MUMBAI: The Indian rupee closed nearly unchanged on Monday, erasing modest early gains after local stocks slumped and importers stepped in to buy dollars over a largely subdued trading session.
The Indian rupee hovered between 94.76 and 94.96 through the day before closing the session at 94.9250, nearly flat compared with its closing level on Friday.
India’s benchmark stock gauge, the Nifty 50, fell over 1%, pressured by weakness in heavyweight information technology and financials stocks, both of which are among the sectors most heavily owned by foreign investors.
Traders said importers’ dollar demand was also a drag on the local currency on Monday even as Brent crude oil prices fell about 2% to $108 per barrel.
Oil prices dropped following US President Donald Trump’s decision to waive some sanctions on Russia. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the president will use up to 60 days to assess the impact of the sanctions and tariffs on the global economy.
In the near term, market focus is turning to US midterm elections as a “risk event,” after which either the Iran war could restart or it could diminish in focus for markets, an FX salesperson at a foreign bank said.
Trump has previously said the US will not attack Iran before the November vote.
The looming possibility of renewed conflict in the Middle East is likely to keep market sentiment cautious in the near term, traders said.
More immediately, though, the focus will be on release of the minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s October policy meeting, at which the central bank delivered its first rate hike in four years. Investors will study the minutes for cues on how quickly and by how much could rates be raised further.
“We expect a 25bp hike in December, but persistent FX pressure despite the RBI’s recent measures would raise the probability of a 50bp hike, or a 25bp repo hike accompanied by an increase in the Marginal Standing Facility rate to widen the policy corridor,” ANZ said in a note.