Full Preview, Prediction for MSU's Long-Awaited Game vs. Northwestern

Saturday's game in East Lansing will bring some unusual images for both involved fan bases.

Michigan State (2-4 overall, 0-3 Big Ten) could really use a victory, and there may not be a better time than the present against No. 25 Northwestern (4-1 overall, 1-0 Big Ten).

The dominating storyline this week has been this being Pat Fitzgerald's first shot at his alma mater and the school he coached for 17 seasons. This is also NU's first game as a ranked team since the Wildcats fired Fitzgerald ahead of the 2023 season.

What's also significant is the return to East Lansing for quarterback Aidan Chiles. He was MSU's starting quarterback for all of 2024 and for the first eight games of 2025 before he was benched in favor of Alessio Milivojevic, who will remain on the home sideline Saturday for what will be his 11th career start.

When MSU Has the Ball

It didn't come in a victory, but the second half against Illinois last week was a decent "get right" moment for Michigan State's offense. The Spartans had scored only 26 total points in their three games against Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Wisconsin combined. MSU dropped 31 points in regulation against the Fighting Illini, with 24 of those points coming during the third and fourth quarters.

The question is whether that was a legitimate step forward for Michigan State's offense, or whether it was just the fact that the Spartans were facing an Illinois defense that has really struggled this year. Illinois was playing its second game since it had parted ways with defensive coordinator Bobby Hauck.

Northwestern's defense brings a different challenge. The Wildcats' defense probably isn't as stout as Notre Dame's, Nebraska's, or Wisconsin's, but it's still a tougher group than Illinois'. NU ranks sixth in the Big Ten in scoring defense at 16.2 points allowed per game so far, but the Wildcats are actually down at 16th in the conference for total defense at 380.6 yards allowed per contest.

Indiana is the only team thus far to score 20 points or more against Northwestern this season. That was a 29-23 win for the defending national champs in Bloomington -- two of those points for IU came on a safety as well. NU only allowed seven points vs. Colorado and 13 points vs. Penn State in its other two games against Power Four competition.

Michigan State's early drives will be huge. MSU has been playing catch-up in every game it's played against P4 teams so far, and one reason is an offense that has been largely inept early. The Spartans' opening drives this year have ended with: a touchdown vs. Toledo, a punt, a punt, a punt, a turnover on downs, and another punt.

Michigan State has been outscored 41-3 in the first quarter in its four games against P4-level teams. The opening 15 minutes will be huge, especially for an MSU team that would love to make a statement as an underdog.

When Northwestern Has the Ball

Northwestern's offense may be the most unique attack that Michigan State's defense will face this year. The Wildcats' offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly, is regarded as one of the best offensive minds of this generation in college football.

Kelly is set to break out some unusual things for MSU this week. Northwestern regularly breaks out the wing-T formation, straight out of the 1970s and small-school high school football, and runs it pretty efficiently. Penn State pretty much couldn't stop it two weeks ago, and it will really test the eye discipline of the Spartans' linebacking corps that is dealing with a large number of injuries.

Northwestern will also line up receivers 12 yards or so behind the line of scrimmage sometimes, which is so far back that the player is almost next to the head referee. It's probably inevitable that Kelly calls up something else weird on Saturday, too.

All of this also revolves around Chiles at quarterback. He's been great for Northwestern so far, throwing for 1,172 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Chiles has also gotten into the end zone six times as a rusher so far this season. He'll be facing a very short-handed Michigan State secondary missing its top four corners (Tre Bell, Charles Brantley, Tyran Chappell, Keshawn Williams).

On a macro scale, Northwestern is seventh in the Big Ten with 35.4 points per game. MSU's defense is 14th in the conference at 25.7 points allowed a contest. In yardage, NU is seventh again (437.4 yards per game), and Michigan State is 11th (339.7 yards allowed per game).

Chiles will get a lot of attention, but the Spartans also have a former Wildcat on their defense. That's rush end Kenny Soares Jr., who started his career playing for Fitzgerald in 2022 and stayed at Northwestern for the first two years of the David Braun era.

Final Prediction

Fitzgerald besting his former team would be a heck of a story and a heck of an upset victory for Michigan State, but that feels like the unlikely result for Saturday. Northwestern's playmakers on offense are much better than MSU's, and all the injuries on the Spartans' defense make it tough to see that unit stringing together stops on a consistent basis.

Michigan State's offense shouldn't be overwhelmed against NU's defense, but the Wildcats have held better teams than MSU to low enough totals that Northwestern should be able to get a victory in East Lansing.

Final Score Prediction: No. 25 Northwestern 34, Michigan State 17