New Delhi: Global plans to expand nuclear power capacity could face growing challenges from uranium supply constraints, as production from existing mines is projected to decline sharply even as demand for nuclear fuel rises, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) Nuclear Technology Review 2026.
The report highlights a widening gap between the world's nuclear energy ambitions and the mining and fuel-processing infrastructure needed to support them, raising concerns over future supply security and the investments required to develop new uranium resources.
"In contrast to the future doubling of uranium requirements, uranium production from existing mines is forecast to decrease by at least 50% by 2040," the IAEA stated in its annual review.
The report, which examines major developments in nuclear technology during 2025, said global uranium requirements could increase by 50 to 144 per cent by 2050, according to projections from the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and IAEA's Uranium 2024: Resources, Production and Demand report.
These projections indicate that annual uranium requirements could reach between 90,045 tonnes and 142,631 tonnes by 2050, compared with approximately 60,000 tonnes currently used as the baseline.
However, expanding uranium supplies may prove challenging because developing new mines requires significant investment and long lead times.
"New mines and the expansion or life extension of existing mines, as well as the reopening of idled mines, will be required for assurance of supply in the future," the report said.
It noted that developing a new uranium mine typically takes 10 to 15 years from the discovery of a deposit to the beginning of mining operations.
The challenges are not limited to uranium extraction. The IAEA also flagged growing pressure on the infrastructure required to process nuclear fuel.
"The global nuclear fuel supply chain is facing growing imbalances. Conversion capacity is already insufficient and is projected to fall further behind demand through 2040," the report stated.
The agency noted that although global uranium enrichment capacity currently exceeds demand, it remains unevenly distributed across countries, creating additional supply-chain concerns.
These challenges come as countries increasingly look towards nuclear energy to meet rising electricity demand, improve energy security and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
The expansion of artificial intelligence and data centres is also contributing to interest in nuclear power as a source of reliable electricity.
The IAEA said the nuclear industry would need to address financing, project costs and regulatory challenges to accelerate the construction of new reactors.
For India, which aims to increase its nuclear power capacity to 100 GW by 2047, the global supply-chain challenges highlight the importance of securing reliable fuel supplies and developing the infrastructure required for long-term expansion.
The report indicates that the pace of future nuclear expansion will depend not only on building reactors but also on timely investment in uranium mining, fuel processing and supporting infrastructure.