The global shipbuilding boom is gathering pace, with orderbooks surpassing their previous 2008 peak, Chinese yards tightening their grip on the market and tanker owners increasingly turning to inexperienced builders to secure delivery slots.
New figures from BIMCO put the global orderbook at 203.2m compensated gross tonnes (cgt) at the start of September, up 13% year-on-year and just below May’s all-time high of 210.4m cgt.
China captured 74% of new cgt contracted over the preceding 12 months, lifting its share of the global orderbook to 64%, against South Korea’s 19% and Japan’s 6%. Containerships account for 30% of tonnage on order and 68% of the past year’s growth.
BIMCO calculates that Chinese yards hold orders equivalent to 4.2 years of recent peak annual production, compared with 1.9 years in South Korea and 1.7 in Japan.
Chinese yards are scheduled to deliver a record 44m cgt in 2028, nearly twice the 22.7m cgt delivered in 2025
“Chinese yards are scheduled to deliver a record 44m cgt in 2028, nearly twice the 22.7m cgt delivered in 2025,” said BIMCO chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen, warning that the necessary capacity expansion risks leaving yards underutilised when contracting eventually slows.
The squeeze is already bringing new shipbuilders into the tanker market. Veson Nautical reports that 51 vessels have been ordered at newly entering yards this year, up 34% from 2025. Eleven of the 16 yards identified are Chinese. The standout is Hengli Shipbuilding, which delivered its first vessel in 2024 and now holds an extraordinary 495-ship orderbook valued at $46bn.
“Owners’ willingness to place orders at yards without an established tanker track record likely reflects capacity constraints at established tanker-building yards,” observed Veson analyst Rebecca Galanopoulos.
Yet, despite the rush, tanker newbuilding prices remain surprisingly affordable relative to historical peaks.
Broker Affinity noted in a recent research note that VLCC newbuilding prices are still 20% to 25% below their 2008 highs in nominal terms, despite today’s unprecedented tanker earnings. Adjusted for inflation, a $160m VLCC in 2008 would cost roughly $250m today, nearly double current prices.
Affinity argued that Hengli’s enormous capacity injection has restrained prices, although disappearing early delivery slots and shortages of engines and pumps could soon trigger another upward move.
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Sam Chambers
Starting out with the Informa Group in 2000 in Hong Kong, Sam Chambers became editor of Maritime Asia magazine as well as East Asia Editor for the world’s oldest newspaper, Lloyd’s List. In 2005 he pursued a freelance career and wrote for a variety of titles including taking on the role of Asia Editor at Seatrade magazine and China correspondent for Supply Chain Asia. His work has also appeared in The Economist, The New York Times, The Sunday Times and The International Herald Tribune.
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