Nearly half of Muslims living in France would consider leaving the country if Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 presidential election, according to a new Ifop survey commissioned by Marianne, set to be published in the magazine’s Thursday, 15 October edition. The finding itself could serve as a headline for her right-wing, anti-immigration National Rally’s campaign, while the survey’s other results also reveal changing sentiment in French society regarding immigration, Islam and national identity.
The poll, whose findings were first reported by Causeur on Wednesday, 14 October, was conducted by Ifop among 9,689 adults between 25 and 30 September. It found that 46 per cent of Muslim respondents would contemplate leaving France under a Le Pen presidency, compared with 21 per cent of the general population. Meanwhile, 81 per cent of Muslims believe discrimination and hostility towards their community would increase, while 27 per cent would consider concealing their religious identity.
‘81 per cent of Muslims believe discrimination and hostility towards their community would increase’
Among Jewish respondents, 44 per cent also expressed a willingness to leave, despite the RN’s efforts to distance itself from its antisemitic past. Marine Le Pen expelled her father, party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, in 2015 and has since positioned the party as a defender of French Jews against Islamist antisemitism. However, recent allegations of antisemitic remarks involving Le Pen’s protégé and party leader Jordan Bardella, which he strongly denies, have renewed criticism from mainstream and Jewish groups over the sincerity of the party’s transformation.
French society, with or without Le Pen, shows considerable support for restrictions on Islamic clothing. Some 53 per cent of French respondents oppose Islamic headscarves in public streets, while 75 per cent support banning abayas in public secondary schools. Another 72 per cent favour prohibiting conspicuous religious symbols during sporting competitions. Le Pen has proposed putting broader restrictions on Islamic veiling to a national referendum.
Beyond that, the RN advocates stricter border controls, reduced immigration, a certain degree of remigration and greater priority for French citizens in access to public benefits.
Recent polling suggests that Muslims considering leaving France under a Marine Le Pen presidency might want to start packing their bags. The National Rally candidate leads every first-round scenario tested in a Toluna–Harris Interactive survey published on 12 October, securing 35–37 per cent against 18–19 per cent for far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon. In hypothetical second-round contests, she receives 67 per cent against Mélenchon and 56 per cent against former prime minister Édouard Philippe.
Prediction markets also favour Le Pen: as of 14 October, Polymarket traders put her chances of winning the presidency at around 44 per cent, compared with 20 per cent for Philippe and 12 per cent for Mélenchon. Another market gives her an 82 per cent chance of finishing first in the opening round.
Related articles:
The post Nearly Half of Muslims Living in France Consider Leaving if Le Pen Wins Presidency appeared first on Hungarian Conservative.