BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Monday, 19 October, 1:12 p.m. ET · Source: DataTrends poll
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Monday 19 October, the DataTrends polling institute published a new runoff survey with Flávio Bolsonaro ahead by three points.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 51.5% of valid votes and Lula 48.5%, while raw totals read 49% to 46%, with a 2.19-point margin of error.
- The change DataTrends’ previous poll, fielded 7 to 9 October, had Flávio at 53.1% and Lula at 46.9% in valid votes, so the gap has narrowed.
- Fieldwork 2,000 voters were interviewed by automated telephone on 15 to 17 October across all 27 states.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (19 October, 1:10 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 24% and 20%), as of 19 October, 1:00 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The published reports do not say who commissioned the survey, and interviews ended on Saturday 17 October.
DataTrends, a Brazilian polling institute, published a new runoff survey on Monday 19 October that puts Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, ahead of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, by 51.5% to 48.5% of valid votes. It came six days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff on Sunday 25 October.
Among all respondents, including blank and undecided voters, Flávio has 49% and Lula 46%, Farol da Bahia reported. Our Brazil election polls tracker lists every runoff survey side by side.
What the DataTrends Poll Found
DataTrends interviewed 2,000 voters in all 27 states by automated telephone on 15, 16 and 17 October, Farol da Bahia reported. The margin of error is 2.19 points at 95% confidence, and the poll is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-04454/2026.
In raw totals, 4% of respondents chose blank or null and 1% gave no answer. Valid votes leave those answers out, which matches how Brazil reports its official result.
Farol da Bahia described a tight race in the final stretch of the campaign. The same figures appeared on the Blog Edmar Lyra on the same day.
How It Compares With the Last DataTrends Poll
DataTrends’ previous runoff poll, fielded 7 to 9 October, had Flávio at 53.1% and Lula at 46.9% of valid votes, Poder360 reported. In raw totals it read 50% to 44%, according to Times Brasil.
The valid-vote lead has narrowed from 6.2 points to 3 points in about a week. In raw totals, Flávio slipped from 50% to 49% while Lula rose from 44% to 46%.
Voters Split on the Government
The poll also asked about the federal government: 52% disapprove and 46% approve, with 2% giving no answer, Farol da Bahia reported. Approval of a sitting president is a common gauge of how much support he can hold in a runoff.
Here the split is close to even, which fits the narrow gap between the two candidates. It is one poll, and other institutes use different methods.
What It Means for US Readers
A race this close can keep Brazilian assets, including the real and US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, volatile until the count on 25 October. DataTrends is one of several pollsters, so compare it with the others before reading too much into one number.
The winner will set Brazil’s course on trade and diplomacy with Washington for the next four years. A 3-point gap with a 2.19-point margin of error does not make either side a certain winner.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.5% chance of winning the runoff and Lula 23.5% (19 October, 1:10 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has about US$188.2 million in total trading, and you can compare all Brazil Brazil election odds on our tracker page.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.5% · Lula 23.5% (US$188 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 20%
As of 19 October, 1:00 pm ET (18:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The reports we reviewed do not say who commissioned or paid for the DataTrends survey. It is also not known whether voter opinion has moved since interviews ended on 17 October.
It is not known how undecided voters will turn out on 25 October, or which way they will go. A poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest DataTrends runoff poll?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 51.5% of valid votes against 48.5% for Lula. In raw totals he has 49% and Lula 46%.
When was the DataTrends poll conducted?
Interviews ran from 15 to 17 October with 2,000 voters, and the results came out on Monday 19 October. The margin of error is 2.19 points.
How did the DataTrends poll change from last week?
The previous poll, fielded 7 to 9 October, had Flávio at 53.1% and Lula at 46.9% of valid votes. The lead has narrowed from 6.2 points to 3 points.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, six days after this poll was published. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
What are valid votes in a Brazilian poll?
Valid votes leave out blank and null ballots and undecided answers. Pollsters publish them to match how the electoral authority reports results.
Sources: Farol da Bahia, 19 October 2026; Blog Edmar Lyra, 19 October 2026; Poder360, 11 October 2026; Times Brasil, 11 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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