More than 130,000 degree-qualified jobs could be wiped out by AI within a decade, a sobering government report by the agency tasked with assessing the nation’s future skills has warned.
Jobs and Skills Australia has forecast “around 139,000” fewer jobs requiring a university degree in 10 years, with four of the top 10 occupations for graduates of commerce/management and society and culture at “medium risk” of automation.
Futurist Michael McQueen said studying the humanities or forgoing university for a trade will give people entering the workforce an advantage over those in “highly cognitive but repetitive roles”.
Essential to future-proofing is letting go of the idea of “university as the ultimate and the ideal” and giving vocational jobs equal consideration, McQueen said. “It’s no longer a sensible paradigm.”
Within universities, the critical thinking and creativity engendered by arts degrees make them a good option, he said.
“It’s a way of thinking more than the actual skills that you’re learning,” he said, cautioning against going to university “because it’s the right thing to do”.
The JSA analysis earlier this month shows jobs that are popular with university graduates are among those at risk. Accounting and financial services (management and commerce), admin and HR (management and commerce), admin and HR (society and culture) and legal and insurance (society and culture) are among the top five occupations for graduates of both disciplines.
They have also been deemed at medium risk of “complete displacement” from AI automation.
Management and commerce graduates’ other top occupational choices – advertising/media, sales and executive roles – have been rated at a low risk of AI replacement. For society and culture graduates, top occupations with a low risk of AI replacement include health, education and advertising/media.
But a number of those occupations are rated as high risk of AI taking over some elements of the industry.
Jobs and Skills’ acting commissioner Trevor Gauld said: “The future is not fixed.”
“It is true that entry-level roles may have some exposure challenges. But what we know is that human judgment, expertise and adaptability remains crucial. You gain many of those skills through those entry-level pathways. So this is about choice. If we don’t choose to ensure that we maintain those entry-level roles, how will the next generation of workers develop those judgment skills?”
While 139,000 degree-qualified workers may find themselves out of work, “a responsive skills market” would result in 106,000 more vocational jobs in the economy in 10 years, JSA said.
Australia’s persistent trade shortages are set to multiply over the coming years, as potential immigration changes loom.
There are also big projects afoot. Across the country, there are plans for 90 data centres, an ambitious target of 1.2 million new homes by 2030, net zero by 2050 and a $1 billion investment in advanced manufacturing. These will all create further demand for vocational workers, particularly in construction, engineering and automotive roles.
Gauld agrees that people starting their careers should consider a trade or something that involves critical thinking.
“When you look at the priorities in this nation right now, we’re talking about housing, we’re talking about the care economy,” he said.
“We’re talking about a future made in Australia. Huge numbers of these roles require an apprenticeship or traineeship pathway. There is huge opportunity for really meaningful, well-remunerated work in a whole range of occupations with quite low exposure.
“But even those occupations with higher exposure, we still need that human judgment, we still need that critical thinking.”
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