Notre Dame still appears College Football Playoff bound, but its margin for error has disappeared
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Notre Dame had a chance to be the No. 1 team in the nation on Sunday morning. All it had to do was beat BYU, a team it was favored by double digits over on Saturday night.
Instead, Notre Dame fell 28-24 in a thriller, and its College Football Playoff fate is anything but a guarantee.
It still has No. 1 Miami on the schedule, with the two set to play in South Bend on November 7. If Notre Dame doesn't win that game, could it be on the outside looking in at the College Football Playoff for a second year in a row?
Here's what the latest projections from around the country say about Notre Dame's latest playoff chances.
Sports Illustrated
Notre Dame is given the No. 8 seed in the latest Sports Illustrated projections. The outlet has Notre Dame beating No. 9 Texas Tech in the First Round before beating No. 1 BYU in a rematch in the Fiesta Bowl.
It does however have the Fighting Irish eventually losing to No. 4 Miami in the Sugar Bowl, which would be the national semi-final.
College Football News
Pete Fiutak of College Football News is still extremely high on Notre Dame, giving the Irish a projection to be the No. 3 seed in the CFP. He has them playing No. 11 LSU in the Cotton Bowl, and eventually taking on No. 5 Georgia in the national championship.
ESPN
Schlabach of ESPN has Notre Dame getting into the College Football Playoff as the No. 11 seed and beating No. 6 Wake Forest in the First Round. He then has Notre Dame beating No. 3 Ohio State in the second round before bowing out to Miami in the national semi-final.
Bonagura of ESPN does not have Notre Dame participating in a postseason bowl game, but gives no explanation. The assumption would be that it is truly the CFP or bust for Notre Dame in 2026.
CBS Sports
The latest from CBS Sports has Notre Dame in the CFP, but a heavy price to pay comes with losing to BYU. The outlet has Notre Dame earning the No. 11 seed and getting a date at No. 6 Tennessee, in the rowdy Neyland Stadium.
Nick Shepkowski's Notre Dame Postseason Projection
The loss to BYU costs Notre Dame significantly.
What happens with Notre Dame and Miami? That answer tells you where Notre Dame ends up in the postseason.
A win and a top-four seed are still in the picture. Lose and not making the College Football Playoff is a real threat.
It's not that I'm in love with what I've seen from Notre Dame in big games the last two seasons, but I'm not as high on Miami as some people are.
I think Notre Dame wins that game and ends up hosting a home College Football Playoff game as the No. 5 seed, taking on No. 12 James Madison.
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Published
Managing Editor for Notre Dame On SI. Started covering Chicago sports teams for WSCR the Score, and over the years worked with CBS Radio, Audacy, NBC Sports, and FOX Sports as a contributor before running the Notre Dame wire site for USA TODAY.