The crypto market has been rising for a fourth day, but the recovery remains cautious. Bitcoin is holding steady at $84K, while outflows from BTC and ETH ETFs are heightening risks.
Market Overview
The crypto market is continuing the recovery that began on Friday, but is rising more slowly; after four consecutive days of gains, it has managed to recoup only two-thirds of the losses incurred on Wednesday and Thursday of last week. At $2.83T, market capitalisation is now 1.1% higher than a day ago, but 3.5% below the level seen a week earlier. At current levels, the crypto market is only just approaching the support zone that held at the end of September. This caution clearly indicates that cryptocurrencies are in the early stages of a bull market, with buying on dips evident but overall sentiment remaining fairly cautious. Among altcoins, a positive trend has prevailed over the last 24 hours, with the ratio of rising to falling coins around 12:1. The top gainers were Filecoin (+13.2%), Internet Computer (+12.8%), and NEAR Protocol (+11%). The worst performers were Cosmos (−3.5%), Theta Network (−1.9%) and Immutable (−1.5%).
Fig. 1. The crypto market is on the verge of entering a former support zone.
Bitcoin is starting the week near $84K, continuing to move away from the 50-day moving average, which it touched on Thursday. At current levels, the BTC price exceeds the previous support zone, suggesting that resistance has not shifted downward and may only materialise near $87K. Only a sustained move above this level will pave the way to $94K, a target we have been discussing since the middle of last month. Although the bullish reversal at the end of last week was not particularly impressive in magnitude, it clearly demonstrated that the balance of power lies with the bulls and that buyers are keen to step in during dips.
Fig. 2. Bitcoin has risen for a fourth consecutive day, having rebounded from the 50-day MA on Thursday.
News Background
According to SoSoValue, net outflows from spot BTC ETFs totalled $681.1 million over the week, the highest since the end of June. Outflows from US spot Ethereum ETFs have continued for the second week in a row. Net outflows from ETH ETFs amounted to $542.1 million, the highest since January.
TD Cowen has raised its Bitcoin forecasts but warned of risks for Strategy shareholders. The issue of new securities and the company’s financial obligations may limit returns for Strategy’s ordinary shareholders.
According to Lookonchain, mining company MARA has transferred 996 BTC to Galaxy Digital addresses. MARA had previously sold part of its Bitcoin holdings while continuing to mine and accumulate new coins.
Justin Drake, one of Ethereum’s lead developers, has called on the crypto market to go into ‘bunker mode’ due to the risk of crypto wallets being hacked as AI capabilities in solving mathematical problems advance. According to him, this could happen within ‘months, not years’, as previously expected. Glassnode has estimated that 21% of the total Bitcoin supply is vulnerable to such an attack.
The FxPro Analyst Team