The No. 16 USC Trojans silenced all the doubters in Week 6 when they came into Beaver Stadium, tuned out the White Out crowd and beat Penn State 31-23. After a much needed rest in Week 7, the Trojans will be back on the road in Week 8 to face the Wisconsin Badgers (Oct. 24).
Wisconsin is coming off a 17-7 loss USC’s crosstown rival, No. 9 UCLA Bruins, falling to a 4-2 record (2-1 in conference). Despite this, Madison is projected to be a tough environment and the Badgers have already pulled off a feat of the Trojans – beating the Nittany Lions at home – making sportsbooks believe this will be a competitive matchup.
Projected Close Victory for The Trojans
ESPN Analytics’ matchup predictor may heavily favor USC, giving them a 60.5 percent chance to win, but sportsbooks are giving them a smaller margin for victory. BetMGM, Bet365 and DraftKings currently have Southern Cal moneyline set at -130 and +110 for Wisconsin. Both FanDuel (+112 Wisconsin) and Caesars (+109 Wisconsin) are giving USC -134 odds to win, but have different odds listed for the Badgers.
On prediction markets, there is only a one percent difference between traders – 55 percent Kalshi traders believe the Trojans will win while 56 percent of traders on Kalshi are also riding with the Trojans.
Over/Under and Points Spread
DraftKings (-110), BetMGM (-105), Caesars (-113) and Bet365 (-110) all have the total points listed at 49.5, but are giving Southern Cal different odds to hit the over. FanDuel has their total points set at 48.5 and are giving Southern Cal -114 odds to hit the over. On prediction markets, 83 percent of Polymarket traders believe over 49.5 points will be scored while 46 percent of Kalshi traders believe there will be over 50.5 points.
All five of the aforementioned sportsbooks have USC as -2.5 point favorites, but they all have different odds for the Trojans to cover:
- On DraftKings, -110 odds for both the Trojans and Badgers
- On FanDuel, -112 for USC, -108 for Wisconsin
- On BetMGM, -112 for USC, -108 for Wisconsin
- On Caesars, -113 for USC, -109 for Wisconsin
- On Bet365, -111 for USC, -109 for Wisconsin
52 percent of traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are in on USC winning by 2.5 points as well.
After their 31-23 win against Penn State, USC improved to a 2-5 record against the spread (28.6 percent chance to cover, -5.2 ATS). On the road, they are 1-1 against the spread (50 percent chance to cover, -3.8 ATS). The reason for the poor record is due to the level of competition earlier in the season – USC was expected to win by huge margins but their defense let up too many points.
These past two weeks, defensive coordinator Gary Patterson has pumped new life into his side of the ball as the unit has closed out back-to-back games – Kameryn Crawford’s sack against Washington and a fumble recovery by Chasen Johnson against Penn State. On this two-game winning streak, the defense has only allowed a total of 54 points. Compared to their four-game win streak at the start of the season, the Trojans’ defense allowed a total of 91.
USC coach Lincoln Riley's offense preformed well on the road too at Beaver Stadium. Coming off a bye week with injured players potentially returning, bettors should feel good about this one.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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