Security risk and geopolitics consultant Fidel Amakye Owusu has cautioned Ghana against entering into new energy agreements without carefully assessing the potential long-term risks, warning that large investment commitments could expose the country to challenges that outweigh their immediate benefits.
“No matter how big the bag that firm is carrying in terms of money, it’s risky to do business with. So yes, that money can come as investment, but later you will suffer for that because it might not be as clean as you want it to be. So yes, some investment may be successful, but there are a lot of long-term risks,” he said in an interview with Ismail Akwei.
The chief executive officer of DefSEC Analytics Africa Ltd. said Ghana must weigh the potential benefits of foreign investment against the financial and operational risks, particularly as US sanctions on Russian oil companies raise questions about international commercial relationships.
Africa must strengthen its negotiating position
Fidel Amakye Owusu said Ghana should carefully consider what it stands to gain from joining international groupings, arguing that African countries could achieve more by negotiating collectively rather than approaching major powers individually.
Discussing BRICS, he said the bloc emerged partly from the desire of emerging economies to challenge the dominance of a Western-led global economic system and create a counterweight to established powers.
However, he questioned whether African countries had done enough to build the unity necessary to negotiate on more equal terms with larger economies such as China, India and Russia.
“How has Africa worked towards integrating so that we could have been on this block as a continent rather than as individual countries? Have we tried that?” he asked.
Fidel Amakye Owusu argued that African countries risk perpetuating their unequal position in the global system when they engage powerful economies individually instead of using the continent’s collective economic and demographic weight.
“Why can’t Africa come together and be a member state of BRICS?” he said. “I believe that we’ve not done enough internally. So joining a new organisation as individual states only perpetuates the kind of exploitation that we often face. But if we are going as a continent, our weight is bigger.”
He pointed to Africa’s 54 sovereign states and population of approximately 1.4 billion as potential sources of collective bargaining power.
“When we are together, 54 sovereign states with 1.4 billion population, when we are talking, we are talking with weight,” he said, contrasting that position with the difficulty an individual African country could face when negotiating with economic giants.
Lukoil’s interest raises questions
Lukoil Overseas Ghana Limited holds a 38 per cent participating interest in the Deepwater Tano Cape Three Points block. Pecan Energies holds 50 per cent, the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) holds 10 per cent, and Fueltrade Exploration and Production Limited holds the remaining two per cent, according to Ghana’s Petroleum Register.
The US Treasury designated Lukoil and Rosneft under its Russia sanctions programme in October 2025. Lukoil subsequently pursued the sale of its international assets, raising questions about the future ownership of some of its overseas interests.
Asked about the implications for Ghana’s existing relationship with Lukoil, he said the country should distinguish between agreements already signed and potential new commitments.
“You see, that has to do with pragmatism…Until that expiration date, you are supposed to uphold the sanctity of that deal. You cannot say, well, because of the war in Ukraine, that should stop… It depends on how you protect your interests. If there’s going to be some renegotiation, it depends on you how you can protect your interest,” he said.
Fidel Owusu Amakye said that, based on his understanding, Ghana had not signed new deals with Lukoil since Russia’s war in Ukraine began.
“Ever since the Ukraine war and the sanctions that were imposed, Ghana has not signed any new deal with Lukoil. What we know is what has been there, unless there’s some information that I’m not privy to,” he said.
He warned against entering into new agreements without fully considering the changed circumstances.
“But in terms of if you went ahead to sign new deals, then that means you are just walking into some kind of minefield that could take your legs off,” he added.
Ghana must maximise benefits
Beyond financial and operational risks, he said Ghana should ensure that foreign investment delivers lasting benefits through local employment, skills development and stronger domestic industry.
He pointed to the growing emphasis on resource nationalism across Africa, where governments are seeking to secure greater economic returns from their natural resources.
“Every country is seeking to maximise the benefit from its resources,” he said, adding that global demand for resources had encouraged countries to strengthen their position in negotiations with international investors.
Fidel Amakye Owusu distinguished resource nationalism from nationalisation, arguing that the former should focus on increasing the benefits a country receives from its resources.
“Resource nationalism does not necessarily mean resource nationalisation. Resource nationalisation is quite radical. But resource nationalising means maximising what you get from your resources,” he said.
For Ghana, this means assessing whether energy partnerships create opportunities for Ghanaian businesses, transfer technical expertise and strengthen the country’s ability to manage its own resources.
He also argued that Africa’s natural resources give its countries leverage in negotiations with international partners.
“If you are not going to give me capital, if you are going to support me, I’ll give my resources to who I want to give it to,” he said.
He called for continued democratic oversight and transparency in Ghana’s oil sector, urging authorities to identify and reject investments carrying unacceptable long-term risks before commitments are made.
“We should keep it clean and open so that when some investments are coming in, we think that this has inherent long-term risk, we stop it before it gets there,” he said.