The Royal Moroccan Air Force's first F-16 Block 72 carried out its maiden flight on 6 October in Greenville, South Carolina, Lockheed Martin has announced. It is now progressing through pre-delivery testing after some delays in the programme. It is the most eye-catching piece of a rearmament drive that is being closely watched in Spain.
But, with the numbers in front of us, how much military weight does Morocco actually have today compared with Spain? Spain is still far ahead in terms of budget and easily dominates at sea. Rabat, by contrast, has more soldiers and rocket artillery, a capability the Spanish Army has lacked for the past 15 years.
Defence spending: more than six to one
The clearest gap is in spending. According to the latest report by Sipri (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), Spain allocated around 34.287 billion euros to Defence in 2025, 50% more than the previous year, pushing its military burden up to 2.1% of GDP. Morocco came to 5.645 billion euros, up from 4.920 billion in 2024. That increase keeps it as Africa's second-biggest military spender, behind Algeria, which spent 22.660 billion.
Behind that lies the size of each economy. Morocco closed 2025 with a GDP of 138.668 billion euros, according to the World Bank, while the Spanish economy was around 1.69 trillion euros. Twelve times larger.
Does Morocco really spend 10% of its GDP on Defence?
It is one of the figures most often circulated, but it does not fit with Sipri's time series. The institute itself puts Morocco's 2025 military spending at 3.54% of GDP. The 10% looks much more like another indicator: Defence's share of public expenditure, which Sipri calculates at 10.28% for 2025.
Something similar happens with the budget figures. Morocco's 2026 finance law authorised future spending commitments for the National Defence Administration of 157.170 billion dirhams, around 14.7 billion euros, a multi-year line that is often presented as if it were spending in a single year. What will actually be disbursed in 2026 in payment appropriations comes to 55.300 billion dirhams (5.157 billion euros).
Spain, meanwhile, hit 2% of GDP in 2025 and aims to consolidate that in 2026, although it remains the only ally to have refused to sign up to the 5% target for 2035.
Manpower: more troops south of the Strait
Here the balance tips the other way. Several sources converge on Morocco having between 195,000 and 200,000 active-duty personnel and some 150,000 reservists. In addition, unlike Spain, Morocco maintains compulsory military service, reintroduced in 2019. In troop numbers, Morocco's military strength comfortably exceeds Spain's.
This is where the oft-quoted 400,000 figure, which has gone viral in various media, should be treated with caution. The number comes from Global Firepower's profile updated on 21 January 2026, which also credits the African country with some 250,000 reservists, and, as of publication, no other independent record backs it up.
The Spanish Armed Forces have a staffing problem. On 1 January 2025 there were 116,739 military personnel in active service, below the legal minimum of 130,000 set by the Military Career Act, and the year ended with 832 fewer troops. The reserve is even weaker: at the start of 2024 there were 3,091 voluntary reservists.
Aviation: Eurofighter versus F-16 Viper
Spain flies more aircraft, but faces a longer-term question mark. FlightGlobal's World Air Forces 2026 directory credits it with 81 EF-18 Hornets and 67 Eurofighters, with another 45 on order. The first Halcón, a twin-seater, rolled out of the Getafe plant on 1 June, and the second batch will start to be delivered in 2030.
The problem is what comes next. Spain shelved the F-35 in August 2025 in order to buy European, and in June 2026 the FCAS, the fighter it was banking on, fell apart between France and Germany. Paris will now develop its own aircraft on its own.
Morocco is taking a different path. Washington approved in 2019 the sale of 25 F-16 Block 72s for some 3.380 billion euros, plus 23 kits to upgrade the F-16s it already operates.
And the F-35? There are signs of advanced talks, but the deal remains in the realm of the possible and would still need final approval from the US administration and Congress. Specialist media have spoken of 32 aircraft costing around 13.5 billion euros spread over 45 years, including maintenance, but there has been no official confirmation.
In helicopters, Rabat already has 12 of the 24 AH-64E Apaches it ordered and is expecting the rest in phases between 2026 and 2027. Spain will upgrade its 18 Tigers to the MKIII standard. Morocco has also completed delivery of the Israeli Barak MX system, with three batteries and 225 interceptor missiles with a range of up to 70 kilometres, according to Sipri's database.
Ground forces: where Rabat presses hardest
It is on land that Morocco's military strength comes closest to Spain's. Rabat operates the US M1A2 Abrams and, although opacity makes an exact count impossible, some 200 units are estimated to be in service and another 150 on order. Spain fields 220 Leopard 2E tanks and around 50 2A4s, and plans to upgrade them to the 2A8 standard.
The most striking asymmetry is in multiple rocket launchers. Global Firepower credits Morocco with 185 systems and Spain with none; the Army lost that capability when the Teruel system was withdrawn in 2011. Morocco, by contrast, combines Chinese systems with Israel's PULS, already in service, and is awaiting the US HIMARS, of which Washington has approved the sale of 18 launchers.
There is a paradox here. Spain's Silam programme was to be based precisely on PULS, but the contract was cancelled because of the embargo on Israeli military technology imposed by the government; on 30 December 2025 Escribano and Rheinmetall Expal presented the Defence Ministry with a national alternative. In the meantime, the Moroccan Army is already receiving 8x8 WhAP armoured vehicles assembled in the country.
At sea, the gap is vast
The Navy is Spain's big safety cushion. Its backbone consists of five Álvaro de Bazán-class F-100 frigates, whereas Rabat's flagship is a single FREMM frigate. On top of that Spain has the LHD Juan Carlos I, which serves as an aircraft carrier, and two Galicia-class amphibious assault ships.
Under water there is simply no comparison, as submarine capability is one of Morocco's historic shortfalls. The S-81 Isaac Peral has been in service since November 2023, and the S-82 Narciso Monturiol has been undergoing port and sea trials since the summer, with delivery scheduled for the last quarter of the year; it will be the first to be fitted from the outset with air-independent propulsion. On the surface, the F-111 Bonifaz frigate, first in the new series, will join the fleet in 2028.
The Washington factor in Morocco's military strength
What has changed in 2026 is the political backing behind the purchases. Morocco and the United States signed at the Pentagon a military cooperation roadmap for 2026-2036, and by February the Royal Armed Forces had already tested the Link-16 tactical communications system, until now reserved for NATO members.
The US Senate has gone a step further: a clause in its defence bill instructs the Pentagon to deliver within 180 days a ten-year plan to turn Morocco into its most capable military partner in Africa. The United States already accounts for around 60% of Morocco's arms imports.
Rabat also wants to manufacture at home. The government has authorised ten defence industrial projects worth around 231 million euros in investment, and a letter of intent envisages producing in the country a long-range autonomous strike system, the Irifi, with a declared range of around 2,000 kilometres.
Spain has other cards to play. Its defence industry places it among the few countries capable of designing and building its own conventional attack submarines, and it belongs to NATO, although the geographical scope set out in Article 6 of the Washington Treaty does not explicitly include Ceuta and Melilla.
What the rankings don't measure
In the 2026 Global Firepower index, Spain ranks 18th out of 145 and Morocco's military strength appears in 56th place. It is the most frequently cited ranking, but it does not publish an auditable methodology and acknowledges that it relies on the CIA World Factbook and unidentified sources.
The trend, in any case, is upward. Morocco's military strength was ranked 59th in the 2025 edition and 61st in 2024. Nor does the index keep pace with deliveries: it gives Spain zero tanker aircraft, even though the Air Force is taking delivery of its third A330 MRTT this year.
The real friction between the two countries has not, moreover, involved fighters or armoured vehicles. At the end of July, the arrival of migrants in Ceuta led to a mass crossing by sea and over the breakwater at the border, the most serious crisis between the two countries since 2021.
The next figure to be scrutinised in Madrid will arrive soon. Mohammed VI on Saturday chaired in Rabat the Council of Ministers that approved the general guidelines of the 2027 budget, and the Defence allocation will be known once the draft reaches Parliament.