BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 16 October, 11:42 p.m. ET · Source: Metrópoles, ICL Notícias, 98 FM Natal and a TV Globo statement
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Friday 16 October, Lula said TV Globo, Brazil’s largest broadcaster, is “under suspicion” of his campaign and “does not merit trust.”
- The trigger Flávio Bolsonaro lunched at Globo’s Rio de Janeiro headquarters with group president João Roberto Marinho hours before his Jornal Nacional interview that evening.
- Globo’s answer The network calls it an institutional visit and says no journalism leaders took part.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.2% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (16 October, 11:40 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 77% (Lula: 23% and 22%), as of 17 October, 12:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Neither campaign has said whether the dispute will change the debate or interview rules for the final week.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said on Friday 16 October that TV Globo, Brazil’s largest broadcaster, is “under suspicion” of his campaign after his rival lunched with its executives. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative candidate, had met Globo’s leadership hours before his prime-time Jornal Nacional interview.
The row lands nine days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff, when Brazilians choose the president of Latin America’s largest economy. For US readers, it shows how heated the final stretch has become, in a race that moves Brazilian assets and trade with Washington.
What Lula Said About Globo
Speaking at a campaign event in Ipatinga, in Minas Gerais state, Lula said Flávio “went to have lunch with the direction of Globo on the day of his interview,” 98 FM Natal reported. He added: “From today, Globo is under suspicion of my candidacy. It does not merit trust.”
Lula tied the network’s alleged hostility to four things his government did or promised, the same report said: its curbs on betting, approval of ending the six-day work week, a promise of free weekend public transport, and the arrest of banker Daniel Vorcaro. We have not seen evidence for that link, and Globo has not addressed it.
What Globo and the Campaigns Say
Globo confirmed the meeting in a statement quoted by ICL Notícias. It said Flávio paid “an institutional visit” to the Rio de Janeiro headquarters and was received by João Roberto Marinho and Paulo Tonet, vice president for institutional relations, with no journalism leaders present.
Flávio was accompanied by Senator Rogério Marinho, his campaign coordinator, and a press adviser, Metrópoles reported. Allies of Lula were irritated that the lunch came on the day of the interview, while Lula had no similar meeting before his own on Thursday 15 October.
Globo also said, 98 FM Natal reported, that it would have received Lula as well had his campaign asked for a meeting. That is Globo’s account, and the Lula campaign has not confirmed or answered it.
Why the Broadcaster Matters in the Runoff
Globo’s news programme Jornal Nacional is a flagship evening news programme in Brazil, and both runoff candidates have faced its long interviews. Lula sat for his on Thursday 15 October and Flávio on Friday 16 October.
A candidate saying a leading broadcaster no longer merits trust is rare, and it can shape how supporters read later coverage. Our Brazil election polls tracker shows a close race as the final week begins.
What It Means for US Readers
For investors in Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed Brazilian shares, a campaign fight over the media is noise rather than a policy signal. What moves prices is the polling, and the Brazil election odds show how bettors read it.
For anyone watching US-Brazil relations, the quarrel shows a campaign defending its message against the largest platform in the country. Either result will leave a government that must work with a divided electorate and a sceptical press.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders price a Flávio Bolsonaro win of the 25 October runoff at 77.2% and a Lula win at 23.5% (16 October, 11:40 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has seen about US$185 million traded.
Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), also lists markets on the runoff margin. These are bets, not polls, and they can move within minutes of news.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77.2% · Lula 22.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · Lula 22%
As of 17 October, 12:20 am ET (05:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
We have not seen a recording of Lula’s remarks, and Globo had not publicly answered the four-decision claim at the time of writing. It is not known whether Lula’s campaign will refuse future Globo requests or whether either side will take the matter to the electoral court (TSE).
It is also unclear whether the row will change any voter’s mind. The next polls, due before 25 October, will show whether it registers.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Lula say about Globo on 16 October?
He said that from that day Globo is under suspicion of his candidacy and does not merit trust. He spoke at a campaign event in Ipatinga, Minas Gerais.
Why is Lula upset with Globo?
Flávio Bolsonaro lunched with Globo group president João Roberto Marinho and another executive hours before his Jornal Nacional interview. Lula said he had no such lunch before his own interview on 15 October.
What does Globo say about the lunch?
Globo says it was an institutional visit to its Rio de Janeiro headquarters with no journalism leaders present. It has not publicly answered Lula’s claim about his government’s decisions.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, nine days after this row. The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) publishes the official result.
Sources: Metrópoles, 16 October 2026; ICL Notícias, 16 October 2026; 98 FM Natal, 16 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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