Democrat Mary Peltola extended her polling lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska on Sunday, with a 6-point advantage three weeks out from Election Day.
The former U.S. representative's edge precedes President Donald Trump's trip to Alaska to rally for Sullivan, who has previously been boosted by his ties to the president but now appears hindered by them amid Trump's declining popularity in the Last Frontier.
In polling, Peltola appears to have overcome allegations from former staffers that she had used slurs and had angry outbursts during her time in the House of Representatives, which her campaign said was in part due to her dealing with grief over the loss of her husband and mother within a few months.
Democrats are hoping Alaska can help deliver the Senate back into the party's control on November 3, alongside Texas, Maine, and a handful of other Republican strongholds.
“Mary welcomes any President visiting the state to hear about the issues Alaskans are facing, and she looks forward to working with President Trump to unleash Alaska energy and lower costs for when she’s elected to the United States Senate," a spokesperson for her campaign told Newsweek. "It doesn’t matter who flies in to try and save Dan Sullivan from his abhorrent record, Alaskans will still hold him accountable for his price hiking agenda this November.
"As Dan Sullivan continues to feel the fallout of his failed policies and support for the war in Iran, Mary will be talking with Alaskans this week ... about how she will fight to lower their costs, take on DC corruption, and put Alaska first.”
Newsweek also reached out to Sullivan's campaign for comment Monday afternoon via email.
Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan: What Latest Polls Show
The latest polling from InsiderAdvantage, of a survey of 1,200 likely voters on October 9 and October 10, showed Peltola on 48.2 percent of the vote during a first round, against 42.6 percent for Sullivan. In the final round of Alaska's ranked choice voting, the potential result would be 50.1 percent to Peltola and 48 percent to Sullivan, the poll showed.
While those surveyed were largely split along party lines, the crosstabs breakdown of the results showed 14.4 percent of Republicans would vote for the Democratic Party candidate.
Another recent poll, conducted on October 1 to October 3 by Alaska Survey Research among 1,512 likely voters, showed Peltola on 51 percent and Sullivan on 49 percent in the final round.
While Sullivan has taken the lead in some polls this year, Peltola has largely been in front, mostly by a few points. The race remains tight in a state that has largely voted for GOP candidates in federal elections in recent years.
"Alaska is impacted by the good Democratic environment just like so many other states are, and Peltola is a strong challenger," Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, previously told Newsweek. "Additionally, Alaska has a top-four, ranked choice voting system that wasn't in place in 2020, and the structure of the ballot (Peltola is the only Democrat) likely aids her as well."
What Prediction Markets Show
Prediction markets have been painting an even bleaker picture for Sullivan.
While the Republican was closely alongside Peltola on Polymarket's odds of a Senate seat win, at around a 50/50 percent split in August, the gap has gradually widened since, with Peltola on 72.5 percent chance of victory compared to 28.5 percent for Sullivan on Monday.
A similar difference was seen on Kalshi, with Peltola on 75 percent and Sullivan 27 percent Monday afternoon.
The larger gap in the two candidates' rankings shows how prediction markets have been more bullish on the Democrat's chances, despite polls showing a far tighter race.
...
When Is the Alaska Trump Rally for Dan Sullivan?
Trump is due to continue his midterms campaign tour this week, despite not being on the ticket himself.
After appearing in Ohio to rally for GOP candidate John Husted on Monday, Trump will hold a rally in red-leaning Wasilla to "promote U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan's reelection," per the Republican National Committee (RNC).
“President Trump's rally on Oct 13th will highlight exactly why Senator Dan S. Sullivan is the firewall to defend Alaska's future from the Lower 48 left," RNC spokesman Nick Poche said in a statement to Alaska Public Media.
While Trump comfortably won Alaska in 2024, his approval rating has slumped in the state throughout 2026, with Alaskans raising concerns about the cost of living and fuel during America's war on Iran, which Sullivan has supported.
Newsweek reached out to the White House for comment Monday afternoon.
Sullivan also saw in-person support from Vice President JD Vance in Fairbanks last week, with Vance warning those at his rally that Democrats would "do whatever they need to do, right up to cheating," in order to win the midterms.
...
Why Alaska Senate Race Matters in the Midterms
Republicans have held both U.S. Senate seats in Alaska since 2014, when Sullivan first won. Senator Lisa Murkowski holds the other seat, having taken over from her father, Frank Murkowski, and she has been a somewhat stronger voice against the Trump administration than her colleague.
Murkowski isn't up for reelection, however, and Sullivan's seat is the one that Democrats hope to flip alongside a handful of others in order to reclaim the upper chamber's majority.
The party is optimistic this time around because Peltola has held statewide federal office before, having been elected to the House of Representatives in 2022, and voter sentiment toward the GOP has noticeably declined since 2024.
Republicans, meanwhile, appear to still have hope Sullivan can keep hold of his seat because of Trump's 13-point lead in 2024, and Sullivan's previous two wins, during which he also outperformed predictions.
Tuesday's rally will offer one of the clearest tests yet of whether the president's political influence remains strong enough in Alaska to help rescue an endangered GOP incumbent.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Samantha Beech and Edward T. Cummins