Key Facts
- Who: President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Cuban leaders in Havana.
- What: Trump floated a US ship stopping about 50 yards off Cuba’s coast; Havana rejected the threat.
- When: Friday, 23 October 2026, at a Republican rally in Fort Myers, Florida.
- Next: The UN General Assembly holds its annual vote on the US embargo later this month.
- Prediction markets: Kalshi prices a US–Cuba trade deal before 2027 at 16% (10:22 p.m. ET, 23 October).
President Donald Trump said on Friday that US ships returning from operations against Iran could pass Cuba, with one stopping “about 50 yards off the coast.” Cuban leaders answered the same day, rejecting what they called a threat, in the latest turn of the Cuba news we track. The remarks came at a Republican rally in Fort Myers, Florida, a state with a large Cuban-American electorate, 11 days before the US midterm elections on 3 November.
Trump Floats Naval Pressure
Trump told the rally the United States would “take care of Cuba on our way back from Iran,” according to NTD and PBS video of the event. He said Cuba would “raise up their hands” and that he would “send Marco Rubio in to finish up the deal.” No deployment, military order or formal ultimatum had been reported by Saturday, and Washington has not said what the “deal” would contain.
Havana Rejects the Threat
President Miguel Díaz-Canel wrote on X that Washington “does not renounce its ambitions of domination” over Cuba, in a post quoted by Periódico Cubano. Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez wrote that Cuba rejects every threat and said its coast would be an inhospitable place for anyone arriving with hostile aims. Both posts appeared on Friday; their exact times were not published.
Rubio Courts Cubans With a CIA Offer
Rubio posted on X on Friday urging Cubans to seize the moment “through a discrete partnership with the CIA,” as reported by Yahoo News. The agency then published a Spanish-language video with instructions for making contact.
The Pressure Campaign So Far
On 30 January Trump signed an order threatening tariffs on countries that sell oil to Cuba, according to Al Arabiya. In June, Washington sanctioned Cuban entities including the mining firm Geominera and the steelmaker Siderúrgica José Martí, ABC News reported. On 19 October the two governments clashed at UN headquarters in New York, where US Ambassador Mike Waltz led a panel on Cuban human rights ahead of the annual vote on the US embargo.
What Prediction Markets Say
Kalshi, an exchange regulated in the US by the CFTC, prices “Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?” at 16% before 1 January 2027, with 69,008 contracts traded as of 10:22 p.m. ET on 23 October. That is a bet on a deal, not a poll and not a forecast of military action.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For US readers, the remarks show how Cuba policy is entering the closing days of the midterm campaign, where Florida votes carry weight. For travellers and investors, the practical rules still come from sanctions and licences, not from rally speeches.
What Is Not Known
It is unclear whether the ship idea is an operational plan, a negotiating line or campaign rhetoric. The content of the “deal,” any date for a Rubio trip and the exact date of the UN vote were not public.
Sources
PBS NewsHour · NTD · Periódico Cubano · PassBlue · Kalshi · The Rio Times Cuba hub
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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Frequently Asked Questions
What did Trump say about Cuba?
At a Fort Myers rally on 23 October, Trump said ships returning from Iran could pass Cuba and that one would stop about 50 yards off the coast. He said Rubio would be sent to finish up the deal.
How did Cuba respond?
President Díaz-Canel accused Washington of ambitions of domination, and Foreign Minister Rodríguez said Cuba rejects every threat.
Is a US military operation under way?
No deployment, military order or ultimatum had been reported as of 24 October. The remarks are a presidential suggestion so far.
When is the UN vote on the US embargo?
The annual vote is expected at the end of October, and no firm date had been confirmed in the reporting we reviewed.
What do prediction markets say?
Kalshi prices a US–Cuba trade deal before 2027 at 16% as of 10:22 p.m. ET on 23 October. Prices are bets, not polls.
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