Affordability pressures and competition for household spending are likely to shape SA’s over-the-top video market growth.
South Africa’s over-the-top (OTT) video market is forecast to grow more slowly than the markets in Kenya and Nigeria over the next five years, as SA’s entertainment and media industry continues shifting towards digital consumption.
According to the PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) Africa Entertainment and Media (E&M) Outlook 2026–2030, SA’s OTT video revenue is projected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% through 2030, compared with 15.9% in Kenya and 20.4% in Nigeria.
PwC forecasts SA’s total E&M revenue will rise from $16.6 billion (R301.8 billion) in 2025, to $19.4 billion (R352.4 billion) by 2030, representing a 3.2% CAGR.
The outlook points to differing stages of market development across the continent. SA’s more mature E&M sector is expected to continue expanding, but its streaming growth forecast trails the pace anticipated in the other two markets.
The projections suggest the local market’s digital transition is taking place alongside an established traditional television sector.
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While traditional television revenue is forecast to decline in SA, it is expected to continue growing in Kenya and Nigeria, although at a slower pace than OTT services.
“South Africa already has the largest and most established OTT market of the three countries. Its existing subscriber base means growth increasingly depends on attracting additional subscribers, retaining existing customers and persuading consumers to spend more, rather than building an audience from a smaller starting point. Kenya and Nigeria have greater scope to expand as digital consumption grows,” states the outlook report.
Affordability pressures and competition for household spending are also factors likely to shape SA’s OTT growth, as streaming subscriptions compete with internet connectivity costs, traditional television and other digital entertainment platforms, says PwC.
“Consumers may cancel subscriptions, switch between services or opt for cheaper, advertising-supported packages as they balance entertainment spending against other expenses. Although streaming is gaining ground, traditional television remains a significant part of the market, pointing to a gradual shift in viewing habits rather than a wholesale move to OTT.”
The relatively lower average revenue generated per OTT subscription could provide scope for further subscriber growth in SA, notes the report.
By 2030, average annual OTT revenue per subscription is forecast to reach $76 in SA, compared with $54 in Kenya and $42 in Nigeria. The global average is expected to exceed $100.
The figures highlight differences in the revenue generated per subscription across the markets, while indicating potential room for expansion as digital audiences grow.
According to PwC, the availability, quality and affordability of internet access will influence how quickly South African audiences adopt data-intensive entertainment services, including streaming, gaming and connected television.
By 2030, 5G subscription penetration in SA is forecast to reach 86.8%, ahead of Kenya at 51.6% and Nigeria at 35.3%.
Fixed broadband is also growing faster than mobile services across the three markets, strengthening the infrastructure for digital media consumption.
Nana Madikane, Africa technology, media and telecommunications industry leader at PwC, says expanding connectivity creates opportunities for E&M companies to reach more consumers and develop new revenue streams.
“Africa’s E&M industry is entering an exciting new phase, but there is no single growth story across the continent. What connects them is the expanding digital audience.
“As connectivity becomes faster, more reliable and more accessible, the opportunity is increasingly about how businesses use this growing connectivity to reach new consumers, expand their E&M offerings and unlock new revenue opportunities.”