This not the same Duke team from last year, according to Virginia tight end John Rogers. Both teams have seen several players come and go (especially in the case of the Blue Devils). What hasn't changed, however, is that both teams really need a win this weekend.
Here are 10 important notes about Duke.
Home cooking
Scott Stadium has not been kind to the Blue Devils. They have not won there since 2013. Overall, Virginia has won nine of the past 11 matchups.
Duke might have the best running back in the country
Multiple outlets elected Nate Sheppard as their pick for Midseason First Team All-American. It is deserved. Sheppard leads the country in yards per game, with an incredible 179.8. The Cavaliers defense will face a tremendous challenge.
A new cast
Most of the stars of Duke's ACC title run are gone. There are a few notable ones left (Sheppard, tight end Jeremiah Hasley and linebacker Luke Mergott, but the leading characters have departed). Here is a quick list of key departures:
- Quarterback Darian Mensah (Miami)
- Wide receiver Cooper Barkate (Miami)
- Wide receiver Que’Sean Brown (Virginia Tech)
- Defensive back Terry Moore (Ohio State)
- Defensive lineman Wesley Williams (NFL Draft)
- Defensive back Chandler Rivers (NFL Draft)
- Offensive lineman Brian Parker (NFL Draft)
- Defensive lineman Aaron Hall (NFL undrafted free agent)
Who starts for Duke?
After that large exodus, the Blue Devis ended up starting 10 first-time starters (seven of which are on defense). That new blood is supplemented by nine transfers, including quarterback Walker Eget.
Two unimpactful quarterbacks
Eget and Virginia starter Beau Pribula are the second and third-lowest quarterbacks on the ACC passing yards leaderboard (min. five starts). Only six ACC quarterbacks have accounted for fewer than 10 total touchdowns. Eget is one of them. Because this spread offense flows through the run game, Eget has not been expected to carry this offense to even a tenth of the extent that Mensah did.
Blue Devils can claw back
In the Coach Manny Diaz era (2024-present), Duke ranks second in FBS in comeback wins (five) when it trails by double digits. The Blue Devils are especially stingy in the fourth quarter, fighting back to steal victory from the jaws of defeat. However, Duke has lost two close games in a row.
Missed tackles could be a massive issue
Virginia's biggest flaw has been rampant missed tackles. In fact, two of the top four runners in forced missed tackles have played against the Cavaliers (West Virginia's Cam Cook and Florida State's Ousmane Kromah). Right behind them is Sheppard. Virginia must clean things up, or else Sheppard might break 250 yards.
Duke does not give up sacks
The Cavaliers defense is tied for ninth in the ACC in sacks (14). Don't expect them to get some (if any) Friday. Duke's offense has allowed the fewest sacks in the country (2). Both of those sacks came in the same game, at Illinois. The Blue Devils have not allowed any sacks in their other five games.
Hasley a big threat
Among ACC tight ends, Hasley ranks second in yards per game (47.7). The only ACC tight end with more is Daunte Bacheyie of Syracuse — who found some success against Virginia's defense two weeks ago. The Cavalier linebackers have struggled in pass coverage.
Potent defense
Nationally, Duke has actually been quite impressive. Its defense is ninth in third down percentage (29.2%), 13th in first down defense (98 total yards allowed), and also ranks in the top quartile in several other categories.
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