“Not Going to Make a Mistake"- Ryan Blaney Rejects Law of Averages on Kyle Larson’s Chase Run With Humble 'Mindset' Claim

Ryan Blaney knows that hoping for a bad weekend from the points leader is not a strategy he can afford to follow. Larson has set a remarkable standard through the first six races of the 10-race Chase. His average finish at this stage is the second-best ever across a comparable six-race stretch in the final 10 races of a season, behind only Jimmie Johnson’s 2004 campaign.

As a result, this consistency has put the No. 5 Chevrolet in a commanding position, leaving its rivals needing something special to close the gap. However, instead of waiting for Larson’s form to dip, Blaney believes his competitors must prepare for the possibility that Larson and his team will continue executing at the same level.

When a reporter suggested logic catching up to Larson at some point, Blaney gave a clear assessment of how he sees things.

“No, I’m treating it as: they’re not going to make a mistake, and we have to go win races to catch them,” he said in an interview shared by Kelly Crandall on X.

Ryan Blaney's confidence in his Chase strategy reveals a driver determined to defy expectations. Subscribe to stay ahead of every pivotal moment in the playoff battle.

The temptation to expect regression is understandable. Sustaining such a high level of performance over six races is difficult, particularly when every weekend presents a variety of issues; different track conditions, strategic decisions and opportunities for mistakes.

Yet Blaney believes that assuming Larson must eventually have a bad race could leave his rivals unprepared if the No. 5 team continues to deliver. He even acknowledged that if Larson maintains his form through the remainder of the Chase, the Hendrick driver deserves full credit for it.

“Everyone’s like, ‘Oh, law of averages, he’s going to have a bad weekend,’ but they might not, you know? And if they don’t, that’s props 100%. You know, you did a heck of a job; you really whipped up on everybody,” Blaney added.

That’s not to say that he is throwing in the towel. Instead, it shows that Blaney understands what needs to change if he wants to challenge Larson. Waiting for the leader to make an error would leave too much outside his control, especially with just four races remaining to narrow points deficit.

Instead, Blaney wants Team Penske to focus on its own performance. If Larson continues collecting strong finishes, his challengers will need to produce victories and maximize their points opportunities to keep the title fight alive.

“So that’s my mindset: they’re not going to have a bad week, and we have to capitalize on it,” he said.

Blaney’s recent approach holds even more weight after Larson’s sustained dominance. In an earlier interaction with SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, the Penske driver acknowledged how difficult it was to compete with Larson after his maximum-points performance at Kansas. Blaney’s own strong finish could not match the points haul Larson secured through stage wins and the race victory.

This is the difference between simply having a good weekend and having the kind of performance needed to catch up to the championship leader.

The Penske driver has also earlier said that after Larson’s dominant Kansas performance, his team needed to win two of the final six races at that point to give itself a shot at the title.

His latest comments reinforce the same principle. Good finishes remain important, but they may not be enough if Larson continues to build on his lead. Winning races gives Blaney a chance to collect a much larger points haul while also limiting the points Larson can gain from another dominant result.

“If he executes the rest of the way, we have to go win a couple at least to try to get there,” Blaney said.

Blaney’s approach also places greater importance on avoiding mistakes of his own. If the No. 12 team loses ground through an unforced error or a disappointing finish, it could make the task of catching Larson even harder. The team must deliver strong results and turn opportunities into wins whenever they arise.

That said, there might be a slim window of opportunity at Phoenix.

Despite four consecutive top-five finishes at the track, Larson recently described it as one of his team’s weakest venues, saying its speed typically places it around 11th to 13th rather than among the fastest cars.

In an interaction with SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, the Hendrick driver credited strategy, pit-road execution and the ability to navigate restarts for helping produce those results. However, it would be a mistake to assume that the No. 5 Chevrolet will automatically struggle simply because Larson has identified Phoenix as a weakness. His previous results show that he can still finish strongly when the car is not at its best.

Blaney’s comments suggest he is taking precisely that approach. He is not dismissing the possibility of Larson having a difficult weekend, but he refuses to build his championship strategy around it.

“We’re not waiting on them to make a mistake; we want to capitalize on running well and winning races,” he said.

With four races remaining after Charlotte, the championship fight is entering its decisive stretch. Larson has established the benchmark, and Blaney knows that the only reliable response is to raise his own team’s performance.

The law of averages may eventually catch up with the leader, but Blaney is not prepared to wait and find out. If Larson keeps executing, the No. 12 team will need to win its way back into contention. For Blaney, that is the mindset that matters: assume the rival will deliver, focus on what can be controlled, and make the most of every chance to close the gap.

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