The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have reached a point in their season where simply being competitive isn't enough. At 1-5, they need to start finishing games, and Sunday's NFC South matchup against the Carolina Panthers offers a chance to get back on track against the division leader.
Tampa Bay enters Week 7 after a 26-19 overtime loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, a game in which the Buccaneers led 16-3 into the fourth quarter before watching it disappear. Now they'll face a Carolina team that has won two straight games and developed one of the NFL's most productive offenses.
According to the Buccaneers' official Week 7 game preview, Carolina ranks second in total offense at 404.4 yards per game and fourth in scoring at 29.2 points per game. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, ranks 24th in total offense at 292.7 yards per game and 25th in scoring at 19.8 points per game.
Baker Mayfield's return could give the offense a much-needed boost
The biggest storyline heading into Sunday is Baker Mayfield's expected return after missing three games with a dislocated right thumb. Mayfield practiced fully all week, and head coach Todd Bowles expects him to start, though the veteran quarterback is officially listed as questionable.
Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels deserves credit for stepping into a difficult situation and helping Tampa Bay earn its first victory against Dallas. However, the Buccaneers have been limited offensively while asking an inexperienced quarterback to recognize blitzes, adjust protections, and make decisions against NFL defenses.
Mayfield's experience should give offensive coordinator Zac Robinson more flexibility, but his return won't solve every problem. Tampa Bay ranks 30th in passing offense at 164.8 yards per game and 28th in red-zone touchdown percentage at 47.4%. The Buccaneers also rank 30th in sacks allowed per pass attempt, making pass protection an important concern against Carolina.
That challenge grows harder with right tackle Luke Goedeke ruled out with a calf injury. Wide receiver Emeka Egbuka will also miss Sunday's game with concussion and foot injuries, leaving Tampa Bay without one of its leading receiving threats.
Bucky Irving could be the difference against Carolina's run defense
While Tampa Bay has struggled through the air, its rushing offense has been more productive. The Buccaneers rank eighth in the NFL with 127.8 rushing yards per game, and Bucky Irving leads the team with 452 rushing yards.
Carolina has been vulnerable against the run, allowing 132.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks 27th in the league. The Panthers also give up 5.12 yards per carry, giving Tampa Bay an opportunity to establish its running game rather than relying entirely on Mayfield's arm.
Irving's ability to create yards after contact could be particularly important. A productive running game would help keep Tampa Bay out of obvious passing situations, reduce pressure on its offensive line, and give Robinson more opportunities to use play-action.
Carolina will also be without outside linebackers Jaelan Phillips and Thomas Incoom, who were ruled out Friday. Their absences could give Tampa Bay more opportunities to attack the edges of the defense.
Tampa Bay's defense faces its biggest challenge in Bryce Young
Carolina quarterback Bryce Young has taken a significant step forward this season. In five starts, Young has thrown for 1,549 yards and averages 309.8 passing yards per game, the highest mark in the league entering Week 7.
The Panthers lead the NFL in passing offense, averaging 295.6 yards per game, with Tetairoa McMillan emerging as Young's top receiving threat. McMillan has 32 receptions for 471 yards, while running back Chuba Hubbard has contributed 426 rushing yards and six touchdowns.
Tampa Bay's defense has performed considerably better than its record suggests. The Buccaneers rank fourth in total defense, allowing 299.5 yards per game, and second against the run, surrendering just 75.5 yards per contest.
Young defenders such as Josiah Trotter, Rueben Bain Jr. and David Walker have performed well, while the secondary has remained competitive despite injuries. Trotter leads the team with 48 tackles, and Walker has recorded four sacks through six games.
However, the Buccaneers will again be without Antoine Winfield Jr., who was ruled out with a rib injury. His absence creates another challenge against a Carolina offense that can attack defenses downfield.
The Buccaneers have to finish
Despite encouraging defensive statistics, Tampa Bay's inability to close out games remains a major concern. The Buccaneers held Pittsburgh to three points through three quarters before the Steelers rallied to an overtime win.
Tampa Bay ranks eighth in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert just 33.8% of their opportunities. However, Pittsburgh converted three critical third downs in the fourth quarter and overtime, preventing the Buccaneers from protecting their lead.
The defense deserves criticism for those late-game breakdowns, but the offense also needs to provide more support. Sustaining drives, controlling possession, and turning red-zone opportunities into touchdowns would keep Tampa Bay's defense off the field longer.
Carolina enters Sunday's matchup with a 3-2 record and a chance to widen its lead in the NFC South. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, cannot afford another game where promising stretches are overshadowed by costly mistakes.
Mayfield's expected return, Carolina's struggles on the ground, and Tampa Bay's defensive production all offer reasons for optimism. But those advantages won't matter unless the Buccaneers execute for four quarters.
Sunday's game offers Tampa Bay a chance to begin turning its season around. Another loss would leave the Buccaneers at 1-6 and facing an increasingly difficult path back into the division race.
This article originally appeared on Bucs Wire: Buccaneers vs. Panthers: 3 keys to a crucial Week 7 matchup