Layoffs drove increases in unemployment claims in Texas, Ohio and Michigan earlier this month just as the three states are embroiled in crucial U.S. Senate races building up to the November 3 midterm elections.
Ohio recorded the largest spike in initial unemployment claims in the country for the week ending October 10, with an increase of 3,918, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Texas recorded an increase of 1,721 and Michigan saw an additional 1,195 claims.
State officials attributed the increases to layoffs. Manufacturing employment losses hit Ohio and Michigan, while Texas pointed to workforce cuts across transportation and warehousing, accommodation, information and food services.
Why It Matters
All three states are preparing for a major U.S. Senate election, and the economy and jobs are central to the campaigns.
“It is clear that certain government policies are impacting many regions across the country. Traditionally, most issues tend to be local, with federal policies having relatively little direct impact,” Kevin Thompson, CEO of 9i Capital Group and host of the 9innings podcast, told Newsweek.
“However, as we can see, whether it's tariffs, higher input prices, or just overall uncertainty, these factors are starting to impact municipalities across the country.”
Nationwide, unemployment claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 194,000 for the week ending October 17, down 6,000 from the previous week's revised level and around a three-month low.
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Why Unemployment Claims Are Rising
The increase in claims in several states reflects America’s larger uneven labor market, experts say. Layoffs are hitting particular industries even as unemployment filings remain relatively low nationally.
“The number of economic factors making the job market more difficult are vast,” Alex Beene, financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek. “Ongoing military conflicts, rising interest rates, and other financial uncertainties are leading many employers to either put the pause button on hiring or cut their existing workforce.”
Alongside Ohio, Texas and Michigan, Tennessee, Pennsylvania and California each reported increases of more than 1,000 initial claims for the week ending October 10.
Tennessee's claims rose by 3,477, with the state citing layoffs in educational services and manufacturing. Pennsylvania recorded an increase of 1,954 and attributed it to cuts across several industries, including professional and technical services and healthcare. California's claims rose by 1,758.
This does not match the larger state of unemployment in America. For the week ending October 17, initial nationwide unemployment claims dropped to 194,000, and the four-week moving average declined to 197,750.
At the same time, continued unemployment claims rose by 25,000 to 1.728 million for the week ending October 10.
That creates a mixed picture heading into the midterms. While relatively few workers are filing new unemployment claims nationally, layoffs are producing significant stress in certain states and industries.
“When the unemployment rate starts to rise, the question is usually not ‘if’ it will influence the vote, but rather ‘how much’ it will,” Beene said. “When voters are more concerned over their future employment opportunities, they may look harder at candidates and what they're offering, and in close elections in certain states, that could be the deciding factor on who ultimately wins.”
Texas recorded an increase of 1,721 initial unemployment claims for the week ending October 10.
Unlike Ohio and Michigan, where manufacturing was identified as the reason for increases, Texas attributed the jump to several areas of its economy: transportation and warehousing, accommodation and food services, and information.
As Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico square off in the state’s Senate race, the economy, taxes and cost of living will likely play a substantial role for voters.
A recent survey from the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs showed a close race, but Thompson said the larger job strife is unlikely to make a major impact on voters deeply invested in either of the major political parties.
“I believe this will have a definite impact on the midterms, particularly among independent and swing voters,” Thompson said. “However, for those firmly entrenched on the political right or left, these economic conditions will likely have very little impact on how they vote.”
Ohio Layoffs and Unemployment
Ohio experienced the largest increase in initial unemployment claims of any state, according to the Labor Department report.
Claims rose by 3,918 during the week ending October 10, with Ohio attributing the increase specifically to manufacturing layoffs.
Cincinnati-based Kroger also announced on October 12 that it plans to eliminate approximately 3,000 corporate positions over the next three years, representing about 37 percent of its 8,200 corporate employees. The Kroger cuts are not the cause of Ohio's latest unemployment-claims increase but could reflect larger economic strife in the state.
The former International Motors factory in Springfield also laid off roughly 1,400 workers earlier in October as the plant changed ownership.
The labor market is particularly politically significant in Ohio this year as Republican Senator Jon Husted faces former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown.
But still, Michael Ryan, finance expert and founder of MichaelRyanMoney, cautioned against leaping to the assumption that this will affect voters’ choices all too much.
“Keep it in perspective. That’s one week of raw filings,” Ryan said. “National claims just fell to 194,000, the lowest since July. Ohio’s number dropped by more than half the following week. And Texas and Michigan were actually running below the same week last year. Michigan is the one I’d watch. Its claims rose again the next week.”
Michigan Layoffs and Unemployment
Michigan also experienced a manufacturing-driven increase in unemployment filings. The state reported 1,195 additional initial claims for the week ending October 10, attributing the increase to layoffs in manufacturing.
The issue has become a key talking point in Michigan's Senate battle between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. At an appearance at the Detroit Economic Club this week, the candidates discussed how Michigan could address its shrinking workforce and skills gap.
“If you look at wages for new college graduates versus wages for the skilled trades, skilled trades is winning that fight all day long,” Rogers said.
El-Sayed also said there’s a skills gap and that the state needs to do more to attract talent.
“We gotta build not just good jobs and address the skills gap, but we also have to address the pull factors that keep people staying here. And ideally, get people coming here. I wanna be a destination for future talent. I don’t just want to be a place that barely holds on to the kids that we grow here,” El-Sayed said.
Where Layoffs Are Hitting Hardest
The unemployment claims data shows that recent job pressures are not confined to the three key Senate race states.
The states reporting increases exceeding 1,000 claims for the week ending October 10 included:
- Ohio: 3,918, attributed to manufacturing layoffs.
- Tennessee: 3,477, with educational services and manufacturing among the reasons cited.
- Pennsylvania: 1,954, with layoffs reported across several industries.
- Texas: 1,721, attributed to transportation and warehousing, accommodation and food services, and information layoffs.
- California: 1,758.
- Michigan: 1,195, attributed to manufacturing layoffs.
October has brought layoff announcements from companies spanning industries, from technology to retail.
Netflix announced approximately 1,000 job cuts, while HubSpot said it would reduce its workforce by roughly 7 percent, or around 660 workers. Tech companies Flock Safety, Airtable and Amazon have also announced recent cuts.
“The bigger story isn’t people losing jobs,” Ryan said. “It’s how long they stay out of work. Employers aren’t firing much. But they aren’t hiring much either. So once you’re laid off, the next job takes longer to find. Continuing claims just hit a 6 week high.”
What It Means for 2026 Midterm Elections
The new labor market data could take on greater political significance because three of the states experiencing the highest numbers of unemployment claims are home to major Senate races. Jobs, affordability and the broader economy have all become core issues for candidates in all three.
“For the midterms, a statewide Senate race won’t swing on 1 week of claims data,” Ryan said. “But a plant closing doesn’t hit a state. It hits a town. Voters there don’t see a national number... they see the empty parking lot and the neighbor who’s still looking after three months.”
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Anna Skinner, Edward T. Cummins