Rather, the exchange rate is a function of global interest rates, investor risk appetite, and oil prices, given that India is a major oil importer navigating a landscape where benchmark rates in advanced economies have reached multi-decade highs, he explained.
The global financial institution recently raised its India growth forecast following a much stronger-than-expected April-June quarter, where real GDP growth reached 7.8% according to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
The IMF now projects growth at 7% this year and next, and 6.9% over the medium term. On a calendar-year basis, figures stand at 7.4% for 2026 and 7.0% for 2027, with the 2026 forecast marked up by 0.5 percentage points from April.
Addressing questions regarding revisions to India's GDP numbers, Srinivasan said that the authorities issued a clarifying note and that the methodological changes are "entirely consistent" with IMF advice and statistics department guidelines.
He affirmed that what MoSPI has accomplished aligns with good practice, noting that the new GDP series with 2022-23 as the base year follows guidelines set out in the IMF's 2017 Quarterly National Accounts Manual. While acknowledging that there is always room for improvement, he stressed that the positive strides made by MoSPI in upgrading GDP statistics deserve full recognition.
The World Economic Outlook released on October 13 positioned India among the fastest-growing major economies, powered by resilient domestic demand and robust services activity. The report highlighted India as an exceptional case in the medium-term outlook, crediting favorable demographics, a vast domestic market, and continued structural reforms.
Notably, India stands apart as a major economy that does not require additional fiscal consolidation beyond current plans to maintain its 2025 debt ratio.
Across the broader Asian landscape, regional growth is projected to moderate from 5% in 2025 to 4.8% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027, though Asia continues to outpace the global average.
Srinivasan noted that downside risks remain, including prolonged Middle Eastern tensions and potential El Nino pressures, while outlining four core reform priorities: tackling youth unemployment and AI-era skill gaps, strengthening social protection, improving energy security, and deepening regional integration.