Climate: Latin America
Key Facts
—What. The UN weather agency says Pacific waters could reach 3.8°C above average from November 2026 to January 2027.
—Why it matters. That would go beyond the scales the agency has used to track El Niño for four decades.
—Money. The UN emergency fund has released more than US$50 million to help 11 countries prepare.
—Where. Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan are among the 11 countries.
—People. The UN humanitarian chief says up to 50 million people could face a higher risk of hunger.
—Prediction markets. Polymarket prices a “Super El Niño” this winter at 97.2% (US$10,064 traded), as of 23 October 2026, 9:29 am ET.
The UN weather agency says this El Niño may push Pacific waters to 3.8°C above average, and aid money is moving before it peaks.
What the UN Said on 21 October
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the UN’s weather agency, warned on Wednesday 21 October that this El Niño could be stronger than any it has measured. It expects sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific to reach as much as 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the event could be “literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades”, repeating words the agency first used on 3 September. She added that people cannot stop El Niño, but they can prevent many of its worst human consequences.
UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher spoke alongside her at a joint press conference in Geneva. He said the UN’s Central Emergency Response Fund has released more than US$50 million so that 11 of the most exposed countries can prepare now.
Why a Warm Pacific Matters to Americans
El Niño is a periodic warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that shifts rain and heat patterns around the world. Strong events bring drought to some regions and floods to others, often within the same continent.
For readers in the United States, the effects are practical. The WMO’s earlier outlooks expect wetter-than-normal conditions in western North America, south of 45°N, while Central America and the Caribbean are more likely to be drier than normal.
Drought also matters for shipping. Panama declared a national state of emergency earlier this season, and the Panama Canal Authority introduced water-saving operations, according to the WMO’s 3 September statement.
How Certain Is the Forecast?
The WMO has been unusually firm for weeks. On 3 September it put the likelihood that El Niño persists through February 2027 at “nearly 100%”, the first time it had expressed such certainty.
On 8 October the agency said sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific were forecast to reach record levels during October to December 2026. The 3.8°C figure announced on 21 October extends that outlook into the November to January period.
A forecast is not a certainty about local weather. The WMO’s numbers describe the ocean, and how much rain or drought a given town receives depends on many other factors.
What It Could Mean Across Latin America
The WMO’s regional outlook points in two directions. Central America and the Caribbean are more likely to be drier than normal.
Southern Brazil, Uruguay, northern Argentina and central Chile are expected to be wetter than normal. Peru declared a state of emergency on 2 July in 796 districts, about 40% of its districts, ahead of the El Niño rains.
The Rio Times has followed the Peruvian response, including a US$5.2 billion stimulus package. Our coverage of the Panama Canal and its water limits shows how a dry season can quickly reach world trade.
Panama’s farmers are also getting help under an US$8.2 million climate plan. More background sits in our Latin America section.
Money Before the Peak
The UN calls this “anticipatory action”: paying for preparation before a disaster rather than for relief after it. Fletcher said the next two weeks are a critical window to act before the damage is done.
In its 3 September statement the WMO said UN partners were rolling out plans in Latin America and the Caribbean that include cash assistance, drought-resistant and flood-resistant seeds, livestock protection and flood defences. Of the 11 countries, the UN named five at the press conference: El Salvador in Central America and Chad, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan in Africa.
Fletcher warned that up to 50 million people across Latin America, Africa, Asia and the Pacific could face a higher risk of hunger. Our earlier report on how Southern Africa is bracing for El Niño shows the same pressures on the other side of the Atlantic.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, traders price a “Super El Niño” this winter (2026–27) at 97.2%, with US$10,064 traded as of 23 October 2026, 9:29 am ET. A separate Polymarket market on the peak strength of the 2026–27 event, with about US$120,000 traded, puts 47.0% on a reading of 2.5 or above and 36.5% on 2.25 to below 2.5.
Those readings use a different index from the WMO’s 3.8°C ocean forecast, so the figures are not directly comparable. These prices are bets, not polls or official forecasts.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
If you ship goods through Panama, buy Central American coffee or have family in affected countries, watch the next WMO and national weather updates. Drier conditions in Central America can strain local water supplies and farm output.
The UN’s message is that early action can limit the human cost. Its two-week window means more announcements may follow soon.
What Is Not Known
The WMO has not said how the 3.8°C anomaly will translate into harvests, prices or shipping limits in any one country. The UN named only five of the 11 countries at the press conference.
The agency has said the event is likely to peak towards the end of 2026, but it has not given a date for the next update. Readers should treat country-level forecasts as likely rather than certain.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is El Niño in plain English?
El Niño is a warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that changes rainfall and temperatures worldwide. It can bring drought to some regions and floods to others.
What did the WMO announce on 21 October 2026?
It said tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures could reach 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027. It added that the event could be off the monitoring charts used for four decades.
How much money has the UN released?
UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher said the Central Emergency Response Fund has released more than US$50 million to prepare 11 countries, including El Salvador, Chad, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan.
Which parts of Latin America face the most risk?
The WMO says Central America and the Caribbean are more likely to be drier than normal. It expects wetter conditions in southern Brazil, Uruguay, northern Argentina and central Chile.
Why does this matter to the United States?
El Niño changes rainfall across the Americas, and drought can limit Panama Canal shipping. The UN also expects humanitarian pressure in Central America.