After a narrow 17-14 win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers at home in Autzen Stadium, the Ducks head on the road to start a crucial lineup of games that will determine Oregon's fate when it comes to making the postseason.
Next up for the Ducks is a road matchup in Champaign, Illinois, with the Illinois Fighting Illini. DraftKings’ latest line lists the Ducks as 12.5-point favorites. The over/under is 51.5 points.
Though the Ducks are heavy favorites, if this season has taught Oregon and coach Dan Lanning anything, it's that no opponent should be underestimated. Though Illinois sits at No. 13 in the Big Ten Conference, the Fighting Illini could present a challenge for Oregon as the Ducks look to build momentum heading into the second half of the season.
How Oregon Has Performed Against the Spread This Season
The Oregon Ducks have struggled to live up to expectations this season, and their track record against the spread is a key reflection of that struggle. While Oregon has won four of its first six games, the Ducks have covered in just two of those games. Those games were an 84-0 win over Portland State and a 41-27 victory over USC.
Interestingly, Oregon's struggles against the spread have largely come when the Ducks have been expected to win comfortably. They opened the season as 25.5-point favorites against Boise State (DraftKings) but escaped with a 34-27 win. Then, Oregon suffered a 39-31 upset against Oklahoma State as 23.5-point favorites (DraftKings). Most recently, Oregon failed to cover as a 6.5-point favorite against Nebraska, winning by just three points.
Oregon's history against the spread is something worth watching as the Ducks prepare to travel to Champaign.
What Common Opponents Reveal About Oregon vs. Illinois
Although Oregon and Illinois have yet to meet on the field this season, their performances against common opponents offer some insight into how Saturday's matchup could unfold.
Illinois scored just 17 points in a 24-17 loss to Purdue back on Oct. 3, while UCLA scored 52 points against that same Boilermakers defense in September. UCLA later held Oregon to just 15 points in its upset win at Autzen Stadium, which showed how much the Ducks can struggle when an opponent disrupts their offensive rhythm.
Illinois will likely try to follow a similar blueprint. However, there is a key difference between Illinois and the teams that have given Oregon trouble this season. Nebraska held Michigan State to just 13 points before limiting Oregon to 17 in Eugene. Illinois, meanwhile, surrendered 37 points to the Spartans in a 38-37 overtime win.
The situational factors also play a role. Illinois is coming off a bye week, which gives Illinois coach Bret Bielema and his staff extra time to recover and prepare for Oregon. The Ducks, on the other hand, are coming off a narrow win over Nebraska and have yet to consistently put away conference opponents.
Oregon is favored to win, but the bigger question is whether the Ducks can do enough to cover the 12.5-point spread on the road.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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