Polling advantages held by Democrats and a growing number of competitive races in Republican strongholds have led some observers to suggest that a “blue wave” in this year’s midterms could be more accurately forecast as a blue “tsunami.”
According to the latest polling averages from the aggregator Decision Desk HQ, Democrats lead Republicans 48 percent to 40 percent nationally. The forecaster Race to the WH currently gives the former an 88 percent chance of winning a House majority and a 72 percent chance of winning the Senate.
Though these numbers have grown increasingly bleak for the GOP, President Donald Trump has framed the contest in both chambers as winnable and crucial to advancing his agenda and avoiding another impeachment effort.
Longtime GOP strategists who spoke with Newsweek recently said Trump's repeated remarks—casting doubt on the integrity of U.S. elections—suggested he expected the party to suffer significant losses come November 3.
“If Republicans lose both Houses of Congress, expect Donald Trump to make several harsh statements,” the political consultant Matt Klink told Newsweek.
Newsweek reached out to the White House via email for comment.
Three Signs of a Blue Tsunami
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The latest quarterly poll from Gallup found that 50 percent of Americans now consider themselves Democrat or a “Democratic leaner," compared with only 39 percent for the Republican Party. The share of those leaning left has steadily risen since late 2024, but the 50-percent mark had not previously been achieved since 2009.
"The party lean category is a good indicator of vote intentions," Stephen Ansolabehere, a professor of government at Harvard University, told Newsweek last week. "Generally, when it’s a good year for a party the proportion of people who lean in the direction of the eventual winner of the election goes up in October and November. Come January or February that category returns to its original levels."
Beyond general affiliation, the party also appears to be profiting from current frustrations with the Republican administration’s handling of the economy. A Reuters/Ipsos poll published in August showed that Democrats led Republicans on the economy 37 percent to 36 percent—their first edge on this issue in nearly a decade.
In September, Democrats secured their first lead in NBC News polling on which party voters trust more on the economy since December 2017, beating the GOP 39 percent to 38 percent.
2. Republicans Pulling Money Out of Georgia and North Carolina
In what has also been viewed as a sign of Republicans' waning confidence, the party has been devoting less attention to Senate races in Georgia and North Carolina, which Trump carried in 2024 and which were earlier seen as integral to keeping control of the upper chamber.
The party’s North Carolina Senate candidate, Michael Whatley, has not won a single major poll since The New York Times began tracking these in late 2024, and the forecaster RacetotheWH gives his opponent, Roy Cooper, a 90 percent chance of victory.
In Georgia, meanwhile, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi now give the incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff over a 95 percent chance against his Republican rival, Mike Collins.
Some within the GOP have questioned whether it is worth investing in races with such bleak odds, with retiring Senator Thom Tillis quoted by The Associated Press as arguing that the party has “got to place our bets on the candidates that are the best run, either ahead or within striking distance.”
“It’s important that resources are directed where there’s a high probability of a winning outcome,” a Republican senator, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Semafor last month. “North Carolina and Georgia have consistently shown us behind. It’s not an easy environment.”
Semafor reported that the Senate Leadership Fund, a prominent GOP PAC associated with Majority Leader John Thune, had suspended spending in North Carolina. Two Republican officials said that the party was likewise redirecting efforts away from Georgia and toward more winnable contests.
Republicans are also pouring significant funds into protecting seats which, in other years, likely would have been considered safe. NPR reports that various GOP-linked groups spent over $94 million on ads supporting Texas Senate Candidate Ken Paxton in September alone.
The analysis firm AdImpact last week estimated that Republicans had put $323 million into the Texas race, compared to $116 million spent by Democrats supporting James Talarico.
3. Rural Voters are Increasingly Turning on Trump
Though polls show Trump retaining support among those who consider themselves part of his core MAGA base, other groups which brought him to power have expressed increasing frustration with his agenda.
A poll from the Associated Press and KFF published September 23 found that 45 percent of rural Republican voters think Trump has improved their local economies better and only around four in 10 of the wider rural voting group approve of his economic stewardship.
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More broadly, a Politico poll found that a quarter (26 percent) of those who supported Trump in 2024 believe Republican candidates should distance themselves from the president when campaigning.
"Trump is now more of a liability than an asset," said the Republican political strategist Mike Madrid told Newsweek last month, adding that lawmakers from the party have "always chosen to live with him" but are now "seeing more value in distancing from him."
“President Trump's ratings are understandably very low and he has not provided any clear message or guidance for the country except chaos and lack of concern over affordability,” Matt A. Barreto, faculty director at the UCLA Voting Rights Project, told Newsweek.
He said that Democrats “can take advantage of this” with a clear affordability-focused message, but that the past decade of elections “have taught us that this country is very evenly divided and our national elections have been extremely close on razor thin margins, which is why paying attention to turnout is critical.”
Some Republican Voters Appear to Be Ignoring Pollsters
As occurred in 2016 and 2024, underrepresentation of Republican voters in polling is seen as something that could significantly limit their election forecasting potential. With many Senate races in toss up territory, this group turning out on Election Day could drastically alter the overall results.
According to the pollster Chaz Nuttycombe, executive director of the election forecaster State Navigate, the number of rural Republicans ignoring surveys had forced the firm to repeat its polls.
“We think this could be a Canary in the Cornfields for Iowa polling this year,” he posted to X.
“While the political environment looks very negative for President Trump and Republicans right now, these are preelection polls and not votes,” said Barreto. “We don't yet know what voter turnout will be and Republicans do hold an advantage on fundraising and advertising spending.”
Sean Trende, an elections analyst at RealClearPolitics, responded to Nuttycombe’s post, writing: “There's a decent literature suggesting that when the information environment gets bad for a party their members simply stop responding to polls.”
“As we start to see early vote and mail vote patterns, that will offer clues as to how mobilized and energized Democrats are, and whether Republicans are going to fight for Trump or stay home,” Barreto told Newsweek.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Sam Wilson.