SENATORS Raphael T. Tulfo, Robinhood Ferdinand C. Padilla, Alan Peter S. Cayetano and Pasig City Mayor Victor Ma. Regis “Vico” N. Sotto ranked among the top four senatorial choices for the 2028 elections, with overlapping scores indicating no statistically clear leader, according to OCTA Research.
The independent, nonprofit research organization released the results of its noncommissioned survey on Monday. Respondents were shown a list of candidates and asked whom they would vote for if the May 2028 elections were held that day, with as many as 12 choices allowed.
OCTA interviewed 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4.
“The survey captures voter preferences under a specific hypothetical list during the Sept. 28 to Oct. 4, 2026 fieldwork period,” OCTA said in a statement. “Some names were removed from the list at their request, and prospective candidates receiving less than 1% were omitted from the published results.”
“The findings therefore should not be read as a complete candidate lineup, a prediction of who will file a candidacy, or a forecast of the 2028 senatorial election,” it added.
Mr. Tulfo got 47% of voter preferences, followed by Mr. Padilla at 45%, Mr. Cayetano at 44% and Mr. Sotto at 42%. All four had rank ranges spanning first to fourth, meaning their relative positions were not statistically distinct, OCTA said.
Former Senator Mary Grace Natividad S. Poe-Llamanzares followed at 36%, while Senator Lorna Regina B. Legarda received 31%. Their rank ranges were fifth to sixth and fifth to ninth, respectively.
Former Makati Mayor Mar-len Abigail Binay-Campos got 29%, former Pampanga Governor Mark T. Lapid had 28% and Senator Francis G. Escudero got 27%.
Former Senators Juan Edgardo “Sonny” M. Angara and Emmanuel “Manny” D. Pacquiao, Sr. tied for the 12th spot in the preliminary ranking, each with 25%.
OCTA said several other candidates remained competitive for a place in the top 12, including former Senator Aquilino Martin L. Pimentel III and lawyer Salvador S. Panelo, who each received 20%.
Senator Mark C. Villar followed at 19%, while former Senator Gregorio B. Honasan II and Labor Secretary Francis N. Tolentino each received 18%. OCTA said these candidates remained within the range for the last available slot.
Mr. Tulfo displaced Mr. Padilla as the leading hypothetical senatorial choice from the second-quarter survey released in July. Mr. Padilla’s rating fell 11 percentage points from 53.9%, while Mr. Tulfo’s remained essentially unchanged at 47%.
OCTA said the findings did not represent a complete candidate lineup or predict who would file for candidacy. “Preferences may change substantially as political alignments, candidacies, campaign conditions, public issues and voter information evolve,” it said.
The survey had a margin of error of ±3 percentage points and a 95% confidence level. — Francessca S. Abalos