LatAm Expat & Nomad Daily Guide — Monday, October 12, 2026
The Short Version
In short: Your LatAm expat and nomad daily guide for Monday, 12 October 2026. Hurricane Simon stayed off Jalisco’s coast on Sunday and weakened to Category 3. The US National Hurricane Center expects it to cross west-central Mexico around midweek. Monday is a public holiday in Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Colombia. Mexico’s peso closed Friday at 18.41 per US dollar, the dollar’s highest close, and the peso’s weakest, since at least 1 April. Prediction markets price a Flávio Bolsonaro win of Brazil’s presidency near 86% (bets, not polls).
01
Mexico: Simon moves north. The hurricane did not come ashore in Jalisco on Sunday. Our update on Simon explains what changes for Nayarit and Sinaloa.
02
Mexico: the peso slides. The dollar cost 9.0% more pesos on Friday than on 4 September. Our explainer on the peso sets out why and what it means for your rent.
03
Argentina: inflation data on Tuesday. INDEC reports September prices after a 1.7% rise in August. Our preview for foreign residents sets out the forecasts.
What changed since yesterday Simon did not make landfall in Jalisco, as Mexican authorities had expected on Saturday. By 6 p.m. Mexico City time on Sunday it had weakened to Category 3. Brazil’s PTAX fixing (the central bank’s reference dollar rate) is unchanged at 4.9892 reais from Friday. Colombia’s official rate (TRM) is still 3,194.44 pesos per dollar through Monday.
00The LatAm Expat Nomad Daily Guide Status Board
| Story | Yesterday | Now | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane Simon | Category 4, landfall expected in Jalisco (Sat) | Category 3, offshore (Sun, 6 p.m.) | Weaker, track moving north |
| Puerto Vallarta airport | Closed from 6 p.m. Saturday | Reopening planned 8 a.m. Monday | Provisional |
| Brazil PTAX (sell) | Thu 8 Oct: 5.0119 | Fri 9 Oct: 4.9892 | Real slightly firmer |
| Mexico peso (EODHD close) | Thu 8 Oct: 18.20 | Fri 9 Oct: 18.41 | Peso weaker |
| Colombia TRM | Fri 9 Oct: 3,218.75 | Sat 10 to Mon 12 Oct: 3,194.44 | Peso firmer |
01Getting Around
Mexico’s Pacific coast: Hurricane Simon. Simon reached Category 4 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale early on Sunday. By 6 p.m. Mexico City time it was a Category 3 hurricane with winds of about 205 km/h (127 mph), about 80 km (50 miles) south of Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco, Mexican media reported.
The centre did not come ashore in Jalisco on Sunday. It moved parallel to the coast, and the US National Hurricane Center expects it to cross west-central Mexico around midweek. Mexico’s weather service points to Sinaloa on Wednesday or Thursday. A hurricane warning covers the coast from Playa Perula in Jalisco to El Roblito in Nayarit. Puerto Vallarta airport closed at 6 p.m. on Saturday and is due to reopen at 8 a.m. on Monday, if inspections allow. Contact your airline before you go to the airport. Our Simon update carries the details, and our checklist for foreigners sets out what to prepare.
Holiday Monday. Monday 12 October is a national holiday in Brazil (Our Lady of Aparecida), Argentina, Chile and Colombia. Brazil’s stock exchange, B3, is closed and bank branches shut, while banking apps usually keep working. See our closures guide.
Brazil: loud weeks, normal days. Campaigning continues until the runoff on Sunday 25 October, 13 days away. Foreign residents do not vote.
02Cost of Living & Money
Each measure is labelled, and dates differ by country. Brazil’s PTAX and Argentina’s official rate are Friday’s figures (Argentina’s informal rates are from Sunday evening); Colombia is the official rate in force over the weekend; Mexico, Chile and Peru are market closes from EODHD, a market-data provider, not official fixings.
Brazil. The PTAX fixing was 4.9892 reais to sell on Friday 9 October, against 4.9859 on Monday 5 October and a weekly high of 5.0119 on Thursday 8 October. At 4.9892, R$1,000 is about US$200. IBGE, the statistics institute, reported on Friday 9 October that official inflation (IPCA) rose 0.82% in September and 4.58% over 12 months. The EODHD calendar lists the seasonally adjusted monthly rise as 0.88%. That is above 4.5%, the top of the central bank’s target range (3% with a 1.5-point tolerance). Our rent and power-bill guide has the detail.
Mexico. The dollar closed at 18.41 pesos on Friday 9 October, up from 16.89 on 4 September, and traded near 18.40 early on Monday. It is not the official FIX rate (Banxico’s daily reference rate). At 18.41, MXN 10,000 is about US$543. Our explainer covers the cause.
Chile. The market close was 976.86 pesos per dollar on Friday 9 October, against 978.95 on Thursday. This is not the official observado (the central bank’s reference rate), which we could not read today. At 976.86, CLP 1,000,000 is about US$1,024.
Colombia. The TRM (the official representative rate) is 3,194.44 pesos per dollar for Saturday 10 to Monday 12 October. It was 3,218.75 on Friday. At 3,194.44, COP 1,000,000 is about US$313.
Argentina. DolarApi shows the official Banco Nación rate at 1,485 to buy and 1,535 to sell (Friday afternoon). The blue (informal market rate) is 1,520 and 1,540. The CCL (contado con liquidación, a rate for dollars bought through securities) is 1,605.5 and 1,606.6. ARS 1,000,000 is about US$651 at the official sell rate and about US$622 at the CCL sell rate. ArgentinaDatos puts country risk (the extra yield investors demand on Argentine dollar bonds) at 589 points on Friday 9 October.
Peru. We could not obtain SUNAT’s (the tax authority’s) rate. The market close was 3.4302 soles per dollar on Friday 9 October, and banks quote their own rates. At 3.4302, PEN 1,000 is about US$292.
The wider picture. Brazil’s dollar rate moved within a narrow band last week, from 4.9698 to 5.0119 reais, while Mexico’s peso weakened by 1.2% on Thursday and 1.2% on Friday. One week does not set a trend, and currencies often overshoot after news and then settle.
03Visas, Residency & Tax
Colombia: 19 days left. Foreigners holding a permanent-resident visa issued under earlier rules must transfer it before 31 October 2026, the Foreign Ministry has reiterated. The process is online; the ministry advises using its official site without intermediaries. Our earlier explainer sets out who is affected.
Brazil: foreigners and the runoff. Only Brazilian citizens vote. Foreign residents have no ballot. A Datafolha poll released on 8 October (2,520 interviews, 6 to 8 October, margin of error 2 points) put Flávio Bolsonaro at 49% and Lula at 45% in the runoff. Polls are snapshots. Our runoff guide covers the practical side.
04What Prediction Markets Say
Hurricane Simon’s strength. Polymarket prices a peak of Category 4 at 97.0% and Category 5 at about 3% (US$17,520 traded). Kalshi, regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), prices Category 5 or above at 7%. Stand: 12 October, 00:45 ET.
Brazil’s presidency. Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 86.1% and Lula at 12.5% to win (US$180.3 million traded). Stand: 12 October, 00:45 ET.
Mexico’s central bank in November. Polymarket prices no change at 71.5% and a 0.25-point cut at 20.2% (US$52,513 traded). Stand: 12 October, 00:45 ET.
Argentina’s September inflation. Polymarket prices a monthly rate of 1.9% to 2.1% at 61.0% and 1.6% to 1.8% at 30.5% (US$31,938 traded). Stand: 12 October, 00:45 ET.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
05The Calendar Ahead
Mon 12 OctPublic holiday in Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Colombia. B3, Brazil’s stock exchange, is closed. Puerto Vallarta airport is due to reopen at 8 a.m., if inspections allow.
Tue 13 OctArgentina’s September inflation from INDEC at 4 p.m. Buenos Aires time (August: 1.7% for the month; the EODHD calendar consensus is 2.0% for the month).
Wed 14 – Thu 15 OctHurricane Simon may cross Sinaloa, according to the US National Hurricane Center and Mexico’s weather service. Forecasts may change.
Fri 23 OctBrazil’s October mid-month inflation (IPCA-15) at 9 a.m. São Paulo time (the EODHD calendar consensus is 4.6% over 12 months).
Sun 25 OctBrazil’s presidential runoff, with voting from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time.
Sat 31 OctColombia’s deadline to transfer older permanent-resident visas.
Tue 3 – Wed 4 NovBrazil’s central bank sets its Selic rate (Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, now 13.75%).
Thu 5 NovBanxico’s rate decision at 1 p.m. Mexico City time, according to the EODHD calendar (now 6.50%).
Dates come from official calendars and the EODHD economic calendar; consensus figures are forecasts, not ours. The region does not move as one block, and each release can push a currency either way.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Hurricane Simon make landfall in Jalisco?
Not as of Sunday evening, 11 October 2026. Simon, a Category 3 hurricane by then, was moving parallel to the coast about 80 km (50 miles) south of Cabo Corrientes. The hurricane centre expects it to cross west-central Mexico around midweek, and Mexico’s weather service points to Sinaloa on Wednesday or Thursday. Forecast points can shift, so check the latest official bulletin.
Which Latin American countries have a holiday on Monday 12 October 2026?
Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Colombia. Each marks a national holiday on that Monday and gets a three-day weekend. In Brazil, bank branches and the B3 stock exchange are closed, and banking apps usually keep working.
When does Argentina publish its September 2026 inflation?
INDEC, Argentina’s statistics institute, is due to publish September consumer prices on Tuesday 13 October 2026. August’s monthly rate was 1.7%. The central bank’s survey expected 1.9% for September, and that is a forecast, not a result.
Connected Coverage
- Hurricane Simon Skirts Jalisco, Sinaloa Is Next
- Mexican Peso Falls Past 18.40 on Central Bank Minutes
- Hurricane Simón: Checklist for Foreigners in Mexico
- Argentina Inflation Due Tuesday After 1.7% in August
- Brazil Runoff Day on 25 October for Foreign Visitors
- South America Holiday Closures on 12 October 2026
- Brazil Rent and Power Bills After 4.58% Inflation
- Colombia Resident Visa Transfer: Old Residente Holders Have Until October 31, 2026
- Colombia hub · Brazil hub · Mexico hub · Peru hub
Sources: Hurricane Simon as reported by the US National Hurricane Center (advisories to number 19 of 12 October 2026, read through mirror pages), Mexico’s weather service via Infobae and López Dóriga, La Jornada and El Financiero (10 to 12 October 2026); Cancillería de Colombia (visa-transfer notice, 2026); Datafolha (poll of 8 October 2026); Banco Central do Brasil (PTAX, Olinda API); Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia via datos.gov.co (TRM); DolarApi and ArgentinaDatos (Argentina rates and country risk); EODHD (market closes for Mexico, Chile, Peru and Brazil charts); Banco de México and Mexican financial press (peso); IBGE and INDEC calendars; EODHD economic calendar; Polymarket and Kalshi (prediction markets, 12 October 2026).