GUYANA · MINING
Key Facts
- —The country Guyana is the English-speaking country on South America’s Caribbean coast whose economy now runs on offshore oil, with gold as its largest export after oil.
- —Why it matters Gold is priced in US dollars on the same market American investors trade, so what Guyana earns from it moves with the gold price.
- —Why now The full January to June count is dated late August 2026, and gold has since fallen from its January peak.
- —What happened Gold export receipts reached US$826.2 million in the first half of 2026, up US$269.8 million, or 48.5 percent, from US$556.3 million a year earlier.
- —The numbers The average price per ounce exported rose 59.1 percent to US$4,528.20, while the ounces shipped fell 6.7 percent to 182,451.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket traders put the chance that front-month gold futures settle at or above US$5,000 by the end of December at about 10.5 percent, as of 10:00 p.m. ET on Monday, 19 October.
- —What it means for you Guyana’s gold income follows the gold price, not the tonnage mined, so a falling price cuts it quickly. The US Treasury sanctioned one of Guyana’s largest gold exporters in June 2024, which makes provenance checks matter for American buyers.
- —Still open It is not explained why exports fell while declared mining output rose 11.3 percent, and where the gold was sold is not stated.
Guyana earned US$826.2 million from gold exports in the first six months of 2026, up US$269.8 million, or 48.5 percent, on the same period of 2025. The Bank of Guyana, the central bank, says the whole gain came from price, because the country shipped fewer ounces than a year earlier.
That matters to American readers because gold is the biggest thing Guyana sells after oil, and it is priced in US dollars on the same market US investors trade. The numbers come from two official reports dated 27 and 28 August 2026, and Kaieteur News, a Georgetown daily, brought them back into view on Monday, 19 October.
What the Figures Show
Gold brought in US$826.2 million in the half, against US$556.3 million in 2025 and US$408.9 million in 2024, so receipts have roughly doubled in two years. Crude oil earned US$15,053.7 million and made up 92.9 percent of all exports, while gold made up 5.1 percent.
Among exports other than oil, gold was worth about 72 percent of the US$1,146 million total, which was itself up 24.6 percent. Rice came next at US$97.8 million, down from US$123.1 million a year earlier.
Price Did All the Work
The central bank puts the average price Guyana received at US$4,528.20 per ounce, up 59.1 percent from US$2,845.95 a year earlier. The volume exported fell 6.7 percent, or 13,035 ounces, to 182,451 ounces.
Gold set a record in January, and the central bank puts the settlement high at about US$5,318.40 per ounce on Thursday, 29 January. It then slid, and the bank says gold closed June at about US$4,007.69, which is 24.6 percent below that peak.
Guyana’s finance ministry puts the first-half average market price at US$4,694.2 per ounce, up 52.5 percent on a year earlier. It calls the rise an upside risk for non-oil exports, the trade balance and royalties, and it warns that a price fall would reduce those benefits.
Mining Output Is Rising Too
Declared gold output rose 11.3 percent to 232,287 troy ounces in the half, from 208,757 a year earlier. A troy ounce is the standard unit for gold and weighs about 31.1 grams.
Small and medium miners lifted their declarations 18.0 percent, from 137,441 to 162,182 ounces. The one large operator, Aurora Gold Mine Inc., part of Zijin Mining Group of China, declared 70,105 ounces, down 1.7 percent from 71,316.
Exports and declarations are separate counts, and this half they moved in opposite directions. The central bank blames the lower export volume on “lower declarations”, although its own mining table shows declarations up, and neither report reconciles the two.
Where the Gold Goes and Who Watches It
The US Treasury said in June 2024 that Guyanese gold is sold on international markets including the United States, Canada, the United Arab Emirates and the European Union. Neither the central bank nor the finance ministry publishes a country-by-country breakdown for the first half of 2026.
On Tuesday, 11 June 2024, the Treasury sanctioned Nazar Mohamed, his son Azruddin Mohamed and their company, Mohamed’s Enterprise, which it described as one of Guyana’s largest gold exporters. It alleged that the company left more than 10,000 kilograms of gold out of import and export declarations between 2019 and 2023 and avoided more than US$50 million in duty taxes.
The State Department’s March 2025 narcotics report added that gold smuggling in Guyana often facilitates money laundering, as criminals use illegal gold sales to disguise illicit funds. Guyana’s law requires all gold produced in the country to be sold to the Guyana Gold Board, a state body set up in 1982, or to a licensed dealer.
The central bank’s accounts show it bought US$314.7 million of foreign currency from the Guyana Gold Board in the half. The report does not say how that sum relates to the US$826.2 million of export receipts.
What the Ministry Expects for the Full Year
The ministry now projects gold export receipts of US$2,307.0 million for all of 2026, against US$1,754.4 million in the budget and US$1,617.9 million in 2025. That would be 42.6 percent above last year and leaves US$1,480.8 million to come in the second half.
Its forecast for gold mining growth stays at 5.4 percent, so almost all of the projected gain would have to come from price. The ministry’s forecast is an average of US$4,700 per ounce for the year, while spot gold closed at US$4,164.64 on Friday, 16 October, about 11 percent below it.
What Prediction Markets Say
Traders on Polymarket, a prediction market, put the chance that front-month gold futures settle at or above US$5,000 on any trading day by the end of December at about 10.5 percent at 10:00 p.m. ET on Monday, 19 October. About US$135,700 had been traded on that line, and the whole gold market had drawn about US$2.06 million.
The line for US$6,000 stood at about 4.5 percent on roughly US$1.31 million of volume, and a dip to US$3,500 was priced at about 10 percent. These are bets by traders, not forecasts by the ministry, and the contracts settle on official CME futures prices rather than the spot price used elsewhere in this article.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For investors, Guyana is a case where a gold rally lifted export income by almost half while the ounces shipped fell, so earnings follow the gold price and not the output. A drop in gold would cut those receipts quickly, and the finance ministry itself lists a falling price as a risk.
For US companies that buy or finance Guyanese gold, the Treasury’s 2024 sanctions and the State Department’s 2025 warning make origin, declaration and payment records the central checks. For Guyana, the metal matters because oil is 92.9 percent of exports and gold is the largest of everything else, and newcomers can start with this explainer on Guyana’s role in Latin America.
What Is Not Known
The reports do not say where the gold was sold, so the US share of the US$826.2 million is not public. They also do not explain why exported ounces fell 6.7 percent while declared ounces rose 11.3 percent.
Neither report says how much of the US$826.2 million reached the state as gold royalties. Nor is it known whether gold will hold near the ministry’s US$4,700 forecast, which decides whether the second-half projection of US$1,480.8 million is reached.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much gold did Guyana export in the first half of 2026?
Guyana earned US$826.2 million from gold exports between January and June 2026, up 48.5 percent from US$556.3 million a year earlier. The figures come from the Bank of Guyana and the Ministry of Finance.
Why did export earnings jump if less gold was shipped?
The average export price rose 59.1 percent to US$4,528.20 per ounce, while the volume fell 6.7 percent to 182,451 ounces. Higher prices therefore more than made up for the lower volume.
Who produces Guyana’s gold?
Small and medium miners declared 162,182 troy ounces in the half, and the single large operator, Aurora Gold Mine Inc., declared 70,105. Total declarations came to 232,287 ounces.
Does Guyana sell gold to the United States?
The US Treasury said in June 2024 that Guyanese gold is sold on markets including the United States, Canada, the United Arab Emirates and the European Union. Guyana’s official reports do not break the 2026 exports down by country.
How much gold will Guyana export in 2026?
The finance ministry projects US$2,307.0 million for the full year, up from US$1,617.9 million in 2025. Its price forecast is US$4,700 per ounce, compared with a close of US$4,164.64 on Friday, 16 October.
Sources: Guyana Ministry of Finance, Mid-Year Report 2026, dated 28 August 2026, Bank of Guyana, Half Year Report 2026, letter of transmittal dated 27 August 2026, Guyana Ministry of Finance, Mid-Year Report 2025, US Department of the Treasury, Treasury Targets Corruption Network in Guyana, 11 June 2024, US State Department, International Narcotics Control Strategy Report Volume 2, March 2025, Guyana Gold Board, About, Zijin Mining Group, contact and headquarters page, Kaieteur News, 19 October 2026, Guyana Chronicle, 9 October 2026. All amounts are US dollars as published by the Bank of Guyana and the Ministry of Finance, so no currency conversion was needed. Gold prices after June: spot gold, daily close in US dollars per troy ounce, house market data for Friday, 16 October 2026. Prediction market data: Polymarket public data for its gold futures market ending December 2026, read at 10:00 p.m. ET on 19 October 2026. Reports and pages retrieved 20 October 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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