We've reached the midway point of the season, and the last three weeks have not been kind to West Virginia, mostly due to the lack of defensive execution in their losses to Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Arizona.
The Mountaineers are desperate to get back in the win column, and now, they face a ticked-off Cincinnati team that had a week to let their blowout loss to Arizona stew while also getting some much-needed rest.
It's hard to place any blame on WVU's offense, but they didn't play a perfect game against Arizona either, fumbling twice, which led to 14 points. Still, it falls on the defense for giving up 28 points on 10 plays in the second half. Although the Wildcats were able to get separation, the Mountaineers were much more competitive against them than Cincinnati was, for whatever that's worth.
What the ESPN FPI says for WVU vs. Cincinnati
According to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) matchup predictor, the West Virginia Mountaineers have just a 40.6% chance to snap this three-game slide and move back above .500 for the season. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has been given a 59.4% chance of winning this one, although they are not favored by the sportsbooks.
Too high? Too low? Just Right?
Look, I know things have been ROUGH the last few weeks for the Mountaineers, but I think this is a very winnable game for them and, in all honesty, it's one they absolutely need to get if they want to reach bowl eligibility. Losing this one puts you in a really challenging spot, having to win three of the final five games with a bunch of really good teams still on the schedule.
Cincinnati's defense is in a bad spot too, and their offense is good, but not nearly as explosive as what WVU saw with Oklahoma State and Arizona. The key in this one will be for West Virginia to slow down the Bearcats' rushing attack, and while they haven't been good against the run in league play either, it's a much more favorable matchup than going against a spread-it-out, air-it-out type of offense like they saw last week. They've shown that they are capable of stopping the run to some degree. Pass defense has been the bigger issue.
I'm really surprised this isn't a lot closer to a 50/50 toss-up, especially with how one-sided this series has been over the years, regardless of how infrequently it has been played recently.
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