The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) is going through a challenging period, but a new survey shows it remains the country’s leading political party. A poll conducted by research company Asal among 2,020 people between Oct. 4 and Oct. 10 found that 31.6% of respondents would vote for the party if a general election were held today.
The main opposition New Party (YP) followed with 25.2%. The Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) ranked third with 8.8%, slightly ahead of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), the AK Party’s partner in the People’s Alliance. The Good Party (IP) followed the MHP with 7.1%, ahead of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which received 5.1%.
The IP was founded by former MHP members, while Özgür Özel’s ouster as CHP chairman in May led to the establishment of the YP by Özel and fellow CHP lawmakers in July. The Victory Party (ZP), also founded by former MHP members, trailed the CHP in Asal’s poll with 3.4%.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s chief adviser Mehmet Uçum, who also serves as deputy chair of the Presidency’s Legal Policies Board, sought to clarify the debate over the date of the next elections last month. Uçum told journalists that the elections would most likely be held on April 16, 2028, the anniversary of a 2017 referendum on the transition to an executive presidential system. He also stressed that this would be the last election in which Erdoğan would be eligible to run.
Uçum said the elections could be held on that date if Parliament approved their renewal, a move that would require the support of 360 lawmakers. He described the possibility of an election in the last quarter of 2027 as “low,” amid opposition calls for an early vote.
Under Turkish law, the next general election would normally be held in May 2028. However, the Constitution allows Parliament to call an early election with the support of at least 360 of its 600 lawmakers, a move that would open the way for Erdoğan to seek another term. The People’s Alliance holds 326 seats in Parliament.
The government has repeatedly insisted that elections will be held on schedule. Erdoğan, who became prime minister in 2003, was elected president in 2014 after serving three terms as prime minister.