Kazakhstan’s National Bank has assessed how the country’s banks would withstand a sharp withdrawal of deposits by individuals and businesses. According to the assessment, more than half of the banks would fall short of the required liquidity threshold under an extreme stress scenario, although some would retain substantial liquidity buffers.
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The regulator evaluated banks’ ability to withstand potential deposit outflows by measuring their compliance with the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR). This metric indicates whether a bank has sufficient high-quality liquid assets to cover net cash outflows over a 30-day stress period. The minimum required LCR is 0.9.
Moderate scenario: Most banks retain sufficient liquidity
Under a moderate stress scenario, the National Bank assumed a 10% increase in withdrawals of «stable» retail deposits, a 30% increase in withdrawals of «less stable» retail deposits, and a rise in corporate deposit outflows from 15% to 35%.
Most banks would maintain sufficient liquidity under these conditions. However, some institutions with a high concentration of deposits from either individuals or businesses would see their LCR fall below the required threshold.
Extreme scenario: More than half of banks fall short
The extreme scenario assumes a 30% increase in outflows from «stable» retail deposits and a 60% increase in outflows from «less stable» retail deposits. For corporate deposits, the assumed increase in outflows ranges from 30% to 60%, depending on the category of depositor.
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Under these conditions, more than half of the country’s banks would fail to meet the LCR requirement. Liquidity would deteriorate most sharply if individuals and businesses withdrew funds simultaneously.
Nevertheless, some banks would remain resilient even under these severe conditions, retaining substantial liquidity buffers.
Mid-sized and small banks face greater concentration risks
The National Bank also assessed the concentration of large deposits across the banking sector. Major creditors account for 25% of the sector’s total liabilities.
Large banks have reduced their reliance on individual major depositors, with the share of such funding now ranging from 20% to 30%, according to the assessment. This suggests a more diversified funding base.
Concentration risk is more pronounced among mid-sized banks. For half of the banks assessed, the withdrawal of large deposits could partially or completely deplete their liquidity.
Mid-sized and small banks, which together account for 16% of total banking-sector assets, are particularly vulnerable to this risk. The main concern involves outflows of deposits denominated in tenge.
National Bank assesses overall risks as moderate
Despite the vulnerabilities identified in the stress tests, the National Bank considers the overall risks posed by deposit outflows to Kazakhstan’s banking system to be moderate.