Estimated iPhone Duo delivery dates started slipping dramatically, literally within a minute of pre-orders opening on Friday. Even some of those who got in within the first few minutes got estimated shipping dates into January of next year.
That undeniably poses problems for Apple, but some have gone as far as calling it “a major mistake” to launch with such limited stock. Personally, I’d say it’s annoying for customers but more of a mixed blessing for Apple …
Apple always builds up inventory before launching new products, but with new product categories like the first foldable iPhone it can be hard for the company to predict demand.
In many ways, the company is in a no-win position with this balancing act of supply and demand. If demand greatly exceeds supply, Apple risks irritating some of its most loyal customers – those who are willing to go all in on a first-generation product. But if supply exceeds demand, and a new product remains available for immediate delivery, commenters will inevitably point to that as evidence for it being a flop.
The balance of supply and demand
In truth, none of us knows the true position here. The imbalance may be due to the iPhone Duo being wildly more popular than Apple anticipated (as the company implies), or it may be that demand is modest but manufacturing complexities mean that supply is even more limited. My own view is that it’s likely a mixture of the two: relatively high demand and rather constrained supply.
Relatively high demand because, while foldables in general are still a rather niche product, it’s very clear that Apple put in a lot of thought and work into making this one the best on the market. The company has seemingly addressed the two main issues that beset Android foldables to date: a visible crease and poor durability. The company then created software features to take full advantage of the form factor of the device, and topped it off with an absolutely superb launch video. I think some of those who had previously ruled it out on the basis of price changed their minds once they saw it; It’s been a long time since we’ve seen such excitement levels around a new Apple product.
Rather constrained supply because it’s clear that the complexity of the device, and most especially the hinge, means that it’s very difficult to manufacture, and it’s likely that yield rates are relatively low.
A mixed blessing
One of the biggest problems of the world we live in today is polarization of views. Large swathes of the population seem to have lost sight of the fact that two different things can be true at the same time.
Yes, pre-ordering a product in October within minutes and then having to wait until January to receive it is both annoying and frustrating. If I were in that position, I would absolutely be pissed at Apple.
But also yes: this immediate slipping of delivery dates adds to the narrative of a wildly popular new product, serving to further boost the hype around it.
If Apple could have perfectly predicted demand, then it would likely have wanted a position where delivery times slipped sufficiently for the launch to be viewed as a success, but not so much that customers get annoyed. This situation isn’t ideal, for sure, but in my view it’s more of a mixed blessing than a strategic error.
Finally, if you are the position of having been given a lengthy wait for your order, the reality may not be quite as bad as it appears. Apple tends to present customers with the worst case dates initially, often bringing them forward subsequently. Additionally, retail staff tell me that there will often be unexpected walk-in stock available at some stores, again due to imperfect forecasting of online versus offline sales, as well as varying demand at different stores. That’s always worth trying from the day after the new devices go on sale.
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