Bitcoin: ETF outflows persist, and the rise slows down

Bitcoin rebounded on Monday after hitting $80,595 on Sunday, but its recovery quickly lost strength. The price briefly exceeded $83,000 before falling back below $82,000. This movement comes as investors monitor capital outflows from US ETFs and the lack of new buyers. Despite the sales slowdown, several indicators highlight a still fragile market, while operators remain cautious about downside risks.

Bitcoin rebounds but stalls below $83,000

On Monday, the market avoided the crash feared by some observers, nicknamed “Black Monday“. After intense selling pressure, Bitcoin climbed over $2,000 from its low of $80,595 reached on Sunday. This progress allowed the price to temporarily break above $83,000. However, buyers did not manage to maintain this momentum throughout the session.

Daily charts show that the $83,000 resistance quickly slowed the advance. After finding initial support above $82,500, the price attempted a new breakout toward this level. This attempt, observed around 5:35 AM Eastern Time, failed. The price then dropped to $82,069 before briefly rebounding above $82,500.

The rest of the session confirmed the market’s difficulty in sustaining this rise. Fluctuations multiplied around $82,000 without enabling further lasting gains. At 1:20 PM Eastern Time, the Bitcoin price traded at $81,926, a rise of about 1% for the day. Its market capitalization then exceeded $1.64 trillion, despite the decline from its intraday high.

Liquidations remain limited despite volatility

The price fluctuations did not trigger a massive wave of liquidations in the Bitcoin market. Their total amount remained below $67 million during the observed period. According to Coinglass data, platforms liquidated nearly $34 million in long positions. Short positions, for their part, accounted for just under $33 million.

This almost balanced distribution shows that both trader categories suffered market movements. Investors betting on a rise lost their positions when prices fell. Conversely, some operators who bet on a decline were liquidated during the rebound. These figures reflect the effects of rapid variations but do not alone indicate the direction the market will take.

Across all cryptocurrencies, liquidations reached $334 million. Long positions represented $173 million of this total. However, Ether followed a different trend than Bitcoin. Short position liquidations on ETH reached $73 million, compared to $42 million for long positions. This difference highlights that price movements did not affect all major digital assets equally.

ETF outflows weigh on Bitcoin

Flows from spot exchange-traded funds continue to reflect institutional investors’ caution. US Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $228.6 million last week. This number follows a previous week marked by $681 million in withdrawals. Despite the slowdown in outflows, flows remain negative and do not yet show a significant return in demand.

All crypto ETFs also suffered significant withdrawals over the same period. Funds lost about $593 million, while Ether-linked products recorded $320 million in outflows. These data show that selling pressure extends beyond the Bitcoin market alone. They also indicate persistent investor caution regarding digital assets, while the recent rebound has not yet led to a clear recovery in capital inflows.

This situation limits the prospects for a sustained rise in the short term. When ETFs register net outflows, they do not provide the buyer support expected from part of the institutional market. The drop in outflows may reduce selling pressure, but it does not guarantee a return of purchases. To extend its progress, the market will therefore need to show clearer signs of demand beyond just the sales slowdown.

Glassnode observes still insufficient demand

Glassnode’s on-chain analysis confirms the difficulties faced by the market. The company observes a reduction in massive selling that accompanied the early October decline. However, buyers have not yet taken over significantly. Spot investors and ETF buyers remain scarce, while ETF trading volumes fall below their usual lower range.

Options markets also show that operators continue to hedge against a possible decline. Implied volatility exceeds realized volatility, indicating persistent demand for protection against future fluctuations. Meanwhile, on-chain data signals a capital shift toward new market entrants. This movement occurs as network fees and transfer volumes have decreased by about 10%.

Glassnode also notes a slowdown in profit-taking after the massive selling phase. This development accompanies the recent price stabilization but is insufficient to confirm the formation of a sustainable floor. The market must still regain stronger demand to support new gains. In upcoming sessions, Bitcoin’s ability to defend the $82,000 zone and break above $83,000 again will therefore remain an important aspect to watch.

Monday’s rebound moved the market away from the low of $80,595, without erasing signs of caution. As long as ETFs record net outflows and buyers remain inactive, the rise may lack support. A sustained return above $83,000 would strengthen the recovery signal, while a new weakening would expose the price to increased selling pressure. Upcoming institutional flows and changes in demand will help better gauge the market’s resilience.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.