Irish military planners are to recommend the purchase of more than 550 armoured vehicles for the Defence Forces, enough to transform the Army from a primarily peacekeeping force into one capable of limited conventional war fighting.
Experts have warned, however, that the Defence Forces is ill equipped to undertake such a transformation and that the cost of such an acquisition could easily exceed €14 billion.
The measure is part of a move to transform the Irish military into a force capable of the home defence of the country along with taking part in EU expeditionary operations such as the EU Rapid Deployment Capability, also known as the EU Battlegroup.
It is also designed to provide soldiers with the protection needed to embark on peacekeeping missions in highly unstable areas, such as the Sahel region in Africa.
As previously announced, the armoured vehicles will be purchased from France under a government-to-government scheme as part of the “Scorpion Programme”
Vehicles to be acquired under the proposed deal will include the Griffon, a six-wheel APC; the Serval, which is a smaller four-wheeled armoured car; and the Jaguar, a tank-like “armoured fighting vehicle” equipped with a large turreted gun.
These will complement the Defence Forces’ existing fleet of Mowag APCs, which recently completed a midlife refit at a cost of €95 million.
The new armour programme will transform the Irish Army from a light infantry force, with limited armoured elements, to one with enough armoured vehicles to equip an entire brigade of 4,000 troops.
The recommendation for more than 550 vehicles is significantly higher than previous estimates of 300 to 400 vehicles.
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The programme will require significant assistance from France in maintenance of the vehicles. According to military sources, it is likely some of the initial training on the vehicles will take place in France.
The Government has yet to detail the cost of the programme, much of which will depend on how much funding the Department of Public Expenditure is willing to grant.
Alan Kearney, a retired Defence Forces weapons specialist, said the procurement cost would be “a drop in the ocean” compared with the total lifetime cost.
In 2018, Belgium signed a deal to purchase 442 Scorpion vehicles from France with an announced cost of €1.6 billion.
Last year Belgium’s spending watchdog, the Court of Auditors, stated that the total lifetime cost of the purchased vehicles would be more than €14 billion. This includes €60 million a year on maintenance.
Kearney, who has prepared a report on the planned armoured vehicle purchases for the Oireachtas Public Accounts and Defence and National Security Committees, also questioned the ability of the Defence Forces to take on such a large project, given previous procurement failures.
“Where are they going to go? Who is going to maintain them? Who is going to fix the guns?” said Kearney, pointing to the fact that the Army is short of enlisted personnel specialising in vehicle maintenance.
Numbers are slowly growing but it takes years to build up the experience necessary for the upkeep of a large, armoured fleet. “It’s a recipe for disaster,” Kearney said.
Previous procurement issues include problems with maintenance and spare parts for the Mowag fleet, including an incident which led to two machine guns breaking during a firefight with Islamic forces in Syria in 2013.
Earlier this month, the State’s spending watchdog, the Comptroller and Auditor General, found the purchase of 27 light armoured vehicles in 2008 wasted millions in taxpayer funds. The Department of Defence said it had “learned lessons from this procurement”.
In the Air Corps, all four of the PC-12 aircraft in 2020 for close to €50 million are out of service due to maintenance issues.
Asked about the programme to upgrade the armoured fleet, the Department of Defence said: “A whole-of-capability approach is being adopted, integrating vehicle procurement with doctrine, training, infrastructure, personnel and interoperability requirements.
“As the programme remains in the assessment phase, specifications, role, fleet size, timelines, costs, training arrangements and support requirements remain subject to ongoing negotiations and the necessary approval processes.”