2027: North angry with Tinubu’s govt – Rufai Oseni

Arise Television presenter Rufai Oseni has warned that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) should not assume it enjoys widespread support in Northern Nigeria ahead of the 2027 general elections, saying dissatisfaction with President Bola Tinubu’s administration could affect the party’s performance.

He gave the assessment on Monday during Morning Show, where he discussed political alignments and public sentiment ahead of the elections.

Oseni argued that the enthusiastic reception some politicians receive during public engagements in the North should not automatically be interpreted as electoral support, noting that financial inducements and public displays of loyalty might not translate into votes.

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The broadcaster said his position was based on his assessment of public sentiment and the political atmosphere in the region, while acknowledging that his views could attract criticism over the generalisation of opinions across the North.

“Do not deceive yourself, you see, politicians are the most delusional and the most optimistic people on earth.

“Because you are giving tonnes of people money in the north, they are shouting your name; they are saying everything is well. Elections will shock you. Do not deceive yourself.

“The north is not happy with this administration,” Oseni said.

He acknowledged that critics might challenge his assessment for lacking sufficient empirical evidence but maintained that gauging public opinion and observing political trends were relevant to understanding voters’ mood.

“I know a lot of people will come back at me and say that’s a fallacy of hasty generalisation.

“But it’s an opinion gathering. It’s about feeling the pulse of the people in the north. It’s feeling the trajectory of what is happening in the north.

“Clearly, I know you’re going to ask me what’s the empirical data. Obviously, when you check a lot of public sentiment analysis, you see that obviously, to a large extent,” he added.

Oseni also questioned the level of commitment the APC could expect from governors who defected to the party amid the crisis and fragmentation within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

He suggested that some of the governors might have joined the ruling party because of circumstances surrounding their former political platform rather than a longstanding preference for the APC.

“Will the APC be able to trust the complete commitments of the governors that came to the fold of the APC because of the disintegration of the PDP? That’s another factor,” he said.

Describing the defections as a political arrangement shaped by circumstances, Oseni questioned whether the governors would fully commit to the APC if the PDP had not experienced internal divisions.

“You see, it’s a strange marriage arrangement. They just had to come to the APC, not because if they had a choice, if their own party was not disintegrated, or had not gone through the metamorphosis, do you think they’re going to come?

“So, are they going to be able to give their full commitment and just sweep everything off like that? It’s going to be interesting,” he said.