ten seconds into the game, more dropped points, and a fresh wave of panic over whether the GOAT still deserves to baaa -sk in the Bavarian limelight.

Bayern’s new, old GK crisis

Make no mistake: Neuer’s mistake against Augsburg was an utter calamity. The plan was reasonable enough: draw in the press, then chip it over the top—springing Bayern’s build-up through the speedy Alphonso Davies while taking three Augsburg players out of the play.

But Neuer misjudged himself badly. And lately, it’s been happening too often.

Sofascore took a dive into Neuer’s recent stats, and they do not flatter. Since detailed statistics began to be tracked in 2015/16, Neuer’s total of 15 errors in Bundesliga play leading directly to goals breaks down this way: 10 out of 248 appearances followed by 5 out of his last 17. It speaks to a keeper whose judgment is slipping, or whose body is no longer able to pull off the audacious maneuvers—ma-neuers?—that his mind is able to conjure up.

Neuer’s stature within the game has continued to decline. Last January, Kicker rated Neuer in its third tier of Bundesliga goalkeepers—“national class,” behind “international class” and “world class”—and eighth overall (nobody made it to “world class” status) in the league. His declining shot-stopping statistics have been a talking point for years at this point.

For his part, Neuer has been dismissive of the numbers. For example, in 2024, he responded that “it’s always about the quality of the chances when it comes to the goals we’ve conceded. That’s why the stats don’t matter for me at all.” After Augsburg’s second goal, Neuer again pointed to the nature of the chance and the problems leading up to the shot.

Is there something to that? Maybe.

By the numbers

Let’s set aside the fairly-raised howler critique for the moment and take a look at Neuer’s save % over the phases of his career. Stats via FBRef:

As one might expect, the relationship between save percentage and shots on target per 90 is not linear. There are underlying reasons why some teams concede a much greater volume of shots on target; dropping the exact same quality of goalkeeper from one team to another with a different playstyle will not necessarily produce a save percentage that scales accordingly.

In his Schalke era, Neuer starred for a reasonably competitive but inconsistent Schalke side and consistently faced a high volume of shots. He did a great job of saving them—though, of course, his distribution was always his calling card.

At Bayern, Neuer’s legend was forged during that magnificent run starting from 2012/13 through 2016/17, capturing the first five of Bayern’s 11 consecutive league titles. His numbers here are extraordinary, even aberrant, reflecting peak Bayern as well.

After Neuer returned from injury, we saw a brief period under Niko Kovač and a longer tenure encompassing Hansi Flick and Julian Nagelsmann—the latter in an era where Bayern, through ultra-aggressive tactics as well as transfer and injury woes, began conceding considerably more shots on target. Under Tuchel, it reached a nadir; Neuer’s goals allowed per 90 that season (1.45) remains a career high by some distance.

Now under Vincent Kompany, Bayern’s control is back. Neuer’s save percentage remains lower, but getting a shot on his goal to begin with is even rarer—markedly more so than in his heyday.

What to make of all the numbers? It’s hard to be definitive. It is fair to say that both Neuer and the Bayern defense can count their glory days in the past—that was some run to kick off the Bundesliga win streak. But Neuer, who has changed himself, is truly facing different situations than in the past.

Under Kompany, Bayern consistently smothers teams and snuffs out attacks before they launch. Except when it breaks down, and often—as we saw with Augsburg’s second goal—that means it really breaks down.

Neuer certainly could do better, but the special alchemy of those 80% years isn’t coming back. In fact, outside of Bayer Leverkusen’s 2023/24 run, in which the team’s save percentage over the season was 77.1%, only one team has eclipsed 73.0% in the last six full seasons (Union Berlin, with 73.6% in 2022/23).

Bayern’s situation

The broader question is what Bayern and Neuer could have done—or, to the point, whether Neuer is now just another legend hanging on longer than he should.

For that, we have to consider Jonas Urbig’s situation.

The 23-year-old was a part-time starter at 1. FC Köln when Bayern plucked him up, but he has earned rave reviews from his teammates, including Neuer, in his short time here. He was named to Jürgen Klopp’s XXL Germany roster in the expanded September-October international break this year and even given two starts, a sign of serious confidence in his ability to challenge for Germany’s future No. 1 shirt.

Yet he is young, inexperienced, and clearly benefiting from developing without the direct glare of the spotlight.

Had Neuer retired, let’s not kid ourselves: the treatment of Urbig and his performances wouldn’t be handled with kid gloves. This is a Bayern team expected to comfortably win the Bundesliga this season and contend for the Champions League, and the heat is already high after a few early-season stumbles. Urbig is far from the only keeper on the market Bayern could access, particularly once Neuer’s wages clear off the books. He has not yet been demonstrably better than some of the Bundesliga’s standouts from last season, and he has far from cemented himself as the top keeper of Germany’s current or even next generation. Simply handing him the keys wouldn’t have made sense.

This summer, Bayern was able to ignore the goalkeeper position completely. Next summer, the club can examine a greater body of work from their young gun and evaluate more clearly: do they need to bring in a challenger, or just a backup?

Verdict?

Neuer has to clean up his mistakes, no doubt. But he is also giving his presumptive successor the time and space to ready himself for the role, while ensuring Bayern doesn’t have to worry about goalkeeper depth at all this season (knock on wood). That is the best-case scenario not only for Neuer himself, but for Urbig and Bayern, too.

Legends don’t last forever, and not all of them end in relative calm like this one, with a succession plan in place and all sides working toward a positive send-off. Let’s enjoy this last ride, warts and all.

Join the conversation!

Sign up for a user account and get:

• New, improved notifications system!
• Fewer ads
• Create community posts
• Comment on articles, community posts
• Rec comments, community posts