Prediction Markets: Football
Prediction markets give Palmeiras a 66.5% chance of winning the Copa Libertadores, South America’s Champions League, after both semi-finals went to penalties. Palmeiras meet Estudiantes de La Plata in the final on Saturday 28 November.
Key Facts
—Prediction markets. Polymarket prices Palmeiras at 66.5% for the Libertadores final (read 5:33 am ET, Friday 23 October).
—Liga MX. Polymarket gives América 33% for the Apertura title. América lead with 27 points.
—Brazil. Polymarket has Flamengo at 62% and Palmeiras at 33% for the Série A title.
—Sudamericana. Polymarket prices Boca Juniors at 53% and Atlético Mineiro at 44.9% for the 21 November final.
—Africa. Polymarket makes Morocco the 33.5% favourite for AFCON 2027. Egypt are 66% in Group B.
For readers in the United States, this weekend is about league races rather than single matches. Mexico’s Liga MX plays round 14, and Brazil’s Série A plays round 32, with Flamengo off until Monday.
No single-match market reached our US$10,000 threshold this week. We therefore show the season markets, with their change since our 14 October snapshot, and the fixtures that bear most on them.
In Plain English
—Price = chance. A price of 66.5% means a contract that pays US$1 if Palmeiras win costs about 66.5 US cents.
—Polymarket and Kalshi. Both are exchanges where people trade yes-or-no contracts on real events. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC.
—Copa Libertadores. South America’s top club competition, like the Champions League. The Sudamericana is its second-tier cousin.
—Série A and Liga MX. The top leagues of Brazil and Mexico. Mexico splits its year into two short tournaments, the Apertura and the Clausura.
What Prediction Markets Say
Prices are bets by traders, not forecasts by The Rio Times. Polymarket counts volume in US dollars, while Kalshi counts contracts worth up to US$1 each.
Many of the markets below have only tens of thousands of dollars traded. A single large bet can therefore move a price.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
This Weekend’s Matches
Mexican kick-offs below are Mexico City time, which is two hours behind New York until the US clocks change on 1 November. Brazilian kick-offs are Brasília time, one hour ahead of New York.
Liga MX Apertura, Round 14
León host Toluca on Saturday 24 October at 5:00 pm (7:00 pm ET) at the Estadio Nou Camp. Toluca have 22 points and León have 21.
Monterrey host Guadalajara (Chivas) on Saturday at 7:00 pm (9:00 pm ET) at the Estadio BBVA. Chivas have 23 points in second place, and Monterrey have 20 in seventh after beating Puebla 4–1.
Pumas host Tigres on Saturday at 9:00 pm (11:00 pm ET) at the Estadio Olímpico Universitario. On Sunday 25 October, América face Pachuca and Querétaro host Cruz Azul.
Brazil Série A, Round 32
Palmeiras host Bragantino on Saturday 24 October at 6:30 pm in Brasília (5:30 pm ET). The game is at the Arena Barueri outside São Paulo, because the club’s own Nubank Parque is being prepared for Iron Maiden concerts.
Flamengo, who are on 67 points to Palmeiras’ 66, do not play until Monday 26 October. They host Atlético-MG at the Maracanã at 8:00 pm in Brasília (7:00 pm ET), according to Máquina do Esporte.
Further down, Vasco host Corinthians on Saturday at 6:30 pm in Brasília, and Chapecoense face Fluminense at 7:30 pm. Coritiba host Grêmio on Monday at 7:30 pm.
Latin America Title Races
Libertadores: Palmeiras 66.5%, Estudiantes 31.1%
Palmeiras beat Fluminense 5–3 on penalties on Wednesday 21 October, after a 1–0 home loss left the tie level at 2–2. Estudiantes then beat Flamengo 3–2 on penalties at the Maracanã on Thursday, after two goalless legs.
Polymarket’s winner market has US$37,721 traded and lists Palmeiras at 66.5%. On our 14 October snapshot Palmeiras were 27%, so the price has moved about 40 points since then.
Polymarket’s 2027 Libertadores market has Palmeiras at 27.5% and Flamengo at 20.5%. It has only US$20,801 traded.
Sudamericana: Boca Juniors 53%
Atlético Mineiro lost 2–0 at Montevideo City Torque on Wednesday but went through 3–2 on aggregate. They meet Boca Juniors on Saturday 21 November in Barranquilla, Colombia.
Brazil: Flamengo lead by one point
Flamengo lead the Série A with 67 points after 31 rounds, and Palmeiras have 66 from 19 wins, 9 draws and 3 defeats. Athletico-PR are third on 53, so this is a two-horse race.
Polymarket prices Flamengo at 62% and Palmeiras at 33%, with US$51,281 traded. On 14 October the pair were at 63% and 38%.
At the bottom, Polymarket prices Remo at 97.9% and Chapecoense at 97.5% to go down. Grêmio are at 55.5% and Internacional at 52%, on US$19,170 traded.
Mexico: América pull clear
América beat Atlas 5–2 on Wednesday and lead the table on 27 points, four ahead of Chivas and Cruz Azul. With four rounds left before the playoffs, the top eight is taking shape.
Polymarket’s Apertura market, with US$115,178 traded, prices América at 33%, Guadalajara at 16%, Toluca at 13.6% and Cruz Azul at 13.5%. América were 17.5% on 14 October.
Kalshi’s Clausura market, which covers the next tournament, has 553,069 contracts traded. América trade at about 22%, between a 21-cent bid and a 23-cent ask, with Cruz Azul and Guadalajara near 14% and 11%.
For the 2026–27 top scorer, Juan Brunetta leads at 15.6%, on US$29,170. Club América are 29.5% in the largest goal-difference market, ahead of Toluca at 25.5%.
Relegation elsewhere in the region
In Colombia’s Primera A, Polymarket prices Boyacá Chicó at 99% and Jaguares at 76% to be relegated, on US$23,345. Cúcuta Deportivo fell from 22.5% to 3.9% since 14 October.
In Peru’s Liga 1, UTC Cajamarca are at 87.5%, Deportivo Moquegua at 60% and ADT at 44.5%, on US$22,231. In Bolivia, GV San José are at 78% and Real Tomayapo at 48.5%.
These are “teams relegated” markets, so several clubs can each sit above 50%. They are thin, and one order can swing a price.
Africa
Every African market above our threshold this week is about the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations, which Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda host together. No African league or club-competition market reached US$10,000.
Polymarket’s winner market has US$17,660 traded. It prices Morocco at 33.5%, Senegal at 18%, Ivory Coast at 10.1%, Egypt at 7%, Ghana at 5.7% and South Africa at 5.5%.
The group-winner markets run to 31 March 2027. Egypt are 66% in Group B, with Angola down from 28% on 14 October to 11%.
South Africa are 68.5% in Group D, Mali 65% in Group K (up from 55.5%) and Nigeria 60.5% in Group L. Burkina Faso are 59.5% in Group F and Tunisia 59% in Group H.
Each of these group markets has between US$11,713 and US$21,897 traded. That is small next to the Liga MX and Libertadores books.
What It Means for US Readers
Mexican and Brazilian clubs have large followings among Mexican-American and Brazilian-American fans. The prices give those fans, and anyone new to the sport, a quick read on who traders expect to win.
Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC, while Polymarket’s public data is open to all. We link to our own coverage and public data only, and we offer no betting tips or links to betting sites.
The next big events are the Sudamericana final on 21 November and the Libertadores final on 28 November. Our daily Latin America Sports Daily covers the results, and last week’s odds preview shows how far prices have moved.
Our live boards are on the Latin America odds hub and the Africa odds hub. They update through the day, so the prices there may differ from those read here.
What Is Not Known
We do not have confirmed line-ups or injury lists for round 14 in Mexico or round 32 in Brazil, and weather could change the games. Fixtures and kick-off times are subject to change.
Prices in thin markets can move on a single trade, and Série A sides often rotate players around cup ties. Both effects can shift the title markets before Sunday night.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who do prediction markets favour in the Copa Libertadores final?
Polymarket prices Palmeiras at 66.5% and Estudiantes de La Plata at 31.1%, with US$37,721 traded. The final is on Saturday 28 November in Montevideo.
Who is the favourite for the Liga MX title?
Polymarket prices América at 33% to win the Apertura, ahead of Guadalajara at 16%. América lead the table with 27 points after 12 games.
Who is favourite to win the Brazilian Série A?
Flamengo, at 62% on Polymarket, against 33% for Palmeiras. Flamengo lead by one point, 67 to 66, with seven rounds left.
Who is favoured to win the Africa Cup of Nations in 2027?
Polymarket prices Morocco at 33.5%, ahead of Senegal at 18% and Ivory Coast at 10.1%. The market has US$17,660 traded, so the prices are a rough guide.
Are these predictions or bets?
They are prices set by real-money traders on Polymarket and Kalshi, not forecasts by The Rio Times. We show them next to league tables and results, never instead of them.