FRANCE IN TURMOIL · EXPLAINER
School protests in France have merged with anger over living costs, bringing riots, night curfews and a jolt to the 2027 presidential race.
France is in the grip of protests and riots after high-school protests over crowded classrooms merged with a cost-of-living revolt that turned violent on Saturday, 17 October. Curfews now apply in parts of Paris, Lyon and other cities, and new marches are called for Thursday, 22 October, and Saturday, 24 October.
For Americans the turmoil matters in three ways: travel to France, the cost of financing the euro zone’s second-largest economy, and a 2027 presidential race that Marine Le Pen now leads. The NFL’s first regular-season game in France, the Pittsburgh Steelers against the New Orleans Saints at the Stade de France on Sunday, 25 October, falls the day after the next national protest day.
France 2027 Poll Tracker
First-round average: Le Pen 34.7%, Mélenchon 16.5%, Philippe 14%
35 first-round and 53 runoff polls of 2026, every scenario, free to download.
Key Facts
- —What happened Student protests joined a Yellow Vest cost-of-living march on 17 October; 550,000 marched by official count.
- —The toll 2,397 arrests, 997 police injured and Limoges city hall burned on 17 October alone.
- —Curfews Paris 11 p.m.–6 a.m. local time at République and Les Halles; no state of emergency.
- —What comes next Protests on 22 and 24 October, budget vote 3 November, nationwide and rail strike 5 November.
- —Prediction markets Marine Le Pen 47% on Polymarket, 54% on Kalshi to win in 2027 (21 October, 8:34 a.m. ET)
The Short Answer
France is protesting about money and schools, and the anger has outgrown both. Teenagers began blockading their lycées, France’s upper secondary schools, in September over overloaded timetables, missing teachers and run-down buildings, while fishermen blockaded ports and a fuel depot over the price of diesel.
On 17 October those streams met in a national “vie chère” (cost-of-living) day promoted by a revived Yellow Vest coordination, with students, trade unionists and climate campaigners in the crowds. Most marches were peaceful, but riots and looting in Paris, Lyon, Bordeaux, Lille and other cities pushed the government into curfews.
The crisis lands on a government without a majority, six months before a presidential election in which President Emmanuel Macron cannot stand. That is why the unrest, the 2027 budget and the race to succeed him are now one story, and why markets and travellers are watching the same dates.
In Plain English
- Lycée A French upper secondary school for pupils aged about 15 to 18.
- Yellow Vests (gilets jaunes) A protest movement born in 2018 over fuel taxes and living costs.
- CGT, CFDT, FO, UNSA, FSU The union federations calling the 5 November strike; the FSU mainly represents teachers.
- RN (National Rally) Marine Le Pen’s nationalist party, the largest group in the National Assembly.
- LFI (France Unbowed) Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s radical-left party.
- Prime minister Sébastien Lecornu runs the government day to day; the president sets the course.
- Prefect The central government’s representative in each département, who can order curfews.
- State of emergency A special regime giving the government extra powers, such as banning gatherings.
Timeline From School Blockades to Curfews
- 15 to 17 September Fishermen block the port of Nice and the Frontignan fuel depot near Sète over diesel prices, while pupils start blockading lycées in Villeneuve-d’Ascq, Caen and, after a teachers’ strike, Créteil near Paris.
- 29 September and 6 October The high-school union USL calls its first national protest days; university student unions join with marches and blockades.
- 14 October Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu tells the Senate that 937 police and gendarmes, 248 pupils and 149 school staff have been injured since the movement began.
- Saturday, 17 October The cost-of-living day draws 550,000 people by official count; looting in Paris and Lyon, the prefect’s residence in Bordeaux ransacked, protesters inside the city halls of Lille and Marseille, and Limoges city hall gutted by fire.
- 18 October The Interior Ministry counts 2,397 arrests nationwide and the Paris police prefecture 855 in the capital; Macron addresses the nation in the evening and blames “ultra-left” groups for the violence.
- 19 October Macron refuses the resignation offered by Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez; Lecornu orders partial curfews, rules out a curfew for all of Paris and promises a support fund for damaged shops.
- 20 October Police arrest a suspect over the Limoges fire; curfews are renewed and Nuñez says soldiers will take over guard duties on 24 October so police can control crowds.
- 21 and 22 October Lecornu receives the five nationally representative union confederations on Wednesday and the political parties on Thursday, when students march again.
- Coming up “Act II” of the Yellow Vest protest on 24 October, the Steelers-Saints game on 25 October, a further Yellow Vest call on 31 October, the budget vote on 3 November and the strike day on 5 November.
Latest developments
- Will France's Government Collapse Over the 2027 Budget?
France’s government has survived the riots so far, but its 2027 budget faces a hostile parliament and a decisive vote on 3 November. What could bring it down.
- Who Will Win France's 2027 Election? Polls and Odds
Six months before France chooses Emmanuel Macron's successor, Marine Le Pen leads both the polls and the betting markets. The latest polls and odds.
- Is It Safe to Travel to France Right Now? Curfews, Strikes
You can still travel to France, but avoid protest days and the small night-curfew zones in Paris, Lyon and other city centres. Every date and advisory.
- How France Lost the Ability to Pass a Budget
France has not lost a war, a currency or a bank. It has lost something quieter: a parliamentary majority willing to own a budget — and the markets are beginning to price the absence.
Who Is Protesting and Why
Students. The movement started with lycée pupils, led by the high-school union USL (Union syndicale lycéenne), and the university unions FAGE, UNEF and Union étudiante have joined it. They want more teachers and staff, smaller classes, repaired buildings and an end to the stress of Parcoursup, the national website that allocates university places.
The Yellow Vests. The gilets jaunes, named after the high-visibility vests every French driver must carry, first rose in 2018 against fuel taxes. A new coordination of the movement called the 17 October day, says on its website that “Macron must go” and did not condemn the looting.
The unions. The main unions, from the left-wing CGT to the moderate CFDT, did not call the riots but are channelling the anger into a strike on 5 November. They want higher wages and pensions, better public services and jobs, and they oppose the direction of the 2027 budget.
The cost of living. Consumer prices rose 3.1% in the year to September, the highest rate since January 2024, as energy costs jumped 21.3%, according to the statistics office INSEE. Diesel averaged €2.37 a litre (about US$2.66, or roughly US$10 a gallon) on 21 October in the government’s live fuel-price data, close to the €2.38 peak it has hit since the war in Iran began in February.

Who the government blames. Macron and Lecornu say organised “ultra-left” groups drove the violence and want to sow disorder until the presidential election. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the radical-left La France Insoumise, marched in Paris and blamed the government’s policing strategy, while Lecornu told his party to “choose its side”.
How Violent Has It Been?
The 17 October day was the worst so far: 2,397 people were arrested and 997 police officers and gendarmes, a national police force with military status, were injured, seven of them seriously. Paris alone counted 855 arrests, which the police prefecture called a record.
In Limoges, in central France, the 19th-century city hall burned and the prefect said it was largely lost. A 34-year-old man described by a source as an “ultra-left” activist on a state security watchlist was arrested on 20 October, and the justice ministry said he did not act alone.
One marcher died in Paris on 17 October after a suspected heart attack, and the police prefecture says the death was unrelated to violence or police action. A protester in Saint-Étienne lost a hand to a police grenade, according to a source close to the case quoted by France 24.
“The return to order is the precondition for everything else.”Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to the National Assembly, 20 October
The Government and Parliament
Macron, a centrist elected in 2017 and re-elected in 2022, cannot run again because the constitution limits presidents to two consecutive terms. His prime minister since September 2025, Sébastien Lecornu, governs without a majority in the 577-seat National Assembly, where Le Pen’s National Rally holds the largest group with about 120 seats.
The riots have not yet produced a no-confidence vote, but Socialist leader Olivier Faure warned in August that “there will be a censure” if the 2027 budget resembles his rivals’ programmes, and the Assembly votes on its revenue half on 3 November. Macron ruled out dissolving parliament before the election on 24 September, saying it “would not be good for the country”.
On security, Lecornu prefers local curfews to a state of emergency, the regime France used during the 2005 suburban riots, which the conservative leader Bruno Retailleau demanded on 18 October. Lecornu said “if it is necessary, we could do it”, and promised a “massive” police presence for Saturday after admitting the 17 October deployment was too static.
Whether Lecornu survives the budget is the next test, and we track the numbers in will France’s government collapse. Our analysis of why France is in crisis explains how the country lost a stable majority.
What It Means for Travellers
Dates to Watch
- Thursday, 22 October Student marches
- Saturday, 24 October Yellow Vest “Act II”, heavy police presence
- Sunday, 25 October Steelers v Saints at the Stade de France
- Saturday, 31 October Further Yellow Vest call
- Thursday, 5 November Nationwide strike and rail strike call
France remains open, and most visitors will meet the unrest only as closed streets, extra police and late-night curfews in a few city-centre zones. In Paris the curfew covers the central island of Place de la République and part of the Les Halles shopping district from 11 p.m. to 6 a.m. (5 p.m. to midnight US Eastern Time until the clocks change on 25 October), and undeclared gatherings are banned from 8 p.m. near the Élysée Palace, the president’s residence, the Champs-Élysées and train stations.
The US Embassy’s alert of 19 October tells Americans to avoid demonstrations, check the Paris transit operator RATP for metro closures and confirm flights with their airline. We could not read the State Department’s France advisory page on 21 October because it sat behind a security check, so check its current level at travel.state.gov before you fly.
Rail travellers should watch Thursday, 5 November, when the four rail unions at the state railway SNCF have called a strike. Our guide to whether it is safe to travel to France lists every curfew, strike date and official advisory and is updated as they change.
What It Means for Markets
Market Snapshot
- 10-year government bond about 4.92% at the close on 20 October
- Premium over Germany 153 basis points, up from 137 on 16 October
- CAC 40 stock index down 1.5% from 16 to 20 October
- Euro about US$1.12 on 21 October
Investors charged France more to borrow as the riots added to budget worries. The yield on the 10-year OAT, France’s benchmark government bond, closed at about 4.92% on 20 October after nearly touching 5% during the day, and its premium over German debt widened to 153 basis points (1.53 percentage points) from 137 on 16 October, according to figures from the Dutch bank ING reported by the business channel BFM Bourse.
The CAC 40, the Paris index of 40 large companies, fell 1.1% on 19 October and 0.4% on 20 October before steadying on 21 October. The euro traded near US$1.12, and Moody’s still rates France Aa3 with a negative outlook, one notch above its rating at Fitch and S&P Global.
The 2027 Election
France elects its next president in two rounds, on Sunday, 18 April, and Sunday, 2 May 2027, dates the government set on 1 July 2026. If nobody wins more than half the votes cast in the first round, the top two meet in the runoff.
Marine Le Pen, 58, declared on 7 July that she will run, and party president Jordan Bardella, 31, would replace her if she were barred. That day an appeal court upheld her conviction for misusing European Parliament funds but cut her ban from office to 45 months, 30 of them suspended, and dropped its immediate effect; her lawyers say she can run, some jurists disagree, and the Constitutional Council, which validates candidacies, will rule on hers.
The Main Candidates
- Marine Le Pen National Rally, nationalist; leads the polls
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon France Unbowed (LFI), radical left
- Raphaël Glucksmann Place Publique, centre-left, backed by the Socialist Party
- Édouard Philippe Horizons, centre-right, prime minister from 2017 to 2020
- Gabriel Attal Renaissance, Macron’s party
- Bruno Retailleau The Republicans (LR), conservative
- David Lisnard Nouvelle Énergie, conservative mayor of Cannes
The polling firm Ifop’s survey for LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio, taken from 17 to 19 October among 1,928 registered voters, gave Le Pen 36% in its main scenario and 34% to 38% across all line-ups, ahead of Mélenchon at 16.5% and Glucksmann at 13.5%. The pollster Elabe, which published on 17 October, had her at 31% to 33.5%, with Philippe, Glucksmann and Mélenchon each between 13.5% and 16.5%.
In Ifop’s runoff tests, Le Pen beat Philippe by 56% to 44% and Glucksmann by 57% to 43%. Glucksmann, a member of the European Parliament, won a primary held by the Socialists and his Place Publique party on 11 October with 66%, and every poll and price is in our France 2027 election polls and odds page.
What Prediction Markets Say
Traders on Polymarket, an online prediction-market exchange, have put more than US$154 million into the question of who wins France’s next presidential election, and they make Le Pen the favourite at about 46%. On Kalshi, which is regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), her price rose from 44% at the close of 13 October to 53% to 54% on 21 October, as the riots unfolded.
The markets rate Lisnard well above his polls, at about 11% to 12% against 5.5% to 7% in Ifop’s latest poll, so traders are betting on a breakthrough the polls do not yet show. A brief jump in Glucksmann’s Kalshi price to 19% on 13 October, two days after his primary win, reversed within about an hour.
Prediction markets · France 2027 and the unrest
Implied chances from traders’ prices on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Who wins France's presidential election in 2027
Marine Le Pen46.5%
Édouard Philippe18.5%
David Lisnard11.7%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon10.5%
Raphaël Glucksmann5%
Polymarket: US$154.5 million traded.
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC), next president: Marine Le Pen 54% · Édouard Philippe 15% · David Lisnard 11% (920,929 contracts traded).
Who reaches the runoff on 2 May 2027
Marine Le Pen90.5%
Édouard Philippe40.5%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon39.5%
David Lisnard14.3%
Polymarket: US$403,000 traded. Two candidates go through, so these chances add up to about 200%.
France declares a state of emergency by...
31 October6.5%
31 December (-3.5 points in 24 h)13%
Polymarket: US$207,000 traded. A state of emergency gives the government extra powers such as banning gatherings; it has not been declared.
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC), state of emergency: before 1 November 2026 11% · before 1 January 2027 24% (27,695 contracts traded).
France passes a national budget by 31 December 2026
Yes (-6.5 points in 24 h)49.5%
Polymarket: US$19,000 traded. The 2027 budget needs a majority the government does not have.
As of 21 October, 8:34 a.m. ET (13:34 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Nobody knows yet whether Saturday’s “Act II” will stay peaceful, whether the government will ban undeclared marches or how long the Paris curfew will last. The police prefecture says it will run “as long as necessary”, and the Bordeaux curfew for minors is set to end on 26 October.
It is also unclear whether the Socialists will vote down Lecornu’s budget, whether the Court of Cassation, France’s top court for criminal and civil cases, will rule on Le Pen’s appeal before the April vote, and how the investigations into the Limoges fire will end. We will update this explainer as each of these questions is answered.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are people protesting in France?
High-school students began protesting in September over crowded classes, missing teachers and run-down schools. On 17 October they joined a Yellow Vest protest against living costs, with prices up 3.1% in a year and diesel at about €2.37 a litre (about US$2.66).
Is it safe to travel to France right now?
Nights have been calmer since curfews began on 19 October, the government says, and the US Embassy advises avoiding demonstrations and checking metro closures. Britain and Canada warn of curfews but do not advise against travel.
Is there a curfew in Paris?
Yes, on the central island of Place de la République and part of Les Halles, from 11 p.m. to 6 a.m. local time. It covers adults too, except residents, workers and emergency services, and lasts as long as police consider necessary.
Did the French government collapse?
No, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government is still in office. The next risk is the 2027 budget, which the Socialists have threatened to block, with a first vote due on 3 November.
Who will win the 2027 French election?
Nobody can know six months out, but Marine Le Pen leads the polls with 34% to 38% in Ifop’s latest survey, and betting markets make her the favourite. The vote is on 18 April and 2 May 2027.
When is the next strike in France?
The main unions and the four SNCF rail unions have called strikes for Thursday, 5 November. Before that, Yellow Vest and student groups have called protests for 24 October, and the Yellow Vests also for 31 October.
Sources: French Interior Ministry and Paris police prefecture figures as reported by France 24, ICI and franceinfo (17 to 20 October); Élysée communiqué on Laurent Nuñez (19 October, via franceinfo); Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s statements to the Senate (14 October), the press (19 October) and the National Assembly (20 October, via France 24); INSEE consumer prices, September 2026; the government’s live fuel-price data (data.economie.gouv.fr, 21 October); AFP via Sud Radio on the fishermen’s blockades (September); US Embassy Paris security alert (19 October); UK Foreign Office and Government of Canada travel advice (19 October); National Assembly budget calendar; LCP on Olivier Faure (28 August) and on Macron and dissolution (24 September); Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio (20 October); AFP via Sud Radio on diesel prices (17 September); Elabe (17 October); Public Sénat on the Le Pen appeal ruling (8 July); Toute l’Europe on the election calendar; BFM Bourse market report (20 October); EODHD market data; Polymarket and Kalshi public market data (21 October); NFL and ESPN on the Steelers-Saints game (18 October). As of 21 October 2026.
More: France in Turmoil: the dossier, with every story, the live odds and the latest developments.
