NATO’s ‘false solidarity’: Fico says neutrality would better suit Slovakia

This story was produced in partnership with Reporting Democracy, a cross-border journalism platform run by the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network.

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“Why would French soldiers go and die for Slovaks?” Prime Minister Robert Fico asked during a TA3 interview on 27 September, questioning whether NATO allies would come to Slovakia’s defence in a military crisis.

“Do you think anyone would go and fight for us?” he asked rhetorically. “I am saying this deadly seriously. I simply do not believe in this false solidarity.”

Fico said Slovakia, a NATO member since 2004, would fulfil its obligations to the alliance. But he also returned to an idea he had raised more than a year earlier.

“Military and political neutrality would suit Slovakia better,” he said. “That is my opinion, but I cannot do anything about it because we are in NATO.”

Fico also argued that Article 5, NATO’s collective-defence clause, does not automatically require member states to send soldiers into battle. He said Slovakia could assist an attacked ally through logistics or infrastructure. His former adviser, Eduard Chmelár, suggested that even sending blankets could count as assistance.

The prime minister questioned what Slovakia should do if a NATO member provoked a confrontation with Russia. “If someone here provokes a war with Russia, for example if it were some NATO member state, then why should we go into some provoked war?” he asked.

Ten days earlier, speaking to students at the University of Prešov, Fico told his audience: “I am afraid of war.” He also warned against increasingly aggressive military rhetoric coming out of Europe.

He asked his audience to imagine Slovakia being expected to provide 5,000 or 10,000 soldiers during an Article 5 crisis. Where would they fight, he asked, “with whom, why and for what?”

“I do not want Slovakia to be part of any military conflict because of some Article 5,” he said.

At the same time, Fico said Slovakia valued its cooperation with NATO and would honour its commitments. The notoriously Kremlin-friendly prime minister did not address Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or the hybrid attacks that European governments have attributed to Moscow.

Slovak PM Robert Fico (R) and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte during a reception at the Office of the Government of the Slovak Republic on 18 November 18 2025 in Bratislava. (source: TASR)

Munich and Western security guarantees

Fico continues to invoke neutrality while accusing some of Slovakia’s European and NATO allies of having little interest in peace in Ukraine. The aim is to draw a clear dividing line: his government, he claims, is protecting Slovaks from war, while the opposition would drag them into it. With Slovakia’s economy in deep trouble, the rhetoric also offers a convenient distraction from mounting domestic problems.

Yet what may appear to be political manoeuvring ahead of next year’s election also sends a message to Moscow. By stoking fears of war and casting doubt on Slovakia’s allies, Fico is effectively giving the Kremlin a reassuring pat on the back: its threats are working.

In terms of timing, Fico’s recent statements came ahead of the 88th anniversary of the Munich Agreement on 29-30 September. He had invoked the agreement repeatedly throughout the month.

In 1938, Britain, France, Germany and Italy agreed that Czechoslovakia should surrender the Sudetenland to Nazi Germany. Czechoslovakia was excluded from the negotiations.

Fico has cited Munich as a warning about the dangers facing small Central European countries that depend on larger Western powers for their security.

Britain and France accepted Hitler’s territorial demands in the hope of avoiding war. Hitler subsequently broke his promise to leave the rest of Czechoslovakia alone, and German forces occupied the Czech lands six months later.

Fico has also questioned Germany’s ambition to build Europe’s strongest conventional army by 2039, drawing attention to the last two digits of the year. “Why exactly 39?” he asked. “Why isn’t it 45?” The reference was to 1939, when World War II began, and 1945 when it ended.

So far, so predictable trolling by the populist-nationalist Slovak prime minister who, since Viktor Orban’s ousting in Hungary’s April general election, has been left as the EU’s last major holdout against backing Ukraine in its war with Russia.

Perhaps a more important date, say analysts, is September 2027 – the latest date when Slovakia’s next general election needs to happen.

An Ipsos poll for Denník N, conducted in the second half of January and published in February, found that nearly two-thirds of Slovaks fear a world war could break out within five years.

The concern spanned political divisions and was especially pronounced among opposition supporters. Some 80 percent of SaS voters and around three-quarters of Progressive Slovakia and Slovensko movement supporters expressed such fears.

Within the ruling coalition, seven in ten Hlas voters were worried, along with more than half of voters for Fico’s ruling Smer party. More than 60 percent of supporters of the far-right Republika also expressed such worries.

The conservative newspaper Postoj reported, citing sources within Smer, that the party’s internal polling had identified growing fears of war, including among women.

Fear of military involvement in Ukraine also featured prominently in Slovakia’s 2024 presidential campaign. President Peter Pellegrini presented himself as the candidate who would keep Slovakia out of the conflict, while his opponent, Ivan Korčok, was portrayed as posing a greater risk of Slovak military involvement.

Security analyst Radovan Bránik believes Fico’s remarks are directed primarily at a domestic audience. He said the prime minister is “communicating more with the domestic public and his voters than with reality”.

The Spanish contingent serving as part of the NATO Multinational Brigade in Slovakia, at the Lešť Military Training Area on 23 July 2026. (source: TASR)

Slovakia continues NATO deployments and arms sales

So far, there is little evidence of Fico actually putting the country onto a neutrality path – and there are several reasons why he would not do so.

On the same day that the prime minister warned against Slovakia becoming involved in a conflict “because of some Article 5”, the country’s parliament approved deploying up to 101 Slovak soldiers to NATO’s Eastern Sentry mission.

The troops are expected to operate primarily in Poland and Romania, monitoring allied airspace, providing early warning and supporting integrated air and missile defence. The Defence Ministry described the deployment as a contribution to deterrence and the fulfilment of Slovakia’s allied commitments.

Defence Minister Robert Kaliňák, one of Fico’s closest colleagues in the Smer party, said Slovakia would also use the mission to test its new 3D radars against drone threats under operational conditions.

Slovakia already has 155 soldiers serving in Latvia as part of NATO’s Forward Presence. Fico’s government approved continuing that mission.

The government document authorising the deployment described preparation for collective defence as a key task for Slovakia and NATO, and deterrence as a fundamental element of the alliance’s defence strategy.

Slovakia is also one of three framework nations, alongside Hungary and Croatia, behind NATO’s Multinational Division Centre headquarters in Hungary, which reached full operational capability in 2025 under a Slovak commander.

Foreign NATO soldiers – most of them from Spain – are stationed in Slovakia. The country also continues to rely on its allies for air policing while its new F-16s have yet to join NATO’s integrated air and missile defence system.

Kaliňák nevertheless drew a distinction similar to Fico’s. He said Slovak soldiers are “prepared to protect their allies” if they are attacked under conventional rules of war, while arguing that the present “hybrid war” requires a measured response.

Fico, who frequently calls for peace in Russia’s war against Ukraine without specifying what such a peace would entail, has also criticised European rearmament and warned that arms companies stand to profit from increased military spending. Yet defence manufacturing has become a significant growth driver in an otherwise sluggish Slovak economy.

Slovak exports of weapons and ammunition rose 110 percent last year to almost €2.4 billion, according to figures reported by TV JOJ. “It really is a figure we have not seen in Slovakia’s modern history,” ČSOB chief analyst Marek Gábriš told the broadcaster.

The Czech Republic and Ukraine are among the Slovak defence industry’s most important markets. Fico’s government distinguishes between military assistance provided directly from state stocks, which it opposes sending to Ukraine, and commercial exports by Slovak manufacturers, which it permits.

President Vladimir Putin of Russia, right, meeting with Prime Minister Robert Fico of Slovakia at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing on 2 September 2025. (source: Maxim Shemetov)

‘An invitation to Moscow’

Yet Fico’s comments could still have damaging effects in the real world and have been criticised both from within the governing camp in Slovakia as well as from the opposition and figures elsewhere in the region.

President Pellegrini, who was once the leader of the coalition Hlas party, said he accepted only one interpretation of the prime minister’s remarks: NATO members should avoid provoking Russia and risking an attack on an alliance country. “I do not accept any other interpretation and would reject it,” Pellegrini said, adding that Slovakia could not suggest it might stand aside during a conflict.

Parliamentary speaker Richard Raši, from Pellegrini’s Hlas party, warned against treating collective-defence commitments as merely formal. “If we were to describe this commitment as merely formal or unenforceable, we would also have to accept that our allies might one day take the same position towards us,” he said.

Opposition politicians also inevitably criticised Fico. Progressive Slovakia leader Michal Šimečka accused him of questioning the basic pillar of the country’s defence. Ivan Korčok, a former foreign minister, warned that publicly undermining confidence in NATO amounted to sending Moscow “an invitation”.

“If someone wanted to attack Slovakia, they know that they would not be facing a country of five million, but the strongest alliance in the world,” Korčok said.

Christian Democrat deputy leader Viliam Karas rejected neutrality as a realistic alternative, arguing that Slovakia lacked both the military strength and financial resources to defend itself independently.

“Whoever questions our readiness to help our allies also weakens their willingness to help us,” Karas said. “One day we may be the ones who need Article 5.”

The controversy also reached Prague. Czech President Petr Pavel, a former chairman of NATO’s Military Committee, called them “extremely serious” and warned against questioning solidarity between allies. It was not their first clash: the two have previously disagreed publicly over Russia’s war against Ukraine and how the conflict should be described.

Fico responded that Pavel, a former NATO general, “would like to fight”, while he preferred peace. Pavel said he had heard the same argument before, that a general wants war while others want peace, during the 2023 Czech presidential campaign.

Former Czech foreign minister Jan Lipavský pointed to what Czech forces are already doing for Slovakia. Czech soldiers are serving in the country, while Czech aircraft have helped protect Slovak airspace. If Fico questions military assistance between allies, Lipavský asked, why should the Czechs help defend Slovakia?

Prime Minister Andrej Babiš said the Czech Republic was preparing to deploy two mechanised brigades if Russia attacked a Baltic NATO member. He had previously said Prague would respect Article 5, while declining to comment on Fico’s remarks.

Germany added its voice on 29 September, when Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul visited Bratislava for talks with his Slovak counterpart, Juraj Blanár.

“The greatest threat to freedom on our continent comes from Moscow. The greatest danger to Europe is Putin’s belligerent imperialism,” Wadephul said. “Questioning these facts is not only lacking in solidarity, but it would also be irresponsible.”

Wadephul warned that countries casting doubt on NATO’s collective deterrence put themselves at risk and weakened security guarantees for other alliance members.

Security analyst Bránik says Fico is technically correct about Article 5’s obligations: the clause does not automatically require every NATO member to deploy combat troops when another member is attacked and governments can provide different forms of assistance according to capabilities and circumstances. “On the facts, he is right,” Bránik says.

His concern is how Fico’s statements affect deterrence. A potential aggressor cannot know in advance precisely how NATO members would respond to an attack. Bránik argues that publicly discussing limits on Slovakia’s possible involvement could weaken that uncertainty.

Retired Slovak general Pavel Macko also questions how Slovakia could defend itself without allied guarantees. With roughly 16,000 soldiers, he argues, the country could not defend even one major city alone against a large-scale attack.

Macko rejects neutrality as a guarantee of security, citing Belgium, whose neutral status failed to prevent German invasions during the world wars.

“Not every country has the same capabilities,” he says, pointing to Iceland, which has no standing army, and Luxembourg, whose armed forces are small. “It is still one for all and all for one, but everyone within their capabilities.”

Macko says Slovakia could restrict how its troops are deployed under NATO command, but limiting them to Slovak territory would be deeply at odds with allied solidarity.

Practical constraints remain, too: Slovakia still lacks the fully capable heavy mechanised brigade NATO expects under its force requirements. According to Macko, it may not be ready until 2035 or later.

Slovak Foreign and European Affairs Minister Juraj Blanár (L) and German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul (R) during their meeting in Bratislava on Tuesday, 29 September 2026. (source: TASR)

Pavel Havlíček of the Prague-based Association for International Affairs (AMO) argues that Slovakia lacks the military capacity to repel a major Russian attack independently. Even a war that did not reach Slovak territory would bring refugees, inflation and economic disruption, he says.

Bránik also questions who would determine whether a NATO member had “provoked” Russia, as Fico suggests. He noted that Moscow has already characterised Slovak arms production as provocative.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also recently raised concerns about the credibility of Article 5. Citing intelligence assessments, he warned that Russia could launch drone or missile strikes against NATO countries on its eastern flank, cause damage and then portray the incidents as accidents rather than deliberate attacks.

He argued that such incidents could weaken NATO’s willingness to respond collectively and undermine confidence in its defence commitments. The aim would be to convince alliance members that Article 5 is “more theoretical than practical”, while giving politicians an excuse to argue that their countries should not have to fight for allies such as Latvia or Lithuania.

That confidence in Western hesitation was on display in a recent BBC interview with Sergei Karaganov, honorary chairman of Russia’s Council for Foreign and Defence Policy. Asked whether Europe would retaliate against a Russian nuclear strike, Karaganov dismissed the possibility. “No, there will be no response from Europe,” he said, expressing confidence that neither the UK nor the US would risk nuclear retaliation.

Fico may have his own political reasons for questioning NATO solidarity, but his remarks give Moscow further reason to believe its strategy is working.