Andy Burnham must not rush any commitment to rejoin the EU, senior pro-Europe Labour figures have warned.
The Prime Minister opened the door to reversing Brexit in his party conference speech last month, triggering a wave of party big beasts, think-tanks and pollsters making the case for rejoining.
But senior Labour figures who regard themselves as pro-EU fear a rushed commitment or campaign could backfire.
They told The i Paper that Burnham would need to be honest with the public about the realistic options for future EU relations and any trade-offs.
Without this, they fear another 2016-style debate dominated by questionable claims that could lose them the battle over Brexit again.
The i Paper revealed on Friday that Burnham’s Cabinet is split over whether the UK should rejoin the EU and there are further divisions over whether or not to hold a second referendum.
Pro-Europe Labour politicians are urging Burnham to work with the EU to produce a realistic set of options and be open about the trade-offs of each one so that any debate is not dominated by speculation over what might be possible.
They want the Prime Minister to put himself front and centre of any campaign for his preferred option, and to sell the benefits for key policy issues such as the economy, immigration, defence and AI.
There are also warnings that the Prime Minister would likely have to hold a second referendum if he wants to convince the EU, which is nervous of any decision simply being reversed again by a future government, to back the UK rejoining, as well as win over the public.
The options on the table
Labour Movement for Europe (LME) chair Stella Creasy told The i Paper there are now many more options on the table for UK-EU relations than during the so-called Brexit wars from 2016 to 2019, including the associate membership offered to Canada or a Swiss-style bespoke close relationship with Brussels.
Amid reports that the Treasury could be asked to produce an analysis of the different Brexit options, Creasy warned against a shopping list of rigid, pre-existing off-the-shelf agreements such as rejoin, or membership of the single market, or customs union.
The MP said: “It is going to need more than an options paper to truly understand what the options ahead of us are and the pros and cons, as well as what Europe would work with us on – it is not just us.”
This must be combined with work on how the UK’s relationship with the EU affects major policy choices domestically, according to Creasy, whose LME group is currently briefing Labour MPs on the last 10 years of UK-EU relations to get them up to speed for the debate ahead.
“Europe is still seen as a standalone issue and that’s probably the biggest problem of all,” she said.
“You cannot have growth without access to your biggest trading bloc next door to you.
“You cannot have security without closer cooperation with your neighbours.
“You cannot have border control on your own.
“AI – we can pass all the laws we want on AI but we are not big enough on our own to shift the dial.”
A ‘debate in the dark’
A former Cabinet minister, who wants a UK-EU group to bring together the options, said: “There has to be a body of work here that is actually willing to look very honestly at the trade-offs.”
“One of the problems is that we seem to be having a debate in the dark; we seem to be saying what would the EU want if we were to rejoin?
“Would they want Schengen and the Euro? I suspect not.
“What does the EU want for a customs union? This needs to be fleshed out.
“That is the work that needs to happen; if you want a genuine look at all these, you have got to have a genuine conversation with the EU about what these things involve.”
Tom Baldwin, a former senior party adviser who was one of the leaders of the People’s Vote campaign which pushed for a second referendum between 2018 and 2019, said it was “important that people don’t try and refight 2016”.
He said Burnham’s decision to highlight Russian interference in the 2016 referendum was a “mistake in that context” because “it sets off very familiar arguments on the other side about whether we think the referendum result was legitimate and no good will come of that”.
Instead, he argued, the issue should be framed around defence and security, particularly as Donald Trump pulls the US away from Europe. He said greater collaboration was also needed to make Europe a serious player in AI and tackle the ongoing refugee crisis, which could worsen as a result of climate change.
Baldwin said: “The best approach to this is to recognise the world has changed a lot since 2016, Europe has changed a lot, we’ve changed a lot and it’s an entirely different set of arguments, or at least in different circumstances about building shared capacity and capability to meet the towering challenge of our times.”
Rejoin campaign ‘a recipe for division’
Another former Cabinet minister warned Labour figures against restarting a campaign to rejoin: “I won’t be involved in that. [It] seems like a recipe for division and self-flagellation to me. Have they looked at what’s happening in French and German politics? I think there’s a big difference between pragmatically getting closer, which I support, and rejoining.”
Pro-Europe figures are also nervous about suggestions that a second referendum would not be needed, and that putting the idea in a general election manifesto would amount to a mandate.
“Many are of the view that a second referendum is needed because we left under a referendum, though of course our constitution doesn’t demand it,” a pro-EU Labour source said.
“If a second vote is held it should be a simple question based on a concrete, negotiated deal, and without the circus of independent campaigns.”
Ex-chancellor weighing up Brexit intervention
Elsewhere, Burnham was told he will need to do the heavy lifting on the debate, and not expect others to lead a campaign for whatever his preferred option is, not least because his Cabinet is viewed as split on the issue.
Some big beast former Cabinet ministers are believed to be weighing up pro-EU interventions, with ex-chancellor Rachel Reeves said by several sources to be taking soundings.
One source said Reeves was considering a major speech touching on the EU in the US during the mid-term election campaign.
But the pro-EU source said: “If I was advising her, I’d say please don’t. The Prime Minister should lead this conversation, and be given the space to do so.”
Baldwin added: “In the end, much of this will come down to whether there is political leadership.
“It’s for Burnham to set a course and bring everyone with him.
“No one thinks this will be an easy task and there is no guarantee of success. The next few weeks will show whether he has the courage and capacity to try.”
Others, however, view Burnham’s move to announce a range of options as a way to let Labour have the debate without restrictions and he could then back the majority view.
David Henig, UK director of the European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE), said: “Burnham seems to want to free up the party to have this debate in public and see where it ends up.”