BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 23 October, 5:25 p.m. ET · Source: Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) decision, as reported by Estadão and Agência Brasil
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Friday 23 October, an electoral court minister barred anyone from taking Lula’s big WhatsApp channel offline before the full court rules.
- The penalty Meta, which owns WhatsApp, faces a fine of R$50,000 a day (about US$10,000) if it breaks the order.
- Who asked Lula’s campaign filed the request, which in practice cancels the effect of Flávio’s campaign complaints.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Kalshi, a market regulated in the US by the CFTC, prices a Flávio Bolsonaro win by at least 1 point at 68% and a Lula win by at least 1 point at 16% (5:07 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 76% and Kalshi at 76% (Lula: 24% and 25%), as of 23 October, 5:00 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The full court has not ruled on the channel.
Brazil’s electoral court minister Floriano de Azevedo Marques barred any suspension of the pro-Lula WhatsApp channel “Exército do Lula” (Lula’s Army) on Friday 23 October, two days before the runoff. The order stops the court’s own president, Kassio Nunes Marques, from suspending it without the full court, according to Estadão.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 50.9%, Lula 49.1%
40 national polls from 20 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
The decision reshapes the final weekend of the Brazil election 2026 campaign. The channel, run by federal deputy André Janones, has more than 9 million subscribers, Agência Brasil reported.
What the Court Order Says
Marques, a minister of the court, ruled alone on a preventive writ of mandamus, a fast legal petition against an authority’s act, filed by Lula’s campaign. He barred the court presidency from suspending the channel before the full court decides, Estadão reported.
He set a fine of R$50,000 (about US$10,000 at 4.98 reais per dollar, EODHD) for each day Meta fails to comply, Terra said in its headline. The order says it prevails over any single-judge administrative decision, on pain of the fine and a possible criminal inquiry under Article 347 of the Electoral Code.
Why the Court President Is Involved
Nunes Marques heads the court. Flávio’s campaign has pressed it to act against the channel, which it accuses of misuse.
It is not the first reversal. On 11 October, the court’s electoral ombudsman (corregedor) overturned a decision by the president that had taken the channel offline, Estadão recalled. Nunes Marques also met Meta, X, Google, TikTok and Kwai that day and asked for equal treatment of all candidates.
What It Means for You
If you follow US tech policy, the case shows how far a Latin American court can go in policing a Meta product during a campaign. The fine is small for Meta, but the order sets who can switch off a channel with millions of followers.
Investors in Brazilian assets should watch for further court clashes before Sunday. Disputes over campaign tools can feed doubts about how smoothly the vote and its count will run. The Brazil election odds page tracks the market view.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Kalshi, a market regulated in the US by the CFTC, traders price a Flávio Bolsonaro win by at least 1 point at 68% and a Lula win by at least 1 point at 16% (5:07 p.m. ET). A margin-of-victory market has drawn 34,934 and 44,782 contracts across the two sides.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 75.8% · Lula 23.5% (US$193 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 76% · Lula 25%
As of 23 October, 5:00 pm ET (22:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
We have not seen a date for a full-court ruling on the channel. We have not seen Meta’s technical report on the channel published.
It is not known whether Flávio’s campaign will appeal to the full court before Sunday. Nothing in the order decides whether the channel broke any election rule.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who stopped the ban on the Army of Lula channel?
Floriano de Azevedo Marques, a minister of Brazil’s electoral court, barred any suspension on Friday 23 October. Lula’s campaign had asked for the order.
What is the Army of Lula channel?
It is a WhatsApp channel run by federal deputy André Janones that supports President Lula. It has more than 9 million subscribers.
Can the channel still be taken down?
Not by the court presidency alone, under this order. A ruling by the full court or in a regular election case would still be possible.
What is the penalty for ignoring the order?
Meta faces a fine of R$50,000 (about US$10,000) per day. Violations could also be investigated as a crime under Article 347 of the Electoral Code.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, two days after this order. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
Sources: Estadão, 23 October 2026; Agência Brasil, 23 October 2026; Terra, 23 October 2026; Kalshi, 23 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Free · Any country in the world · Prediction markets
Want prediction market reports on your country?
Pick any country in the world. Your report arrives the moment you confirm, then every Sunday: what the markets say about elections, currencies and policy there, with volumes and plain-English explanations.
The Rio Times · Power Map
See who really holds power in Latin America
Click to open the Power Map →