Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Tehran on Monday for talks with senior Iranian officials, raising questions over whether Moscow could play a greater role in mediating between Iran and the United States amid fears of renewed war.
The visit comes as diplomatic efforts to avert another confrontation intensify, with The New Arab reporting on Monday that a breakthrough in US-Iran mediation efforts could be announced this week.
Senior sources familiar with negotiations told The New Arab that Qatar and Pakistan were working to narrow differences between Washington and Tehran and secure mutual concessions, while ruling out an immediate military escalation.
Lavrov's visit, his first to Iran since the US-Israeli war began on 28 February, follows Moscow's recent involvement in exchanging messages between the two countries.
It also comes ahead of a possible visit to Tehran by Pakistan's army chief, General Asim Munir, who has been involved in mediation efforts between Washington and Tehran.
The timing has raised speculation that Lavrov could be carrying messages from Washington, while his arrival from Bahrain on Sunday has also prompted questions about whether he could be conveying messages from Gulf states amid heightened regional tensions.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei described the visit as part of ongoing consultations between Tehran and Moscow aimed at following up on bilateral agreements and discussing regional and international developments.
Russia's foreign ministry said the talks would involve a "frank and in-depth" exchange of views on bilateral cooperation, major international issues and developments in the Gulf, including possible ways to resolve the crisis stemming from the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Ahead of his arrival, Lavrov criticised US President Donald Trump's approach towards Tehran as "wrong", arguing that it would not help achieve an agreement based on mutual respect and international law.
Can Russia mediate between Iran and the US?
Russia's potential mediation role began taking shape earlier this month, amid growing contacts between Moscow and Washington over the war in Ukraine.
On 10 October, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov revealed that Russian President Vladimir Putin had informed his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian of an upcoming telephone conversation with Trump.
The exchange followed a meeting between Putin and Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan on 9 October.
The Kremlin subsequently announced that Putin had conveyed Iran's position on a possible settlement to Trump, raising expectations that Moscow could become another diplomatic channel between Washington and Tehran.
However, Iranian officials have stopped short of recognising Russia as a formal mediator.
Baghaei said last week that, "technically, in the strict sense of the word", Pakistan and Qatar remained the actual mediators between Iran and the United States.
He added that consultations between Tehran and Moscow, particularly on the nuclear issue, were nothing new.
Experts question prospects of Russian mediation
Iranian analyst Hadi Mohammadi told The New Arab that Lavrov's visit reflected growing Russian concerns about developments in the Gulf and the possibility of further escalation.
He said Moscow appeared to be intensifying its diplomatic activities in an attempt to contain tensions, noting that the US-Iran confrontation had become closely linked to the war in Ukraine amid renewed contacts between Washington and Moscow.
Mohammadi suggested that Lavrov could be carrying messages from Washington or Israel during what he described as an extremely sensitive period.
He recalled that Putin had previously conveyed messages between Tehran and Israel, including an Israeli assurance before the latest war that it did not intend to attack Iran.
However, Mohammadi expressed limited confidence in Russia's ability to secure a breakthrough.
He argued that some international actors were making a fundamental mistake by pressuring Iran alone to accept the other side's conditions, while overlooking Tehran's position that it had been attacked and had complied with the Islamabad memorandum of understanding reached in June, which Iran accuses Washington of violating.
Mohammadi said Lavrov's visit could help reduce regional tensions but was unlikely to resolve the crisis on its own.
At best, he suggested, it could mark the beginning of further diplomatic exchanges, although he did not rule out the possibility that it represented a final attempt to avert another war.
Iranian analyst Abbas Aslani similarly told The New Arab that Lavrov's visit reflected the depth of cooperation between Tehran and Moscow in confronting Western pressure.
He said shared economic, political and military challenges had strengthened the importance of bilateral and regional coordination.
Aslani considered it possible that Lavrov was carrying a response or message from Washington, although he cautioned against drawing conclusions before the talks took place.
He also suggested that Moscow could use the visit to assess the Trump administration's position ahead of the US midterm elections on 3 November.
According to Aslani, Russia was already familiar with Iran's strategic red lines, including the conditions outlined in Tehran's seven-day proposal, and was unlikely to persuade Iranian officials to make substantial changes.
He described the visit as a potential opportunity to exchange "hard truths", but argued that any genuine breakthrough would depend on Washington accepting the new balance of power and security in the Gulf.