What a difference a few days can make for the Carolina Panthers. They started the week as underdogs heading into Philadelphia, but then Jalen Hurts was ruled out with a superficial blood clot, and the betting market quickly shifted toward Carolina. Suddenly, the Panthers are getting a level of respect we haven't seen much of lately.
Reuters reported Thursday that Hurts will miss Sunday's game and Tanner McKee is expected to start in his place. I'll admit, watching what happened to the line after that news made me do a double take. But once you get past the initial shock, some of these numbers aren't as crazy as they might look.
Bryce Young has been dealing, Tetairoa McMillan just went off for 192 yards, and Chuba Hubbard finally got rolling against Detroit. So I went through the numbers at DraftKings Sportsbook, and a few immediately caught my attention.
Wait, the Panthers are favored in Philadelphia?
Philadelphia opened as a 1.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, but that didn't last. After the Hurts news broke, Sports Illustrated's betting team reported that the line swung five points, moving Carolina all the way to a 3.5-point favorite. The number has continued moving since then, which shows just how much uncertainty Hurts' absence has created around this game.
Do I completely trust Carolina as a road favorite yet? I'm not there, because this is still a 2-2 Panthers team, and Philadelphia still has plenty of talent even without Hurts. The Eagles have dropped three straight, though, while Carolina went into its bye after beating Detroit 32-26.
There's another reason I don't think we can chalk the entire shift up to Hurts being out. Carolina has scored 121 points through four games, the most the franchise has ever scored over the first four games of a season. The Panthers have actually done something to earn some of this respect, and let's be real, we haven't been able to say that very often lately.
Bryce Young's passing number deserves some attention
Young's passing-yard total is hovering around 240 yards at DraftKings Sportsbook, and this was probably the number that surprised me the most. According to the Panthers' official statistics, he's thrown for 1,268 yards through four games, which comes out to 317 per game. That's a pretty big gap between what Young has actually been producing and the number we're seeing for Sunday.
It gets even more interesting when you look at his game-by-game totals. Young has thrown for 361, 287, 291, and 329 yards, meaning his lowest output of the season is still well above Sunday's number. Four games isn't a huge sample, but he's been remarkably consistent throwing the football so far.
There is something that gives me pause, and that's how this game could unfold with McKee starting instead of Hurts. If Carolina gets ahead early, Dave Canales may not need Young throwing it 35 or 40 times. Still, we've spent years wondering whether Young could consistently push the football downfield, and now we're looking at a number around 240 yards and wondering why it isn't higher.
Chuba Hubbard's number isn't as easy as it looks
Hubbard finally looked like Hubbard against Detroit, carrying the ball 20 times for a season-high 122 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 6.1 yards per carry. The Panthers' official stats have him at 306 yards on 61 attempts this season, an even 5.0 yards per carry. His rushing-yard total was listed at 71.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook in Thursday's published odds.
My first reaction was that 72 yards doesn't seem like much after what we just watched against Detroit. Then I went back and looked at Hubbard's first three games, and he didn't reach 70 yards in any of them. That's why this number isn't nearly as simple as it first appears.
I'm not ready to assume one big afternoon suddenly means Carolina's running game is fixed. At the same time, if the Panthers are playing from ahead Sunday, this could turn into exactly the kind of game where Canales keeps feeding Hubbard and tries to shorten things in the second half. Of all the numbers I looked at, this is probably the one I could talk myself into either direction on the easiest.
What do we do with Tetairoa McMillan now?
Good luck figuring out what to expect from McMillan after what he just did to Detroit. He caught 14 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns, and the Panthers noted in their Inside the Numbers breakdown that he became the first player in franchise history with at least 10 catches, 175 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the same game.
He enters Sunday with 26 catches for 385 yards through four games and is averaging 14.8 yards per reception.
His receiving-yard total was listed at 66.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook in Thursday's published odds. Nobody should expect another 192-yard afternoon every week because that's ridiculous, but 66.5 is a completely different conversation. Young clearly isn't afraid to look his way, and McMillan has already shown he can turn a handful of opportunities into a big afternoon.
What I like about McMillan right now is that Carolina doesn't have to force everything his way. Jalen Coker is back, Darren Waller has become another option for Young, and suddenly defenses have several guys they have to account for. If Carolina continues spreading the ball around, McMillan might actually get some better opportunities instead of seeing his production disappear.
After watching him put up 192 yards, I'm not trying to guess what he's going to do for an encore. I'm more interested in seeing how Philadelphia decides to defend him and whether Young keeps looking his way when the Eagles start adjusting.
Are we starting to look at Carolina differently?
That's the question I kept coming back to while looking through all of this. The Panthers went from underdogs to favorites on the road against the Eagles, Young has a passing-yard number that somehow feels low, Hubbard is coming off 122 yards, and we're already wondering what McMillan can possibly do for an encore.
Think about where this franchise was not that long ago, and those are some pretty wild conversations to be having.
I'm not ready to say Carolina has arrived because four games isn't enough for that. Philadelphia also isn't suddenly a pushover because Hurts isn't playing, and McKee has played well enough in limited opportunities that Carolina can't just show up and expect to win. There are still plenty of reasons to be cautious about this matchup.
But there does seem to be something different about this Panthers offense. Maybe it's Young taking another step, maybe it's finally having legitimate weapons around him, or maybe it's simply what happens when a young team starts believing it can score with anybody. Whatever it is, the betting market has noticed too, and now Carolina gets another chance Sunday to show whether that respect is deserved.
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